Discussion in 'Computer Science & Culture' started by wet1, Jul 16, 2001.
In several posts you have made mention of Moore's Law. Please explain.
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The power of a computer will double every 18 months.
This has pretty much held for the past 50 years.
In the past few years it appears to have changed to every 12 months.
Hope that helps.
I highly recommend the book The age of Spiritual Machines-when computers exceed human intelligence by Ray Kurzweil. This book expand on the Moores Law.
It is a great read...
Try Robo Sapiens (Evolution of a New Species) as well, by Peter Menzel and Faith D'Aluisio. The color photos of some the lab systems are pretty good.
And Robot (Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind) by Hans Moravec.
hehe, I could have used those books last year for my Information processing and technology subject, but anyway.
I find it amazing to say the least that Moores law has stood for this long. However, I do think that as time goes on it will be very interesting to see whether Moores law will be relevent. I think, financially it may get harder for the Chip makers to keep on building more fabs to produce the actual processors. Not to mention the hurdle of getting past silicon, and perhaps on to DNA at 2010, if Moores law still continues then.
What are your thoughts?
Moores Law does not talk about a specific architecture, it talks about the topic. Yes there will be a limit on the 2 dimensional chips, them it may go to multi layered chips, but ultimately that technology may give away to optical computing or massive parallel computing. So, the architecture could be different yet the result will be the same.
This is almost an exponential curve. Where it will end, who knows? If you look at the technology for the last 2000 years and compare it over the last 100,000 years, you will see that we are on a log scale and not in a linear scale. But we think in linear terms. Soon we will be in that part of the curve where time compresses to months and not years.
That will be interesting. We need to start a new topic/post on this very phenomena and how it will affect our economy.
What about Rotaxane?
I'm wondering how Moore's Law will relate to a leap like that promised in '99 when HP and UCLA scientists hit on the rotaxane molecule; admittedly, the article I'm providing is old by tech standards, but I'm looking for newer information ... I recall that when I first heard about it, the micronization of interface technology was the big hurdle, and UCLA's team was estimating 2010 or so. But what would a leap of 100,000,000,000 times the processing power indicate?
Amazing Voyage? Imagine a fullerene molecule structure containing the medication of your choice (space limitations recognized), mounted with a rotaxane computer capable of driving microscrews: you could, literally, deliver to individual cells at this point, though Frankenstein superstitions give me a slight shudder.
Nonetheless, even if we have this technology on our desks by 2020, software must necessarily improve to meet the capabilities. I took great delight this weekend, riding home from the festival, when I saw a Korum Ford sign in Fife, Washington (Milton? Fife? Somewhere right in there.) which contained a video display intended to push cars onto motorists stuck in ridiculous traffic. My heart lightened when I saw the familiar red circle with a white X, disproportionate on the screen as the whole Windows-based system crashed out. Can you imagine crashing 100 billion times harder? Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
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Any technology development from an idea takes a while to produce a prototype. There are many methods to reach an objective. It is like an automobile that can run on a diesel engine, gasoline engine, rotary engine, fuel cell/electric motor, sterling engine etc. The one that is economical to mass produce is the one that takes off.
There are discontinuities in the technological development too. We really do not know, what specific gadget will dominate next ten years anymore than what new toy will be hot next christmas season. So who knows: Optical computing, Quantum Computing, Protein Computing....
Whatever it is, it will be faster than what we have today. You can talk to it, access news, information, store and retrieve information and so on.
Here is my view of the future(because I am designing it today):
Everyone will have a PDA type gadget that will connect to your homebase computer via wireless network. The same gadget will also connect to your office base computer. You talk to your PDA for all your communication needs. You can access any information you subscribe to, order pizza, plane ticket, rental car so on. Every transaction you do on your daily routine will be via the PDA. When you show up at the hotel, you will be automatically checked in to your prefered room. Your PDA will act as the room key for the duration of your stay and so on.
The PDA will have your personality, your likes and dislikes and so on...You get the point...
Discontinuities can accelarate Moores Law, like Motorola's declaration that Gallium Arsenide chips speeds up 40 times the present equivalent.
I was listening to a radio program and they had some guy saying something about what you are saying was what caused the big dot com crash. I forget what it is called or what company was producing it. but what happened was that it wasn't implemented properly and basically didn't work and companies were pitting themselves on this revolution in e-commerce.
If that does come to fruition I hope it is implemented properly.
Elsewhere I talked about "Complexity Management". That is mostly why the dotcoms crashed. I have a few very smart friends who are taking my idea and organizing such a way that it can be understood and implemented properly. (The ideas and procedures are locked in my brain but having difficulties making them useful, hence the partnership...)
YES, that is correct, Deadwood.
I hope they can get it right, but please don't let them give us the 'You need this to survive' approach. I have noticed a trend with big companies that they are very successful, then they start telling there customers what they want instead of giving the customers what they want. ie Intel and Rambus.
I don't think right now mainstream humanity is ready for this PDA. In a few years after the internet is a bigger part and more integrated in our and more lives perhaps that would be the time to start selling this, otherwise the PDA may be looked at as a passing fad.
Locked in your brain hey? I think it was Socrates(sp?) who didn't write down any of his ideas either, lest they be stolen. Smart move, keep it quiet. I have told you how me and a friends ideas and work have been stolen, lost etc so keeping it in your brain may be the way to go for something so big. I wish you luck.
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