The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Brian Foley, Nov 28, 2010.

  1. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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  3. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    Here's some (unintentional) satire:

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    Now Larry Summer's says we need a Bigger Bubble - which brings us right back around to The Onion.
     
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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 22, 2013
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  7. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Fed's plans:
    * As I predicted at least 6 years ago.
    ** Because so many are getting discouraged and ceasing to look more for a job (see rapidly falling labor force participation graph of prior post) the Fed is in danger that its criteria for ending QEs will be met before it is safe (not very destructive to the economy) to begin the tapering. One solution to that is for example lower the 6.5% goal post to say 5.0%. Another is to offset the QEs ending with something that effectively also prints new money etc. but has a different name. - Called above "alternative actions."
    Perhaps Fed should hold a name contest with $1000 prize for the winner? I don't think Fed is happy that many of us are calling QE3: "QEinfinity." If they do my entry is "TARP2."
     
  8. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    From Bloomberg:

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  9. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Now let's compare apples to apples.

    Post a chart showing the 2013 US GDP growth estimate to the 2013 S+P 500 estimate. Or, alternatively, post a chart showing the actual 2013 GDP vs the actual 2013 S+P 500. Of course you'd have to start your Y axis at zero; anything else would be misleading and intellectually dishonest, and I know you'd never stoop to such things.
     
  10. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    LOL, that is good. If it is from Bloomberg as you say, then why is your source not Bloomberg? Instead chart is on a whacko nut job conspiracy web site. Actually what you posted is a modification of a chart tweeted by a Bloomberg employee. Below is the actual chart, notice there are some significant differences. And just what malevolence do you find in the chart exactly?

    https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/364429430841569281/photo/1/large

    The estimates have consistently under estimated actual real GDP growth.

    http://www.bea.gov/
     
  11. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Probably for same reason, despite being asked more than dozen times in different posts, for the link to Bloomberg, you could never produce one for this "quote of Bloomberg"you made:
    I.e. both you and he just pulled it out of your dark and smelly place where the sun "don't shine."
     
  12. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    LOL, a little desperate these days are you? How about surprising me one day and make some sense.
     
  13. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    This has been discussed with you and proven many times. But both you and Michael have a knack for ignoring facts. Workforce participation rates are changing because the workforce is changing. The workforce is aging and as a result a lot of people are pulling out of the workforce. It has nothing to do with the Fed.

    Only partisans are calling it QE infinity. You won’t find savvy investors who are that stupid. Every day the market fears the ending of QE not for the nefarious reasons you are pushing but because investors are not confident the Fed will get the timing right. And they have good reason for that fear. Historically the Fed has tended to error on the conservative side and end QE early which could cause stagnation or another recession.

    Unfortunately for you the BLS does track discouraged workers. They are not growing in number as you like to claim.

    “Among the marginally attached, there were 815,000 discouraged workers
    in October, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are
    not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not
    currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available
    for them.” BLS, November 2013

    And do you really think Wall Street wouldn’t notice your “name change” notion? Further there is no reason for the Fed to change its stated unemployment targets. The unpleasant fact for you is the Fed is doing swimmingly well. And it the numbers show it. You have been sounding the doom and gloom message for years now, you have consistently used conspiracy ads and websites upon which to base your illogical and counterfactual notions. And this year you have committed to predicting a collapse of the dollar, a monetary and economic Armageddon resulting from the actions taken by the Fed. In other words, you are going to have a lot of egg on your face come October of next year when that event fails to materialize. The only hope you have of an economic Armageddon next year is if Republicans in the House intentionally run the nation into a default.
     
  14. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    I know as asked you more than a dozen times for link to Bloomberg you claimed to be quoting. Anyone can look at the next 20 of so posts to see you duck and weave, attack me and my sources, but NEVER give the link.
     
