Up until recently the prospect of a Trump presidency seemed remote. But since the Mercer intervention and the acquisition of Kellyanne Conway, things have changed. Trump is doing much better in the polls. What was the unthinkable has now become the thinkable. So what would a Trump presidency look like? If you believe the things Trump says, it wouldn't be good. The US would quickly move into multiple trade wars with our biggest trading partners. Trump's stated positions on debt, would put the US into a debt default. For a guy who was supposed to have graduated from one of the nation's finest business schools, the guy is really dumb and financially illiterate. I have to wonder if he didn't pay someone to take his classes for him. For him to suggest that he should treat US government debt as commercial debt as he has done, it's inexcusable. He should know better, but apparently he doesn't. Most economists, including Trump's alma mater think a Trump presidency would cost the US economy a trillion dollars. Trump, especially if he causes a debt default, could cost much, much, more than that. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-economy-idUSKCN11J25M Most business folks don't think Trump will do what he claims he would do, that it is all for votes. That may be true. But then again, it might not be. It kind of reminds me of what folks thought about Hitler. Most business folk believe that even if The Donald is serious and does attempt to implement his policies, he has to go through Congress and Congress will likely be deadlocked. There are two problems with that. One, over the course of the last few years, when has Congress acted responsibly? They have threatened a debt default on multiple occasions. Relying upon Congress to block a crazy Trump may be just hopeful wishing. Democrats in the Senate through the filibuster might be able to block Trump and the Republican agenda. But that's a big "might". And Trump doesn't need Congress to slap on tariffs. He would need Congress in order to maintain the tariffs. What does seem certain is a Trump presidency would mean increased uncertainty, and increased uncertainty is not something that will be well accepted by the markets. Markets eschew risk, and The Donald is risk incarnate as reflected through his many failed business ventures and readily apparent lack of basic financial and economic knowledge. The danger is the increased uncertainty a Trump administration would bring could cause a decrease in US consumer spending, and that would hurt the US economy. His protectionist trade policies would put American workers out of work and that would hurt the American consumer. To be brief, Trump is a clear and present risk to the US economy. Now, I'm not a gold bug. I haven't recommended gold for some time. But should, God forbid, Trump should become POTUS, I think it would be wise to buy gold. Gold does well in uncertain times, and a Trump administration would be that in spades. I don't imagine Kellyanne Conway would be his constant minder should be become POTUS. On the good side, a Trump administration would ruin the Republican brand, but it would come at the expense of the nation. A Trump administration could very well irreparably destroy the US and perhaps the world.