Putin's invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter Saint
- Start date
He didn't.
He said that while Nato was fully united as to what their reaction would be to a full-blown invasion, if Russia just went for a "minor incursion" then that would probably prompt discussion within Nato as to what the reaction should be. I.e. currently no unity as to what response would be to such a "minor incursion".
That's very different from saying that an "incursion is ok".
He said that while Nato was fully united as to what their reaction would be to a full-blown invasion, if Russia just went for a "minor incursion" then that would probably prompt discussion within Nato as to what the reaction should be. I.e. currently no unity as to what response would be to such a "minor incursion".
That's very different from saying that an "incursion is ok".
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Yes. Kiev was the capital of Kievan Rus', before Russia itself existed.
Putin has been probing for a while to gauge what the reaction of the West would be to a further land grab. The gas shortages in the Autumn were part of it (he must have been gratified to see the level of political turmoil that has produced), as is the troop build up now. He has focused on things that might divide the West by giving individual countries domestic problems, and will be taking careful note of any disagreements about provision of military support, levels of sanctions to be applied in the event of an invasion (exclusion from Swift? A stop on Nordstream 2?) etc. Then he can calculate what he can afford to lose.
My suspicion is he will try to grab the Donbas region, calculating that the West will not go to war over that and it will be impossible for Ukraine to defend, given the high proportion of ethnic Russians/Russophiles there. Trying to move further west would be harder, as the area would be immense, the population deeply hostile and the West's level of interest and concern far higher.
My fear is that Biden may have accidentally telegraphed that an outcome of this kind would be reluctantly accepted, as the annexation of Crimea was.
Once Putin has the Donbas, there could be a further move, later on, if an opportunity presents itself, e.g. China invading Taiwan.
I am sure both Putin and Xi see the USA as strongly in decline, having lost faith in its own democracy and seen the collapse of its sense of shared values. With a weak USA, NATO is heavily constrained in what it can do. And of course they can see the EU is not a military power, even less so now that UK has broken away from it. So they will take their chance, I think.
I'm not sure what will happen in thinking of, Taiwan.
This is dated, Mar 2021:
:EDIT:
This is, Sep 2021:
I've heard that if China attacks they will use "Shock and Awe" but I don't see a military build up nor an inclination to confront the US Navy.
I also like an international perspective and, Gravitas, is of course, India.
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sculptor
Valued Senior Member
yes
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
In the eastern Donbas region, yes. In the rest of Ukraine, no.
This is the same game Hitler played with Czechoslovakia. Look up Sudetenland.
And the same game the USA played with Tejas, now Texas.
RainbowSingularity
Valued Senior Member
because he wants to secure that region to ensure safety & control
with tides of illegal migrants & foreign militia walking through borders spreading crime & covid & jihadism
he needs to be strong
chrimea is a globally strategic military port which secures the wider area & allows military access to a vast area.
it is also inside urbanized Russians so the family of the service personal can live close by & watch their children grow up
think of all the jihadists coming through by the thousands inside illegal migrants fro the middle east & africa.
chrimea base is the # christian base to oppose them.
its critical that it is keep well serviced & ready to react to any potential gatherings & training camps.
it will also be keep open communication with Turkey asking turkey to keep its promises.
Turkey controls a lot of regional shipping
so that must be secured and over seen for global stability.
it is right beside Georgia & azerbijan which is jihadist hot spot training camp flare-up points
jihadists out of syria & other countrys have been feeding into that area de stabilizing it
there is a lot going on
remember usa pulled out of turkey so now its all left up to Russia to protect the christian world from jihadist invasion
also
a HUGE amount of OIL & Gas goes through that region which Europe & England Rely on
supplied by Russia
it is CRITICAL that those oil & gas lines remain secure at all costs
1 of those gas lines being blown up could result in thousands of deaths through Europe & England & cost billions
imagine
a gas line being blown up & it damageda pumping station(as well requiring re-fit of critical systems)
say a combined insurgent bomb attack
pipe bombed with a truck bomb
pumping station hostage then suicide truck bomb inside
maybe a local electricity station also having BIG RIG TRUCK DRIVEN RIGHT THROUGH IF & SET ON FIRE WITH BURNABLE COMPOUNDS WOOD TAR OIL DEISEL
UK might have enough gas to last 24 hours
but its freezing cold wealth & now 10 million people are stuck snowed in with no heating
how many thousands will freeze to death in the next & days ?
many !
SO YOU CAN FIX THE GAS LINE PIPE
FIX THE GAS LINE PUMPING STATION IN A WEEK
BUT YOU CANT GET POWER TO IT BECAUSE THE LOCAL ELECTRICITY PLANT IS HALF MELTED TOGETHER & WOULD TAKE A MONTH TO REPAIR AT BEST
meanwhile 10 million british people including sick & elderly have no heating & its snow outside
big body count
billions of losses & damage
it would probably effect the british economy & damage Russians economy reliability to its customers
a Russian special forces team combined with German & brittish special forces would be the only best possible solution to take back control
specially considering all the borders they would be operating over & inside.
im sure the french would help.
what is the big thing stopping that from happening right now ?
russian special forces sitting in chrimea
because the jihadists know the russians dont fuck around
they will do what ever needs to be done
p.s
im unemployed looking for a job
still trying to fix my mental breakdown trying to stasbalise my self on meds
still quiet bumpy
some kinda weird brain injury from stress
on top of OCD
& a few other issues like lots of allergy's
my anti psyche meds suddenly stopped working for about 5 minutes as i was driving just an hour ago
WTF! was that about
sheesh
imagine having imaginary friends in your head talking at you almost constantly
happy sad what ever
just non stop talking so you never get a moment to your own thoughts
thats what i have
meds are for trying to turn the voices off so i can sleep & relax.
