Trump's campaign manager has been told he will be indicted. What's that about no evidence?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by joepistole, Sep 19, 2017.

  1. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Wow, things are moving much faster than I expected. Apparently the FBI had Manafort under surveillance before the campaign and after the campaign. Apparently his phones had been wire tapped. Those wire taps could have picked up conversations with The Donald, and they probably did. Trump's probably shitting in his pants. I had given Trump until 2019 before impeachment. But at this rate; it's conceivable Trump could be impeached as soon as next year. I'm looking forward to hear how right-wing entertainment explains this development to Trump's base. https://www.vox.com/2017/9/18/16330978/paul-manafort-wiretap-indictment
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2017
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  3. Tiassa Let us not launch the boat ... Staff Member

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    Click for mixed metaphors.

    To the one, we kind of knew this was coming. To the other, as much as we want to play the sage political analyst, it's still a bit of exploding head.
     
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  5. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    So the first indictments have been handed out, sooner than expected, and we are supposed to find out who's at the head of the line on Monday.

    The bets on my lines are split between Manafort and Flynn (rough estimate 70/30) with some noting that the language suggests more than one person (http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/27/politics/first-charges-mueller-investigation/index.html) - so maybe Manafort and Flynn both? There's some hopeful speculation involving guys like Roger Stone and Carter Page.

    The motive speculations run from Mueller jumped the gun a bit because he was about to be fired by Trump and wanted to lock in the criminal proceedings, to Mueller agreeing to a deal similar to the deal that exonerated W&Cheney and closed off the Iraq War investigations at the price of Scooter Libby.

    Funny side: there are so many possibilities. There are literally dozens of possibly indictable people involved here, beginning with Trump's children and ending with anyone involved with his real estate dealings and Russians in the past fifteen years - it's a target rich environment.
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2017
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  7. Kittamaru Now nearly 40 pounds lighter. Staff Member

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  8. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    So is "conspiracy against the United States" a more pleasant way of saying "treason"?

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  9. Bells Staff Member

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    Actually, his isn't even that bad compared to another campaign adviser who just pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his contacts with the Russian Government, and it seems, while working as Trump's foreign policy adviser...

    And he is cooperating with the investigation.

    Expect many twitter meltdowns in the coming days.

    And.. Oh.. My..

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    Jesus..
     
  10. Kittamaru Now nearly 40 pounds lighter. Staff Member

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    Officially, treason is defined as:
    https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2381

    18 U.S. Code § 2381 - Treason
    Whoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason and shall suffer death, or shall be imprisoned not less than five years and fined under this title but not less than $10,000; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.

    (June 25, 1948, ch. 645, 62 Stat. 807; Pub. L. 103–322, title XXXIII, § 330016(2)(J), Sept. 13, 1994, 108 Stat. 2148.)

    For some, they claim that it must be "in times of war" due to the need for having "enemies". I don't quite agree with that idea - I think it is pretty safe to call Russia and North Korea "hostile foreign entities" at the least, "enemies" being the more blunt term.
     
  11. Bells Staff Member

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    Holy sheeet at Papadopoulos Statement of Offense..

    My mouth just fell open in shock.

    Manafort is small nothing compared to this..

    Defendant PAPADOPOULOS further told the investigating agents that the professor was "a nothing" and "just a guy talk[ing] up connections or something." In truth and in fact, however, defendant PAPADOPOULOS understood that the professor had substantial connections to Russian government officials (and had met with some of those officials in Moscow immediately prior to telling defendant PAPADOPOULOS about the "thousands of emails") and, over a period of months, defendant PAPADOPOULOS repeatedly sought to use the professor's Russian connections in an effort to arrange a meeting between the Campaign and Russian government officials.

    c. Defendant PAPADOPOULOS claimed he met a certain female Russian national before he joined the Campaign and that their communications consisted of emails such as, '"Hi, how are you?"' In truth and in fact, however, defendant PAPADOPOULOS met the female Russian national on or about March 24, 2016, after he had become an adviser to the Campaign; he believed that she had connections to Russian government officials; and he sought to use her Russian connections over a period of months in an effort to arrange a meeting between the Campaign and Russian government officials.

