Its not false it true, china will pay: 1. Chinese companies are not Chinese government or the chinese people, when oil prices go up the companies may profit, but the people or the government will have to pay the bills for the high oil prices, an equivalent example is the US oil companies don't give a fuck about raping Americans with high oil prices. 2. Chinese assets on paper have no stability when they are in foreign countries, those countries can demand to renegotiate those contracts or worse nationalize their oil industry stealing all the investments provided for them. 3. Chinese assets in oil are not paid for up front, that investment paid comes back most often as profit or a cut on the oil sold, not as fixed price oil, or by the nature of individual negotiations and again that money goes to the Chinese oil companies not straight to the Chinese government coffers.
No your suppositions about countries reneging on these fully-paid up-front contracts is very likely false. For example with Brazil's contractual promises to deliver 200,000 Barrels per day for (20 years -by memory) with NO additional payments by China, it would be disastrous for Brazil to tear up that contract as China is Brazil's main trading partner with 100s of contracts both ways that will be honored. International trade is beneficial for both parties and honoring contracts is essential to maintaining it. You have only crazy ideas - your suppositions that it is not necessary to honor international trade contracts. In the case of some of Venezuela's earlier contracts the promised oil is already being delivered without additional charge. If even Hugo, who has ripped up agreements with domestic business interests, does honor his international contracts, then you can be sure normal governments will. They have too much to lose if they do not honor their contracts with other governments or in China's case with SOEs of China. For example: Look at what has happened (and still is) to Argentina for not honoring a few contracts 7 years ago. PS That is what the whole current problem with Euro dropping in value is all about. Some are becoming concerned that Greece MIGHT not honor its contracts with external banks. Investors and countries take defaulting on contracts very seriously and severely punish any who do. Instead of making additional false statements, why not just retract the original false ones?
"...In the last 18 months, roughly the time the {Chinese made} Ecuadorian refinery has been in development, Sinopec: • acquired vast oil sands reserves in Alberta from suddenly debt-ridden ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) for $4.6 billion; • provided a $10 billion line of credit to Brazilian oil major Petrobras (NYSEPlease Register or Log in to view the hidden image!ZE), from which it will receive seven million tons (51 million barrels) of crude this year and over 10 million tons next year; • struck a multi-billion dollar deal with Hugo Chavez in Venezuela to process heavy oil; • became an upstream operating company in its own right by investing the first $500 million of a $2.5 billion to $3 billion commitment to develop the Oglan deposit in Ecuador's Amazon; and • is currently being wooed by Columbia and Brazil for major investments in hydrocarbons. Beijing is sitting on at least $2 trillion in immediately available foreign hard currency reserves - funds that can be spent on any acquisition worldwide … So there is plenty of money to go around as Sinopec sets out to achieve its goals. … Sinopec is no longer only China's largest refiner. It is about to embark upon major projects in unconventional gas sources coal bed methane (CBM) and shale gas, both at home and abroad to complement the huge track of unconventional oil (oil sands) it just obtained in Canada. In addition to deposits, that means the company will need to acquire technology and expertise as well. That access will come through the financing of, acquisitions in, and joint venturing with American and Canadian technical providers and specialty drillers. Turns out, that is precisely the reason the {Cninese} delegation came up to see me. Sinopec wants to move into the Marcellus Shale Play in Pennsylvania and the Power River Basin CBM deposits in northeastern Wyoming. They are less interested in control over volume from these drillings and more interested in gaining access to the technology used. And they will pay top dollar. Sinopec, of course, knows I advise both operators and technical companies in both basins. So stay tuned. Sincerely, Kent Moors. …” Kent is the editor (or main expert) behind: Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!Although China could not buy up UniCal a few years ago, US is more despirate for money now.
Peak Oil is the price rise terminating some uses, not the actual exhaustion of oil supplies. - That will never happen. Here is 10 minute discussion by recognized oil industry investment expert telling specific companies that will benefit and others that will be hurt by the current gulf disaster: http://oilandenergyinvestor.com/researchreports/km_oil_spill_video.html I also note that Peak Oil, as defined at start has moved some years closer with this huge leak of oil into Gulf of Mexico (and probably up the US east coast via the "loop current" if it goes on until August). Perhaps US will even need to let tropical alcohol from sugar cane in without current barriers and unfair subsidies to corn based alcohol. That can lower your food bill and cut your per mile cost of driving in half. (When your taxes for these subsidies and blending bonuses etc. are considered also.)