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It has nothing to with terrorism and everything to do with Putin hates that the user broke up
RainbowSingularity
Valued Senior Member
thousands of Islamic military age males in walking caravans ignoring laws & borders looking to loot anything they can from who they deemed infidels & spoilt
by way of turkey & surrounding countrys
this is what is currently happening around the north side of the mediterranean
as you can clearly see by the red arrows of where the illegal fence jumpers are moving through & to
the pink circle with cross is Crimea
you can see it is a critical military regional location to hold.
Attachments
All I’m seeing is bigotry on your part
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Mental illness, surely?
Yazata
Valued Senior Member
Russia has already made clear what their position is. They will not tolerate Ukraine becoming a hostile military power on their border or hosting a military alliance that Moscow perceives (probably rightly) as an anti-Russian alliance. If Ukraine moves any further in that direction, then Russia will take military action.
From their perspective, this is their Cuban Missile Crisis.
The best way to look at this is in terms of a cost-benefit analysis from the Russian perspective.
They see Ukraine becoming a hostile military power on their border as an intolerable geopolitical cost. Ukraine's Finlandization is probably the best that they can hope for and is their desired result. If massing troops on Ukraine's border deters Ukraine from moving towards hostile military alliances, then Russia faces zero direct military cost and achieves their goal. From the Russian perspective that's the best result and no doubt represents Putin's desired outcome. So Russia isn't going to invade unless they are triggered by what they perceive as threatening provocations. That's why I say that we hold the on-off switch controlling what Russia will do.
Avoiding conflict requires the US and its allies backing off and making it clear to Russia privately that they won't be expanding into Ukraine or placing offensive weapons there.
If Ukraine does continue moving militarily in a direction hostile to Russia, Russia will invade.
Then the question is what kind of invasion it will be. There are many military options from minimal to maximal. A minimal option might be to take the parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts that aren't currently hald by separatists. While that option presents low direct military cost, it won't address the intolerable geopolitical problem and will just drive Ukraine deeper into the arms of Russia's perceived enemies, thus making that problem worse. So Russia's response won't be minimal or token.
A maximal response will entail taking enough of Ukraine that the remainder leaping into the arms of a hostile military alliance will no longer be as large a threat. That might involve driving the Guards Tank Army currently near Kursk to the outskirts of Kyiv (but not into the city to avoid street fighting) and then southwest from the city to the Moldovan border. Two additional Guards Armies are located opposite Kharkiv and in Rostov, which could occupy most everything east and south of that Kyiv-Moldova line, encircling the hardest remaining bits. That would leave Ukraine landlocked, extending from Kyiv west to the Polish border and no longer bordering Russia. It would also put the Russians in control of the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast. Direct military cost for this option would be high. I think that Russia could do it but it would take many casualties as it engages in heavy battle with main force Ukrainian units. And it offers less geopolitical benefit than the deterrance strategy does, if it is successful.
So I don't think that Putin wants to invade and hopes that the mere threat will get him what he wants, the Finlandization of Ukraine. He will only invade if he feels that his hand is forced, and if that invasion comes, it will probably be big, the biggest European conflict since World War II.
The question then is what do the US and Europe do? Do they stay out and watch Ukraine go down? (I think that's most likely since neither want to face the cost of war.) Or do they send in their forces and risk nuclear escalation?
Yeah, and Rome was once the capital of Britain and France. Russia needs to be forced to recognize that the owners of Kiev in modern times are the ones currently living there and building all of its infrastructure, unless it wants to relinquish everything it's stolen from other populations since expanding from there.
Unless Ukraine and its Western allies have threatened some sort of military action on Russian soil, the Russians have no right to call it a hostile power nor to call NATO hostile either.
In order to deter future Russian aggression both direct and indirect, the best response would be to sanction all imports of Russian oil and gas along with any actors attempting to help it bypass such sanctions. Shut down Nordstream I and cancel Nordstream II, sanction Germany if it refuses to comply. Tough measures to implement, but no less is required when a country with thousands of nuclear weapons is threatening to start wars and escalate as needed. Anything less from our leaders means they don't have the best interests of their own populations at heart and would rather sell those populations to the highest bidders.
So the Ukrainians and there wishes don’t matter?
exactly. Putin has led russia for the majority of time since the fall of the ussr and that time has been characterized as unrelenting hostility towards any former Soviet republic that didn’t act as a Russian client state.
RainbowSingularity
Valued Senior Member
define the bigotry you read in my post