The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

BTW, the Dow has lost slightly more than 10% in the last five trading days, with no evidence that it has hit bottom, yet.

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

It is not exactly a straight line decline but 2% loss per day fits it well.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

That's not going to save you BillyT. If a recession occurs it will make the dollar worth more, not less.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

Well you are being disingenuous again. Once again for your edification, you wrote, "Perhaps I picked the wrong Halloween for market collapse 8 years ago. It should have been 31October 2015, not 31 October 2014?."

Yes you used the word "perhaps" but not in reference your new prediction. You said perhaps you were wrong. You didn't write perhaps it should have been 31 October 2015. You wrote, "It should have been 31 October 2015." That's very definitive. There was no "perhaps" in that very clear and definitive statement. Now you are busy trying to back peddle. Now it's , maybe 31 October 2016 and it's conditioned with ambiguous "if"s. You are back peddling, because October 31, 2015 is only about 10 weeks away and you are just making this stuff up. You have no logical basis for this prediction or the ones which preceded it.

It doesn't make any difference, any date you choose it will be wrong, because you are just making this stuff up.

Here is my problem with you BillyT you are just one of the many "think-they-know-it-alls" out there who in reality know absolutely nothing and mislead poor working stiffs into loosing their money. There are a ton of them out there. You have referenced many over the years. And yeah, that bothers me. It bothers me a lot. People work hard for what little money they have and they don't need a bunch of charlatans fleecing them by selling them silly investments and "newsletters" or scaring them into doing silly things. And God knows there are too many charlatans out there.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

are you , at least, a series 3?
to predicted trades without responsibility ,at least, takes a series 7.
are you even qualified, or are you an ignoramus that watches cnbc and cnn all day, without even grasp an inkling of what is said as you simply jump on the bandwagon ?

look at this,
this is my PTC blog from a forum i had that failed. this is what real knowlege looks and reacts like.
http://performancetradingconcepts.blogspot.com/

this is my site that failed. there's more predictions of mine on there. all this can be researched and confirmed that the majority of these predictions were correct. also, there's a lot of spam on this site, just click on the first pages of each topic.
http://www.performancetradingconcepts.com/index.php

 

As usual many distortions and mis quotes here.

First definite statements do not end in a questions mark as mine did, before you change it to a period. By converting my question into a statement, you are once again are putting words, a statement, into my mouth, which I did NOT make. It was NOT a "very clear and definite statement" - It was a question. I assume you do know the difference.

Your second stuffing of words into my mouth is the claim I made a "new prediction." and No, I must definitely did NOT say I was wrong. I said, several times in different posts, that I got the timing wrong not the prediction. It has remained unchanged for at least 8 years - I missed the date by nearly a year, at least. My prediction of severe economic troubles, and the rise in the price of gold as a result when confidence in fiat paper fails, continues to be my prediction, UNCHANGED.

I sort of expected to not get the timing right. I violated the fundamental rule for good predictions 8 years ago. It is tell "what will happen" or "when", but not both, as I did.

 

The graph of Dow decline during last five day showing slightly more than a 10% drop (down to 15,666 at CoB today 25Aug15) that was displaying in post 1221, no longer displays, so for the record, here are the daily drops:
-163 last Wednesday
-253
-531
-588
-205 today, Tuesday 25 Aug 15. or 1,740 points down in five consecutive trading days. - Not yet the collapse I expect, but painful to some, especially those nearing retirement (or already retired) with most of their saving in the stock market.

 

All of this will be papered over with QE4-eva soon enough. As for gold, confiscation laws will take care of that quick enough, you know, because we use the roads and 'Terrorists'.

My prediction is a slow and continual decline in the standard of living as "society" normalizes to disintegration. First stop, mom joins the workforce. Second stop, bye bye retirement. Third word...errrr, stop, those with children will start putting them to work to help make rent to their SlumLord. Then it's a simple matter of electing a psychotic clown and starting a few (more) wars.

 

No, unfortunately for you BillyT you haven't been distorted or misquoted by anyone other than you. You were quoted verbatim.

First you claimed the word "perhaps" made your statement not definitive. Now you are trying to use a grammatical mistake. Your words are very definitive.

No this is your customary attack in order to divert attention. No one is stuffing anything in you mouth. Your admission of error wasn't even under discussion. The subject was your new prediction. The fact is you were wrong, because you said the dollar would collapse on October 31, 2015 and that didn't happen. The dollar at that time was and has remained very strong. So you were wrong whether you want to admit it or not. No one said you fully admitted you were wrong. You are creating a straw man. If you read my posts you should know I have reiterated your claim that you were correct, even though your prediction didn't come true. You claim you just got your dates wrong date wrong because you didn't fully understand some things. But you thing you have it right this time, even though you weren't wrong the last time. That's nonsense. And you doubled down, by adding a new date, 31 October 2015 and subsequently maybe 31 October 2016. That surprised me. As I previously pointed out, you are just pulling these dates out of the ether. You have no idea BillyT, you are just making this stuff up.