    3. Through his false statements and omissions, defendant PAPADOPOULOS impeded the FBI's ongoing investigation into the existence of any links or coordination between individuals associated with the Campaign and the Russian government's efforts to interfere with the 2016 presidential election.

    Headline news everywhere is on Manafort. But in reality, Papadopoulos is 100% worse for Trump.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2017
  12. Bells Staff Member

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    After one meeting took place.. As per the document linked above in my previous:

    On or about March 31, 2016, defendant PAPADOPOULOS attended a "national security meeting" in Washington, D.C., with then-candidate Trump and other foreign policy advisors for the Campaign. When defendant PAPADOPOULOS introduced himself to the group, he stated, in sum and substance, that he had connections that could help arrange a meeting between then-candidate Trump and President Putin.

    It then details his efforts to set up these meetings and how often he was in contact with the campaign to advise the Trump campaign of what he was doing and seeking advice, and the response was to go ahead and set up the various meetings, including yes, to try to obtain emails from the Russians..

    I don't understand why everyone is so focused on Manafort.. This is much worse for Trump and is showing that they knowingly colluded or attempted to collude.
     
  13. Kittamaru Now nearly 40 pounds lighter. Staff Member

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    Not to mention the fact that Papadopoulos had accepted a plea bargain back on October 5th... he's going to sing like a canary methinks.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...olicy-adviser-pleaded-guilty-in-mueller-probe

    There's of course the DOJ's summary of statement from here:
    https://www.justice.gov/file/1007346/download



    This... is going to be one helluva ride...
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2017
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  14. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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  15. Kittamaru Now nearly 40 pounds lighter. Staff Member

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  16. Tiassa Let us not launch the boat ... Staff Member

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    Suddenly the feud with a Gold Star widow starts to make this really weird sense. People have been trying to figure out what about this or that set Trump off, but a guilty plea connected to his campaign would probably do it. The Niger patrol departed on 3 October, got hit on 4 October; Africom released a statement on 5 October, beginning a curious, simmering spectacle that wouldn't flash for a week, as the president, himself, said nothing.

    Honestly, the period between then and Trump's panicked "DO SOMETHING!" tweet yesterday will be among the most fascinating chapters of the Trump presidency.
     
  17. Bells Staff Member

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  18. Tiassa Let us not launch the boat ... Staff Member

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    #corruption | #WhatTheyVotedFor

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    Not quite. One can conspire against the United States, but while Russia is considered an adversary it is a bit harder to describe them as an enemy proper. This is the same charge they would file if the campaign was getting funky with Turkey or Azerbaijan instead of Russia.

    • • •​

    Because Manafort is a headliner. I know it's a weak mataphor, but that really does happen, sometimes. You pick up a ticket to go see a band you know, has been around for years, and their upstart opening act is just a jawdropper. I don't know what the drink-drive stat is in Australia, but we teach around here that by the time we arrrest a DUI, the suspect has probably driven intoxicated at least eighty to a hundred times. It's a rough statistic pulled from hazy self-reporting according to people who are already in legal jeopardy. At any rate, the average American news consumer has had plenty of opportunity to learn Papadopolous' name, and they probably should have since one of our NFL stars once played a television father by that name (Alex Karras, "George Popadopolis", Webster↱, 1983-89). True, that shouldn't make any real difference, but we're Americans.

    In Friday's mad-rush commentary, we heard a lot of comparative speculation while reporters, presenters, and pundits spewed and scrambled after some manner of narrative framework. One question, for instance, had to do with why bring indictments now instead of later; the subsequent logic was a scattershot because all we could do was enumerate possibilities. Among those was the pretty basic idea of leverage; the harder one nobody was describing well was the idea of going after a low-level staffer on a tech-related E&O because it would allow Mueller to open up some aspect like a thoracic spreader. That's not what we got. We got a headliner, a supporting act, and a gem.

