Peace in Korea

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Bowser, Mar 9, 2018.

  1. Bowser Life is Fatal. Valued Senior Member

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    Is there hope for the North Korean and American future?

     
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  3. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Depends on what China thinks they need from Korea's collapse.

    Basically: Not as long as people like Tucker Carlson dominate the US media. The best we can get from that is a minor Russia - Trump continuing his role as Reagan, taking credit while fucking it up.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2018
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  5. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    There's always hope. But with our incompetent president determined to meet with the unstable leader of North Korea, those hopes are on the decline.
     
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  7. Bowser Life is Fatal. Valued Senior Member

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    My thought is should we really have any faith that this is anything more than a ploy by N. Korea? Judging from past history, a promise is kept until after they get what they want.
     
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  8. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Ask yourself what China wants.
    China can play Trump if Russia can - with even more economic leverage - and of course they basically own Korea. And that's what this looks like.
    So if we can figure that out, that's the best guess for what happens, unless Trump is removed before Korea collapses.
     
  9. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Nope. Best case is they behave themselves for a short time due to the promise of a visit.
     
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  10. Bowser Life is Fatal. Valued Senior Member

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    That's what I'm thinking.
     
  11. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    It was never more than a ploy by Trump either, so that's always a given.
    That doesn't mean there's no hope - depends on what China wants.
     
  12. Bowser Life is Fatal. Valued Senior Member

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    I think it interesting that a unified Korea might be reason for concern where China and Japan are concerned. An average person would think the possibility a good thing.
     
  13. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Unification under Kim Jong-Un? The average person might have reservations.
    Devil is in the details.
     
  14. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    So . . . never mind. The White House just walked back Trump's announcement of a meeting. An adult must have gotten involved.
     
  15. Jamie Lee Registered Member

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    A unified Korea would be the best for everyone involved, although we'll see how well the negotiations with America go.
     
  16. spidergoat Venued Serial Membership Valued Senior Member

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    The North may give up certain testing programs, but they will resist unification for as long as Kim lives.
     
  17. ElectricFetus Sanity going, going, gone Valued Senior Member

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    North Korea has wanted to meet directly with a US president for decades, for propaganda purposes, to demand a peace treaty and end of sanctions despite being an Orwellian hellscape, chances of north korea actually giving up nuclear weapons are very VERY low as that is the only security they have. What will Trump do after meeting with them, at best they will make some agreement in which north korea keeps nukes but ends some testing (to be broken at a later date) in exchange for a peace treaty. At worse trump will get pissed off and attack. I'm not putting bets on anything, have no clue what is going to happen.
     
  18. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Depends. There are unifications Kim would be happy to enable - and China might favor, as well.
     
  19. birch Valued Senior Member

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    it would be messy if it was a ground war but north korea is no real threat and it's obvious to anyone sane. the problem is if kim jong un is certifiably insane or suicidal. north korea can easily be forced to surrender like japan in the past with a nuke or two. these countries are too small to be any serious threat to the world.

    if bigger giants get involved such as china, then it would be a problem but that would make no sense. these countries do not want a war as they are trying to maintain their country.

    it's usually countries that have nothing to lose that are dangerous. but today, with nuclear arsenal, the damage is too extensive to be worthwhile.
     
  20. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/north-korea-trump-agreed-to-lift-sanctions
    Which follows immediately from:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/12/chi...f-for-north-korea-after-trump-kim-summit.html
    He fucked it up. Unless, of course, he had a somewhat different agenda than one would assume of a President:
    http://yastreblyansky.blogspot.com/2018/06/the-avant-garde-art-of-deal.html#more
    China may yet win that horrible war, and by one the oldest of stratagems: suborning treachery in the enemy's command.
     
  21. CptBork Robbing the Shalebridge Cradle Valued Senior Member

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    The whole point of US troops being stationed in South Korea is so that the US will take casualties in the event of a northern attack and will therefore be forced to participate in the conflict. The current US presence there isn't intended to be large enough to stop a full-scale attack on its own, it's just the vanguard. So if it looks like the North doesn't want to attack and start a war, then the US doesn't need to spend money or generate tensions by retaining a presence there.

    Skipping an annual military exercise on a one-time basis isn't going to jeopardize South Korea's national security, and the US doesn't look like it's anywhere near to pulling its forces from the peninsula at present. Whatever deal is made with China/North Korea will be a good if not great one, as long as such a deal doesn't make it profitable for dictators to build nuclear arsenals and then extort other countries for concessions in exchange for dismantling, and South Korea retains its democratic independence.

    What matters most, IMO, is that everyone appears to be interested in a deal and genuinely fearful of the consequences a war would bring. So things are looking pretty good at the moment and hopefully the positive momentum will continue.
     
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  22. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    The deal as described so far appears to provide large concessions to Kim in return for much less than dismantling - the mere promise of working toward dismantling was enough.
    That is - on the face of it - not quite the same as discouraging the tactic.
     
  23. CptBork Robbing the Shalebridge Cradle Valued Senior Member

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    It's not like they can't hold exercises next year if Mr. Kim backtracks on his own commitments. Other than that, Mr. Trump can say anything he wants about an eventual military pullout without it actually affecting anything on the ground, especially when he's already prone to reneging on existing deals as is. Surely by the time the sun burns out, the US will have left its bases in South Korea.
     

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