US's economy has fully recovered?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Saint, Mar 13, 2012.

  1. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    3,447
    Your stock market's indices are historically high,
    unemployment rate drops.
    So, Americans have more money to pay housing mortgage/loan,
    more money to go for shopping?
     
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  3. Rhaedas Valued Senior Member

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    The stock market is back where it was several years ago before the decline. Not that stock market numbers really mean a lot overall. It's the trends that's important. The important trend now is that we haven't started another spiral downward. Yet.

    Unemployment is still high, and will fluctuate as more people decide they can start looking for jobs or get retrained for the newer tech ones that are out there now.

    I didn't realize we had more money. Lots of housing still have less value on the market than what's owned on them, those that haven't been foreclosed or abandoned. Why would that change overnight?

    It's a lot easier to break something than to fix it. We've got a ways to go, and possibly more bad times ahead, especially if the EU has more problems.
     
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  5. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    Dowe Jone is 13000 now
     
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  7. Fraggle Rocker Staff Member

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    The U.S. economy is by no means fully recovered. Unemployment is still very high. The reason the official figures seem low is that they don't count people who have given up and stopped looking for work (for example, going back to school and/or moving back in with their parents), or people who have taken very low-paying jobs that don't quite provide enough money to live on.

    The housing market is still terrible. There is a vast surplus of empty houses that no one can afford to buy. And the banks are so frightened of what happened last time that they're reluctant to write mortgages for average people with average finances, making it difficult for people to even consider buying a home of their own.

    Many older people are destitute because their savings were wiped out in the crash of 2008, and so were their pension funds. A lot of them now have only Social Security for income, and Social Security doesn't really pay enough to live on. They can't sell their houses for a profit and move into a smaller place, which is what older people have always done, because no one can afford to buy them.

    At this point we'll be satisfied if we can be sure that the economy is improving so there is hope for the future. It is still not entirely clear that it won't go into decline again. If there's a crash in Europe it will cascade throughout the world and everyone will be affected, since the world economy is not strong right now.

    The few countries that are booming, like Germany, China and Brazil (which, I learned to my amazement, is now the world's sixth largest economy), are highly dependent on international commerce for their prosperity. If their trading partners start to go down, they will be in big trouble too.

    We're no different. The USA cannot have a strong economy without strong trading partners. Despite our image as an industrial nation covered with concrete and steel, a large portion of our territory is farmland and we are one of the world's largest exporters of food (corn, for example). When people become poor they can't pay as much for food and we'll all be screwed.
     
  8. quadraphonics Bloodthirsty Barbarian Valued Senior Member

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    Since when do the official figures seem "low?" The BLM ones are still above 8% - that's "high," at least for the USA.

    That's not true. In fact, it cannot be true, by definition. Houses are necessarily only worth what you can get somebody to pay for them. So if people aren't able to pay what the seller would like, then what's happening is that the owner can't afford to sell them. Unrealistic expectations on the seller side are just that - they are not the same thing as a lack of buyers.

    The surplus of empty unsold houses is owned by banks, and the banks are intentionally keeping them off of the market in order to avoid crashing house prices, and so their larger portfolios. They'd have no trouble selling them at market rates if they wanted to - and that's exactly why they aren't doing it. They don't like how low market rates are, nor how much lower they'd go if the stock of empty houses flooded the market.

    That's not really true either. People with good-or-better credit and solid jobs are having no trouble getting loans. But they are having trouble finding sellers who are willing to deal at market prices (and not fantasy 2007 prices). Buyers with poor qualifications are definitely out of luck, though.

    People can afford to buy them. It's just that the market value of the home no longer amounts to "a profit" for the owners and so the owners tend to prefer keeping the house and hoping the situation changes.

    Sellers desiring prices that vastly exceed market value is not the same thing as buyers being unable to afford to purchase at market value. An absence of people who want to overpay you is a problem with your own expectations, and not with the larger market conditions.
     
  9. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    20,285
    And what's your opinion on this sad state of affairs?

    What do you call a State where Banks control such large swaths (if not the entire) economy? Bankocracy?

    Maybe if you're a good little Cow, and play by the rules, a Technocrat will be so kind enough to bless you with an indulgence?
     
  10. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    27,402
    Western industrial.

    The label is for the general economic and political system that has supported some of the most free and prosperous people the world has ever seen, by the hundreds of millions.
     
  11. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    7,829
    Ah, that it's not a sad state of affairs?

    Like usual you grossly over-exaggerate in a negative fashion what is going on in the banking world.

    In the third quarter of 2011, there were 6.1 million empty homes for sale or rent, according to the Census Bureau, or 4.6% of all U.S. homes.

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    But even to return it to the late-2000 level of 3.5% only about 1.5 million empty homes would need to be filled.

    But because of population growth, the US creates about about one million more households a year.

    And home builders are building about 600,000 new homes each year.

    And about 300,000 homes get torn down each year.

    So even at today's rates the slight excess should be gone in ~two years, much less if the economy continues to improve as it has been doing recently.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2012
  12. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    3,447
    Who really have earned money from stock market?
    Does stock market's indices truly signal the recovery of the economy?
     
  13. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    I was specifically referring to the sad state of society in general. Whether you see it or not. But, don't worry, the shit is hitting the fan, even as we speak.

    Greece - run by an ex-GoldmanSux Technocrat.
    Italy - run by an ex-GoldmanSux Technocrat.
    The USA - hired more Goldies under Obama then under any previous president in history and is mired in multiple wars and a fat immoral apathetic society that's so bass-arse-backwards they think "stealing" is moral and like wolves around a goat vote who's going to get what.

