The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

That's prediction #3 down the tubes:
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The Dow raced 619 points higher on Wednesday, its most emphatic point gain since the 2008 financial crisis.
The huge rally represents a rebound following six days of dramatic selling that was driven by serious concerns about how China's slowing economy will impact the rest of the world.


The S&P 500 soared 3.9% on Wednesday, its biggest one-day percentage gain since 2011. The Nasdaq surged 4.2% higher. The Dow's point gain was the third largest in its history.
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Gee billvon.

I was really enjoying the brief rational conversation we just had a couple of posts back. Now you are back to your old Harold Camping crap. Oh well. Let's see how your forecast performs vs. the Etp model as the situation unfolds. Pay back time, bro. The world may be ending and all, but I am still going to enjoy making relentless fun of you as it happens. I think it was Herbert Hoover who said, "Prosperity is just around the corner".

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---EDIT---

Ha ha! Dude, that's a one day bounce. Grow up. You are going to make this too easy.

And the natural evolution of the Chinese economy is thermodynamic. Duh.

How would any halfway decent newspaper article announce the end of the world? What would the headline say?



---Futilitist

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Have you tried to get your stuff published somewhere and if not, why not?

 

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Are you kidding? I can't even get it published here!



---Futilitist

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I agree that it is somewhat unfair to compare you to him. He had enough integrity to admit when his predictions failed to come to pass.

Unfortunately, it seems to be all you are good at.

 

Is it possible because what you are on about is really weird?

 

Yes. Like you, most people don't know how to react to something like this. They say the truth is often stranger than fiction. The truth can often hurt.

You just called me Harold Camping yet again and now you're suggesting that I am bullying you! Ha ha!!!

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---Futilitist

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hmmm

I could take some offense to those words, but you are way too weird.

 

I imagine it does. After seeing your imaginary apocalypse ruined three times now by the truth, I can understand your aversion to it.

 

what a joke this is. and your whole post.

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shrugs.
you do not know the reality, do not continue to fool yourself as you have already.

 

are you mentally disabled ?
I'm sincerely asking, seriously, are you ?

edit-
i understand that i say this all the time, but this is one of those times where i seriously want to know and truly believe you have a developmental disability.

 

---World Wide Web Update---

Rampant Apocalypse News Censorship

This was the last taunting post that billvon made to me at thescienceforum.org:

http://thescienceforum.org/topic1090-70.html#p19367

He posted this after I was banned.

I obviously couldn't reply to him. But, luckily, I remembered that during one of my many bans from that stupid site, I had created an alternate persona that I had not yet used up. So I posted my Etp confirmation (basically the OP of this very thread) as a direct answer to his tongue in cheek quest for corrections/updates.

The post stayed up for a couple days before the ever vigilant iNow realized that someone had actually left a new post on the extremely unpopular site.

The post can now be found in the special "Trash: Repository for Deleted Posts w/Futilitist" at:
http://thescienceforum.org/topic950-80.html#p20203

Along with this terse explanation for the post's trashing:

iNow is a real stickler for the rules. A bit of an authoritarian, IMHO. Unfortunately, this sort of petty suppression of the truth is quite common across the web, especially on so-called science forums.

So, anyway, this is more evidence that people don't respond well to bad news. The real problem is Groupthink.

---We now return to your regularly scheduled thread already in progess---

Imagine what it will be like when all your forecasts and your entire world view are completely discredited forever. Who knew apocalypse could be so much fun?!

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---Futilitist

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Let me reproduce that post for you in full:

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I believe his initial estimate (in another forum) was that the riots would start last summer before rising oil prices plunged the world into a profound depression. $16 gas by 2015 and $32/gallon gas by 2016, followed by extinction of 90% of the human race. From his posts -

"The real apocalypse will be a complete and total social collapse, the collapse of industrial civilization, along with a rapid 90% mass die off of the species."
"When we come off of the bumpy plateau of world oil production between now and 2015, we will experience a rapid and severe die off (90+%)."
"There is no solution. Science will not save us. The laws of physics trump political will. Run for the hills."

I am sure he will provide corrections/updates to the above.
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It is ironic indeed that a post that consists largely of your own quotes you consider "taunting."

When your own words, repeated back to you, are considered "taunting" - you have a problem with integrity.

 

Is it your claim then that the drop in oil prices last year was caused by a massive recession and extreme unemployment?

 

I am going to remind you that you said that. A lot.

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No Russ, obviously not. Why do you always try to put words in my mouth?

The oil price fell when the economic value of a barrel of oil had fallen well below the actual price, due to the entropy of the oil production system. You really don't understand the Etp model, do you?



---Futilitist

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The apocalypse will never happen...

The Prophet, Homer, will see a space elevator built so we may ferment the future of civilization, in God's name.

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I didn't. You explained the mechanism right there -- it is pretty straightforward....and in that case it is accurate, having had some impact in the cause of the last recession.

By what mechanism, specifically, did that happen? IE, a barrel of oil, sitting in the ground in an already tapped well and recoverable at 80 a barrel suddenly became cheaper to pump out of the ground? And even if it had, why would someone sell oil at 50 a barrel if people were just a few months ago willing to pay 80?

Actually, despite the fact that I haven't been provided the details of the model and therefore can't be expected to understand it very well*, I'm reasonably certain I understand it better than you. For example, what you just said is gibberish because EROEI does not have units of money, it has units of energy. But by all means, please do state the current EROEI in units of dollars.

So, yes, while I asked you to be specific about the mechanism, I know you can't because you're just handwaving about concepts you don't understand.

*Hey futilitist, what is 1+the number of fingers I'm holding up? Or can't you do basic arithmetic?

 

Seven pages of this thread is eight more than I can be bothered to read.

But concerning fossil fuels... they're not a renewable resource, so what's going to happen when they all run out?

 

They are already running out -- they are always running out. What is happening is that people are increasing efficiency and switching to other energy sources.

 

They will never all run out - but they will get scarce enough (and expensive enough) that alternatives will become cheaper, and so we will gradually switch to them.