Actually, your predictions have changed over time. When you first made this prediction, you didn't give it a specific date. It was only about a year and a half or two years ago that you put a date on it your "run of the dollar" and you were very clear you were only predicting a run on the dollar. And now your prediction is changing again. The dates are changing and are in a state of flux. And in you last paragraph you are broadening your prediction to include, "severe economic troubles, and the rise in the price of gold as a result when confidence in fiat paper fails". That's new. But you have always been a gold bug (i.e. gold advocate). That isn't new. And you have always been against "fiat currencies".

Well, if you sort of expected not to get the timing right you shouldn't have been so definitive and predicted a specific date. You shouldn't have said on 31 October 2014 the dollar will collapse. At one point you gave yourself some leeway. But then you tightened it. I was surprised you doubled down with another date, October 31 of this year. As I have told you many times over the years it's foolish to make those kinds of predictions because no one can honestly and make them with any degree of precision. There are too many variables. And in your case, also as pointed out to you repeatedly over the years, the reasons you cite for your predicted demise of the dollar and now a decline in the stock market don't add up. They don't make sense to anyone who has any kind of economic or finance background. Your reasons are nonsensical for all the reasons previously cited and repeated endlessly over the course of 7 or 8 years.

The fundamental rule of good predictions is to be honest and make forecasts based on empirical data. Develop models and test them. It has nothing to do with dates. Economists make predictions all the time with dates. But they are honest about their forecasts and they have evidence, knowledge and reason to support their forecasts. And guess what, sometimes our best economists are wrong, because they make assumptions that later turn out not to be true. Your whole prediction is an assumption based not on empirical evidence and reason but based on fallacious beliefs about gold and fiat money. It isn't based on a knowledge of economics, empirical evidence or logic. You are not an economist. You have no formal training in economics. But hey, you are not going to let that stop you.

Here is the bottom line BillyT, you are just picking this stuff out of the ether.

 

I'll use an analogy to describe how I view BillyT and joepistole's debate.

Imagine a heavy chain smoker.

BillyT predicts that she'll die of lung cancer in 8 years. Suggestion? Stop smoking.
joepistole, having built a livelihood out of Big Tobacco, not only tells the smoker all is fine, but offers her a smoke when she appears to be trying to quit. Hell, he gives a free one, on the house, to her kids too.

Eight years role by, of course, the chain smoker(s) aren't doing so well healthwise, but they aren't dead either. Joe's response to BillyT? In your face with an Ace bitch!

And everyone went to bed knowing all was right in Murika
Land of the Fleeced
Home of the Slave

 

And now +619.

 

Yes a big up day - one or two more, and Dow will get back above 17,000.

Market strung 6 big down days in a row - do you think it can get two more up days this week to rise above 17,000, again?

 

I think it will probably be more like two or three weeks. I'd expect a smaller day tomorrow, with a slow rise after that.

 

Thanks for giving your POV. I will not guess about next week, but bet this Friday is a "down day." (I am assuming that the PTB at Jackson Hole, don't come out with a clear promises that interest rates will not rise in September.)

 

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

 

LOL

 

explain what quantitative easing is. and how it's implemented and it's expected impact.
i'm also looking for your understanding, not some link plagiarism.

 

you'll be waiting a long time. micheal's understanding of economics leaves much to be desired. he once claimed if wwe would have followed a libertarian path that the median income would be around 350K. i felt it was implied that prices would have still been around what they are today.

 

It's inflation.
The central bank creates money out of nothing, uses this new money to purchase government securities (e.g.: T-bonds) which increases the bank's monetary reserves. It's counterfeiting.

I'm 100% positive that if in the 1960s you were told that someday in the future supercomputers thousands of times more powerful than the ones that put man on the moon, would fit in your pocket, and be so cheap people will just toss them into the trash to buy a new model with little added benefits - you'd say the exact same thing. People like you are a broken record echoing across history. You clamor for your kings, your emperors, your popes - whoever promises you to take from one person and give to you.

I'm sure to a Communist North Korea, the idea of making more than $50,000 a year in a somewhat more 'free' society must similarly appear a "Free-Market Capitalistic Pig" lie.

Don't worry, you little Statists are in full control. 99.999% of people in society think exactly like you do, they ALSO love Big Government, and they're more than happy to use it to redistribute from you to them - primarily by selling T-Bonds on your future labor, via QE for example. And, if you are given permission by the State to work, you WILL be paying on those bonds. If you're not given permission - you'll still pay, through inflation. One way or another, you'll both pay and praise the State.

The USA was founded on LIMITED government, that was a fluke. It's only a matter of time before we return to the historical trend-line.

 

Soon US will be back as a big international buyer of oil. Our "good friends" the Saudis, plan to bankrupt the US shale industry.

 

It's inflation...? Where is this inflation then? Quantitative Easing isn't inflation. If it were we by rights should have a lot of it. Instead, we have NO inflation. It was just a week or so ago that I presented you with the inflation data. Is your memory that bad or are you just doing the demagogue thingy again or is it some combination thereof?

The central bank manages he money supply. It does create money. It also destroys money. It isn't a one way street - another one of "dem" damn details. One more point, the Federal Reserve can and has purchased things other than US government debt.

And I'm 100% sure you don't know anything about the material you post or if you do, you are being extraordinarily dishonest. By the way, as has been pointed out to many times over the years, the US government as it now exists was founded to create a stronger central government. Because the loose central government failed - one of "dem" damn details again.