    Just listen to the candidates:
    "I'm going to turn the economy around"
    "I'm going to blah blah blah"

    That's a sign Arthur. What I meant when I said: Sad State of Affairs. Is the USA is in a sad state - now. Today.

    Don't worry, the USA can only print so much paper money for only so long. One day, that's not going to work anymore. People won't want it. At least not at the crappy interest rates it's at now. That day is slowly approaching. But, it is approaching. Like watching a mile long train plow into a wall in super slow motion. It'll be really interesting to watch Americans deal with the "real" world. All that printing didn't work in Japan, and it isn't going to work in the USA either.

    Another sign I happen to notice is how many very productive people leaving. I meet all sorts of Americans in Asia. They're generally the hardworking no nonsense types. The types you'd actually want living IN the USA. They don't want to live there anymore. The successful and intelligent ones are leaving for Asia :shrug:
     
  14. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    What percentage of Americans are working in the productive part of society making real things. Not this bogus bullshit like "collateralized debt obligations" but REAL things?

    Wait until the war ends and the military has to downsize.
    When Americans can no longer afford a TSA agent with an IQ somewhere around 65 fingering their anus.

    Have you SEEN the sad state of Science in the USA? Something like 8 times more students go into "media production" or other hookey degrees that have nearly zero value in the real world. Meanwhile Asians are passing us like we're standing still. Well, we'll see.

    Go To Detroit, See The Future

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  15. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    A lot.

    The United States remains the world's largest manufacturing economy, generating 1.6 trillion dollars of output, 11 percent of the country's gross domestic product, according to a report issued on Tuesday.

    http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90858/90864/7313536.html

    United States exports were worth $181 Billion in January of 2012.

    Main exports are: machinery and equipment, industrial supplies, non-auto consumer goods, motor vehicles and parts, aircraft and parts, food, feed and beverages.
     
  16. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    Your ability to 'see' what's happening is totally distorted by your hatred for all things American.
     
  17. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    Is US still leading in R&D?
     
  18. darksidZz Valued Senior Member

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    Usa is doomeddddddddd
     
  19. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    That is not true.

    Not even in the least.
    Not even a tiny bit.

    #1) There's a group of people who think massive debt "solved" the Great Depression. That Technocrats should control the economy (which is another way of saying the Citizens themselves). That group (which includes Nobel laureates) think spending is what "pulled" us out the Depression.These twits forced farmers to destroy their own produce, caused famine, while at the same time Russian were starving to death. They think "Mother Knows Best". Joe once said he was more than happy to pay the Federal Reserve a 6% handlers fee for "keeping the economy on tract and "smoothing" out the bumps.

    These people are Cattle.

    #2) There's another group of people people who think the Federal Reserve caused the Great Depression, extended it, and because the government (against the wishes of people in camp #1) STOPPED spending after WWII we finally were able to become productive and this ended the Great Depression. This group also includes Nobel laureates. They think the power should reside with the people. The Federal Reserve is a menace and should NOT set interest rates (at the very least that should be left up to market forced).


    "Economists" in group #1 thought we couldn't "End the War". That ending it would destroy America as we'd have hundreds of thousands of returning workers entering a devastated economy with no jobs to support them. "Economists" in group #2 thought the government should get out of the way.

    Both groups think they are right. Both groups look at history and find precedents to support their beliefs.



    SO, how then do you then figure out what to do?
    That's when your personal internalized philosophy comes in.


    See, it's not only an interesting question - it's really the only important question.

    One which I tried to engage in and reason logically with you - but, you refuse to think logically.

    (1) If money is your property no one has the right to take it from you. Doing so is stealing.
    (2) Initiating force against someone who has done nothing to you is immoral.
    (3) The role of government is to uphold the Law NOT to rig the economy. Not to steal from Peter to pay Paul.


    So, no, I don't "Hate all things American". I just don't want to live in the Authoritarian Nanny State you envision for America :shrug:


    You're the one that hates Americans. You don't want them to be free and have liberty. You trust them so little you make them walk through TSA scanners. You happily steal their income through the vote. You force them to use Federal Reserve notes. You're happiest when the cattle are obedient and agree with you. You don't like change and you hate uncertainty. You love seeing cattle pumped through the State "educational" system. Nice numbed brain-dead ignorant obedient cattle - that's what you like. It makes you feel happy for some internalized reason that may have something to do with your childhood.

    Which is why I said: I was never ever spanked not even one time. I was always spoken to with reason and logic. I therefor find it quite easy to take freedom and liberty as my core philosophy.




    I will say this, I hope we're all still around when we're grandfathers. And I wonder if when you talk with your grandkids - you are going to be shocked at just how dumb obedient and subservient they are. The GFC will be history - but the loose of liberty will be with us for a long long time to come. Then MAYBE you'll get just what was important in life?
     
  20. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    Sure it is.

    In fact this is how you referred to Americans in just this post: Nice numbed brain-dead ignorant obedient cattle

    Your arguments against progressive income taxes are sophmoric, tedious and ultimately boring.
     
  21. spidergoat Venued Serial Membership Valued Senior Member

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    As I pointed out previously, it's not your money if you have already used or benefited indirectly from services that the government has provided. You can't go into a store and eat a candy bar then object when the cashier demands payment, saying that it's already in your stomach and so it's "your food".
     
  22. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    31,639
    adoucette:

    How does arguing against progressive income taxes equate to a "hatred of all things American"?

    Please explain.
     
  23. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    I never said that it did James.

    It was descriptive comments like this that created that impression:

    a fat immoral apathetic society that's so bass-arse-backwards they think "stealing" is moral and like wolves around a goat vote who's going to get what.
     

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