  15. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    LOL, do you really want to go there? Apparently you need a memory refresher Billy T. You claimed that the Federal Reserve told Germany it would have to wait 7 years in order to get its gold back from the Federal Reserve and you went on to speculate that The Federal Reserve didn't have the gold because it lent it out to unspecified borrowers and that was the reason for the Fed's delay in returning Germany's gold. And you went on to write that the Fed could just put the gold on an airplane and return all 300 tons of gold within weeks were it not for some nefarious reasons like not having the gold. You further stated that the Federal Reserve had not audited its gold reserve for decades which was false. The Fed completed a gold audit as recently as last year. I pointed out your errors of fact and gave you links and materials to prove you were wrong on all accounts. And I further pointed out your total reliance on known specious conspiracy web sites.

    I repeatedly challenged you to produce even one credible source which backed up your claim that the Federal Reserve told Germany it would have to wait 7 years in order to get its gold back as you claimed. You have yet to produce that proof. I on the other hand produced proof of everything. Your obfuscation and refusal to recognize credible evidence from credible sources does not nullify reality. You were challenged a dozen times to provide credible evidence to support your claim the US told Germany it couldn't have it's gold back immediately and must wait 7 years in order to get its gold and as of today you have failed to produce that credible evidence. Because it exists only in your mind and those of your fellow conspiracists. And since then you have nothing but continue to obfuscate. You and Michael have a lot in common, you ignore facts and evidence you find displeasing.
     
  16. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    QE Tiger by the tail:
    * Especially with the just announced (by Paul Ryan & Patty Murray) new version of "kick the can down the road" that hopes to cause borrowing to increase by "ONLY" 1.01 TRILLION dollars this just starting fiscal year. Not fooling all with hints of significant tapper this December meeting. Perhaps a small one needed to kill the growing realization of the problem - reflected by three down days on Wall street and three up days for gold.

    BTW 1: on Joe's false statement at start of post 652:I did not claim it would take 7 years to give Germany back it gold. I QUOTED two different sources (giving their links of course) stating that. Joe rarely can give sources for his "quotes'" and still refuses to give any link to his quote of Bloomberg that he claims contradicts my two sources. I guess Joe thinks LOL and attack other's sources servers as well. I added my comments to effect that if US actually had the unencumbered gold to give back, they could do that in a few months with large US Air Force cargo planes (they can lift several heavy tanks)

    BTW 2: As normally Joe's practice is to attack my sources, I note the Wall Street Journal, has operational control over Market Watch and it's Stock Market Quotes, Business News and Financial News from the leading provider: MarketWatch.com, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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    #3 is a very light load: president's limousine and some secret service cars.
    #2 is the 82nd Airborne paratroopers seated with their gear for a drop.
    #1 Is transport of heavy howlers to Afghanistan. (The length of gun barrel limits them to 2 per trip, not their weight, which is more than heavy tank. I can't find photo of three tanks inside.)
    Next post, 653, has photo of just a routine training mission over the Appalachian mountains at low level. Less than half these planes on that training missions could deliver ALL the German gold to Frankfurt less than 12 hours! Proof in next post. CONTRAST MY SOILD PROOF WITH JOE's TOTAL ABSENCE OF ANY!
    US Air force only has 223 of the C-17 but if can't spare a few for hauling German Gold, they have been sold in large volumes to more than dozen friendly nations.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 12, 2013
  17. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    3852 miles NYC to Frankfurt, Germany.
    US has 223 C-17s and these 12 friendly nations have more than 100.
    The C-17 makes the NYC to Frankfurt trip in less than 7 hours, including take-off and landing time. They can carry more than 160,000 pounds for these short trips, but lets say they only take 80 tons per trip.
    300 tons / 80 tons per trip is less than four trips. One third of the C-17s seen below on training mission could return ALL of Germany's gold in 12 hours. I.e.
    There is some other reason why German can't get it gold back NOW. . . Can you guess what it is?

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    My guess: (and that of many others) is US either does not have their gold** (why no audit allowed) or has lent the gold out long term for income.

    ** Germany has twice sent members of their audit committee to gold vault in NYC. First time not even taken to vault. Second time allowed to look thru door, not allowed touch an ounce!

