Cohn, Timothy A.; Lins, Harry F.(2005) Nature's style: Naturally trendy, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 32, No. 23, L23402 8 December 2005 And the conclusion in my own words (copyright). Costs 9$ to check if I'm cheating: The authors conclude that their findings have implications for both science and public policy. The evidence is rather convincing that the planet has warmed in the 20th century. Assuming that the current knowlegde about complexity, long-term persistence, and non-linearity of the climate system is correct, this warming could have been caused by natural dynamics. The reported trends are real but actually insignificant. This suggests that natural climatic variation may be much larger than assumed; large enough to make the observations of the past century insignificant, whether human-induced or not.
Now, the curious thing here is that this thread that basically makes global warming unneccesary, got no reaction at all. Contrary to the media attention it has got: Just google: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q="Nature's style: Naturally trendy" &btnG=Google search&lr= See all the head lines: "No More Global Warming" BBC reports "Global Warming Scare Terminated, Kyoto to be abandoned" The Herald Tribune "Natural or Human, Global Warming Insignificant anyway", New Science etc, etc, Now think about this, what would have been the role of the media in creating the myth of global warming? and what would happen to first who proves conclusively that the hype is unfounded? He'll be shot and dissapear quietly, nobody needs to know.
Yep, it's strange. Maybe cause panic and guilt? I thought already a few years ago, some other independant researchers had found evidence against the global warming as induced by man, but they got no more funding for their work. One of them got a threatening call that his carreer would be done if he continued , and more of that kind of stuff scientists aren't supposed to do. And despite of this, you keep having these funny people roaming around on forums telling that scientists will be happy to drop a theory when evidence points the other way. Btw, how are you Andre? Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
This is a whacko hypothesis printed in an obscure journal probably by som up-coming scientists who needs to post to get attention and find a job. We've already disproved the null hypothesis through our undeniable extensive findings. This guy states: "We consider statistical trend tests of hydroclimatological data in the presence of long-term persistence (LTP). Monte Carlo experiments employing FARIMA models indicate that trend tests which fail to consider LTP greatly overstate the statistical significance of observed trends when LTP is present. A new test is presented that avoids this problem. From a practical standpoint, however, it may be preferable to acknowledge that the concept of statistical significance is meaningless when discussing poorly understood systems" We have clearly proven through scientific measurements the LTP (Long Term Persistence). Further, as he states, he is only referring to "Monte Carlo experiments employing FARIMA models." This is extremely esoteric. As if he is God and thinks that all experiments should utilize Monte Carlo techniques and FAIRMA models? What an ass! Just who the hell does this jerk think he is, imposing own personal scientific methodology restrictions to how we analyze experimental studies! Sounds like he was pressured into writing something in a journal for advancement in his academic position and figured he'd just throw something together that no one would understand to criticize or that could not be applied to most cases - and it can't. Dumb!
Let me resume all of that post, but without insults and fallacies. So what you are saying is ........
I think that, in the mean time, we all know that valich is not so pleasant in discussions. He knows too much Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Hi Kevin, Well, knowing the art of google, copy and paste is something different I guess. Then you get to Richards Mullers famous quote of Josh Billings: "The trouble with most folks ain't so much their ignorance as knowing so many things that ain't so." An epidemy these days.