"... The United States consumes 20 million barrels daily. That's more than the next-five-largest consumers - China, Japan, Russia, Germany, and India - combined. Of those 20 million barrels, 56% are imported. The imports alone represent more oil than Saudi Arabia produces in a day; in fact, it accounts for nearly 20% of the world's entire production. {BT insert: Perhaps US should send some of that money to Brazil for sugar cane alcohol? (Not to those keeping US enemies / terrorists flush with cash.) Then Americans could switch to 100% alcohol fuel and drive for half the cost per mile, if one includes their tax saving possible by termination of the various subsidies to corn (largest of all) and bonuses to producers of corn based alcohol and to the "blenders" of it into gasoline. Also as side benefit their air would be less polluted, their food cheaper and driving would would make a slight negative contribution to global warming as more it is done the more carbon, which was removed from the air by the growing cane, is in the storage tanks etc. More in thread "How Dumb can US voters be." Brazil uses less than 2% of its farm land for growing cane and has five times that acreage as abandoned pasture, which could be growing cane for exports to the US of ALL the alcohol it would need.} Meanwhile, America's own oil is drying up. The Gulf spill - and the accompanying ban on offshore drilling - will only exacerbate the shortfall that's sure to escalate. Even with all the exploration dollars and the most advanced exploration technologies available, the United States' oil-production numbers have been heading south for 40 years. Last November the IEA (International Energy Agency) reported that oil production from operating wells has declined by as much as 9.1% annually. Then in March, the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) indicated that if investment is insufficient, there could be worldwide declines in liquid fuels production starting next year and stretching to 2015. ..." From: http://moneymorning.com/2010/06/18/oil-prices-20/ Billy T comments: I might add that Chinese sales of cars are setting records and China's imports of oil in May 2010 was up 28% YoY. They have lots of cash and are using it to buy (paying in full up front) specified long term (20 years is typical) quanties of oil delivery each month. For example their 10 billion loan to Brazil's PetroBras is to be repaid in oil, not dollars. I.e. it bought 200,000 barrels per day for 20 years. (I'm not completely sure now by memory that it was for 20 years, but as I recall, the price worked out to be about $45/ barrel, which is not as low as it may seem since Brazil has the money now aned delivers the oil on average 10 years from now. - The "time value of money" makes that more like $85/ barrel. - the "spot price" when contract was signed.) Venezuela also recently got 10 Billion loan for long term delivery of oil and has several separate multi-billion dollar deals with China to develop their large (world's largest, I think) shale oil field. In a few years Venezuela will not be sending any oil to the US. {Currently Venezuelan oil is about 10% of US consumption and ~20% of imports {again from memory}
has moved some years closer with this huge leak of oil into Gulf of Mexico Actually 50K barrels a day is a big nothing on the global level. It definiately can not be counted as years bringing PO closer. Maybe by 2 days, counting all oil lost...
"peak oil" is NOT about running out of oil. Not about the volume of oil available as you seem to think. It is about the price of oil - read post 64.
It actually is, but it is irrelevant concerning my post, and my observation still stands as correct... Once you reach a peak you usually have less then before. Peak of your life, etc. But again, it was irrelevant in my context....
Only if you really think there will come a day (two days sooner you said) that the oil is exhausted / no more available. I am trying to tell you that we will NEVER see that day. There will always be oil at some price. Peak production day will come (it may already have) as production from conventional sources is dropping at about 9% per year now but holding steady due to shale etc. non conventional sources. What is significant, the "real peak oil," is when the some significant types of consumption are in decline due to becoming unaffordable - as consumption declines, so does production. That is why there will be a "peak oil production" of all types of oil (conventional + non conventional). For example at a price of $4/gallon gas, or perhaps a little higher, other fuels and / or batteries will displace gasoline and the use of gasoline will be in decline, as will the production of oil. There may still be more oil available in the deep ocean fields etc, possibly more than we have recovered in all oil use history, but it will never be important as too expensive to produce. SUMMARY: The world will NEVER run out of oil. It will run out of economically competitive oil.
Billy, we agree, you don't need to write novels to persuade me. You were kind of talking to yourself in this thread, thus I figured a little interruption would do you good.... By the way people mean different things by PO, I can come up with 5 completely different definitions.. P.S.: Just because 30% of oil will be never brought up due to economical issues that doesn't mean technically we didn't run out of it....
"... One thing is certain: The overall supply from existing fields is declining. A few months ago, the International Energy Agency published a long-awaited report on the actual supply coming in from the major fields presently providing some 72% of all global crude. The conclusion was alarming. Supply figures will have to scale back. There is simply less available oil than the IEA had been estimating for years. Other indicators are just as disturbing. Over the past 10 years, the top 15 producers worldwide have replaced about 70% of the extractable reserves they have taken out of the ground. ..." From: http://www.oilandenergyinvestor.com Billy T comment: On the theory that the low hanging fruit is the first picked, one can also be sure that even the 70% that has been replace is significantly more costly to produce. So two factors are at work to drive prices higher (Demand growing faster than supply and the new supply more costly to produce.) I expect that if EU & US are not back in recession by end of 2010 that oil will cost at least $100/ barrel. If true, that will tend to push both into recession again.
which is why we need to push major world reforms... the world is too dependent on ever weakening currencies, which is another thing that is driving oil prices up...