    SUMMARY:
    LIKE USUSAL , JOE POSTS HIS BULL SHIT AND CLAIMS TO BE QUOTING RELIABLE SOURCE, LIKE BLOOMBERG, but even after ~15 requests for link to it, all you get is: "LOL"
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 12, 2013
  18. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    My challenge remains unanswered Billy T. Where is your credible evidence to support your claim that The Federal Reserve told Germany it would have to wait 7 years to get its gold back?
     
  19. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    That 2nd graph deficit gap adds to the growing debt and becomes ever harder to carry, especially as interest rates return to even near historical averages.

    PS to Joe: I gave two DIFFERENT links that said US would require 7 years to give Germany all its gold back. It is not my fault that you don't want to consider them "creditable." At least I do give links for my quotes. You just claimed to be quoting Bloomberg saying it goes back in 3 years, but NEVER give the link, even after about 15 requests for it.
    SUMMARY: You can add that to your long list of fabricated lies that a dozen relies of your "LOL" or duck and weave attacks on me will not wash out - only the link will.
     
  20. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    That is hogwash Billy T. Where is the evidence to support your claim the Federal Reserve told Germany it couldn't have its gold back right away and would need to wait 7 years and suggesting that the Fed didn't have the gold?

    Additionally you are abusing your power as a moderator. You are revising history, posts, lying and you have taken to limiting my ability to post in this thread.
     
  21. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    First, for 2nd or 3d time: Not my claim - just my quote from two different sources, but there is supporting indications, two of which I soon mention and then give you a question in bold type.
    I.e. I gave two different links and quoted from them telling the seven years needed for return of all Germny's gold.
    Also contrary to your claim that it would take long time to return 300 tones, I gave in last few posts complete proof that four (or 6 each with 50 tons and more fuel. then refueling by KC 135 might not even be required, but it is routine. See photo below.) C-17s could deliver it to Frankfurt* in less than 12 hours. Fact it has been nearly a year since Germany asked for it gold back plus the fact that twice Germany audit committee representatives were not even allowed to touch their gold, certainly lends strength to the idea that US does not have unencumbered gold to give back now. Why do you think it has not all been returned months ago?
    * See post 653 & 654 for detail, including photos, one showing 13 of the 223 C-17s the US owns in training mission flight.

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    You need to learn that personal attacks and "LOL" are not rebuttals to well documented facts (like about the C-17's lift capacity, speed and range with 80 tones of cargo) and referenced information quoted from other sourceS.
    Another set of lies! I have power to block post by new (less than 20 post made) members. Please PM James R and ask him to look at the past archives for any evidence that you have had any post blocked by me or stop inventing more lies.
    * If I even have that power, which I don't, I would not know how to use it.

    I'm not saying following quote is true / correct, but it does help explain why the price of "paper gold" has fallen despite physical gold demand and buying being greater than total global production (excluding China who never lets any of its production leave China but is buying ~1200 ton in the western markets in 2013):
    I know you will just, as you normally do, attack the credibility of the source rather than discuss the logic or supporting evidence. - Especially the strange fact that the law of supply demand normally causes prices to rise rather than fall when demand exceeds production. Also, Goldman Sucks has been convicted of going short for it own account when telling others to buy and other efforts at market manipulation are at least widely suspected by these banks with large gold account holdings, both long and short.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 16, 2013
  22. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    This IS the recovery.
    We're living it.
    So, if you think life is pretty good - then that's great. It's only going down from here.

    I would guess the Federal Reserve will begin another attempt at a tapper in 2014 - and this 'recovery' will be the New Normal. Everyone will adjust to it as that's what people do, normalize.

    I predict in our lifetimes we'll see another normalization to middle class parents putting their children into part-time work to help with the rent and bills. Then, children working will be seen as 'good for society' and therefor 'good for kids. Onwards we'll 'progress' until we've 'progressed' right back into a third world shit-hole most inner cities presently are (See: Detroit).
     
  23. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    I'd give a modest $5billion reduction this week a 50/50 chance. - Fed just wanting to show it can reduce the buying with thin-air money below the 1 trillion per year rate. I.e. Fed keeps firm hold on the tiger's tail, with a move of slight psychological, no fiscal, significance.
     

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