    It will be in the morning-after reviews that people start buzzing about the undercard. At least, we hope. Also, check back in some hours when Hayes, Maddow, and O'Donnell are slated for broadcast. The prime-time analyses ought to be illuminating in some way, though there is a possibility that everyone will still be so confused that Maddow burns half the show with Beschloss and Reid.

    Matthew Rozsa↱ of Salon, however, notes the same point you do:

    While it's highly unlikely that Trump was unaware of Manafort's connections to Russia and Ukraine before hiring him—and if he was, that fact alone would raise serious questions about his competence—he is certainly not in a position to state definitively that the Mueller probe's recent arrests have nothing to do with his campaign. Manafort's legal predicament ties into his days working for a pro-Russia political party in Ukraine, which may indirectly relate to Trump's campaign. There's a bigger problem, though: Charges against former Trump foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos are directly related to Papadopoulos allegedly trying to set up a meeting with Russian officials.

    Meanwhile, we might consider one of those unwritten rules advising against hiring a foreign polcy consultant barely thirty years old, with no real and direct experience, who lists "Model United Nations" as his credential:

    In March 2016, Donald Trump sat down with the editorial board of the Washington Post, and was asked about the team of foreign policy advisers his campaign had assembled. The then-candidate volunteered a handful of names, including Carter Page, who's now a key figure in the Russia scandal, and whom Trump later claimed not to know.

    But after mentioning Page, Trump quickly added to his list of advisers, "George Papadopoulos, he's an energy and oil consultant, excellent guy."

    Even at the time, this seemed odd. Papadopoulos had only graduated from college seven years earlier, and he listed participation with the "Model United Nations" as one of his credentials. And yet, in March 2016, the then-frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination identified Papadopoulos as one of only a handful of people advising him on foreign policy.


    (Benen↱)

    I can only wonder what the indictment against Carter↱ Page↱ is going to look like.
    ____________________

    Notes:

    Benen, Steve. "Former Trump adviser pleads guilty to lying to Mueller's team". msnbc. 30 October 2017. msnbc.com. 30 October 2017. http://on.msnbc.com/2iKU5SC

    Rozsa, Matthew. "Trump's spin on Manafort indictment just raises more questions". Salon. 30 October 2017. Salon.com. 30 October 2017. http://bit.ly/2ifNITs
     
  19. parmalee peripatetic artisan Valued Senior Member

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    So it's Man' and George, not Ma'am and George?

    Sorry, I just couldn't resist that.
     
  20. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    Ah, okay. So I'm assuming then that treason, in legal terms, is conspiring specifically with an enemy proper against your own country? That I didn't appreciate. Thanks.
     
  21. parmalee peripatetic artisan Valued Senior Member

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    Actual convictions for treason proper are quite a rarity--I think there've only been a handful in the past two hundred years--but popular usage of the term would have you thinking otherwise.
     
  22. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    so
    Manafort pled "not guilty" to all 12 counts.
    I suspect that he will be a tougher nut to crack than was Papadopoulos,
     
  23. arfa brane call me arf Valued Senior Member

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    How relevant is any of this though? I mean, the USA is it seems trying hard to make itself less relevant these days.

    The significance of Donald Trump being handed the reins of power by an established party hasn't been lost on people with any political sense. To me at least it was like, ok, well that's that I suppose. So much for the great US of A, I guess it's going to all go downhill or has been going downhill for a while, this being just the next round in the big fight against--some thing or other.

    How sad that the ugly face of America seems to be the true face of America. Sure, a lot of Americans aren't happy, the FBI isn't happy, maybe the Pentagon isn't happy either, but what really are all those unhappy people doing? A whole lot of oxy? Probably.

    I think although there is much unhappiness with the current political situation, most Americans don't really care all that much. If they did care more than they seem to, if they lobbied more, protested on the streets more, or just, you know, got more pissed off about it and bloodywell did something, would the situation change?

    Bear in mind, the situation is what it is because a lot of pissed off white folks said they don't care what happens, but they want change, they want a president who can take a wrecking ball to all those vaunted institutions of democracy, they seem to be one group of unhappy Americans who just don't care anymore. About democracy, that is.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2017

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