Is there revolutions in arab countries coming near?

S.A.M. · Jan 26, 2011

Michael said: ↑

1) I don't believe in race.
2) Muslim Civilization is an oxymoron. Nevertheless, do you conciser the European Colonization "Christian Civilization"? You know, you're living IN a Christian Civilization right now, using a Christian computer, that runs of Christians electricity and connects to the Christian Internet.
3) I suppose it's a matter of defining the word "Arab". SAM seems to suggest Assyrians were Arabs. Yet, there are two million Assyrians or so, living in Iraq, and they seem to think they're Assyrian. Maybe SAM can let them know they're actually Arab :shrug:
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In some distant past, the Assyrian Empire was divided into Syria and Assyria by the Romans. So you could say that some partial populations adopted the Arab identity and some [who call themselves Assyrians] did not. Thats hardly surprisingly. Even in India, we have some people like the Chaus who maintain an Arab identity [apart from all the other Arab communities] but no one who maintains a Hun identity [the Gujjars are technically migrants from Hun lands].

And many settled at the invitation of local non-Arabs or non-Muslims

Between 1178 and 1242, Vastupal and Sheth Jagdusha built mosques in Cambay and Bhadreshwar in Kutch to attract Arab and Turkish traders, who would bring in foreign exchange. While Vastupal was the commissioner of Cambay port, Jagdusha was a merchant of Bhadreshwar port in Kutch. Jains have been an important business community from the earliest time till today.

'History of International Trade And Customs Duties In Gujarat', a book by historian Makrand Mehta, says Vastupal encouraged Muslims to settle down in Cambay and Anhilwad Patan, the capital of the Solanki-Vaghela rulers of Gujarat.

Read more: Gujarat built mosques to draw Arab ships - The Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...b-ships/articleshow/5582255.cms#ixzz1C9Of49m5
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Similarly we have Parsi communities in India who are Zoroastrians and don't identify with Iranians, even though Iranians don't identify with Arabs, etc. Hence my definition of Arab as a culture rather than an ethnicity.

When the USA collapses, someone will fill the place of the Americans. We'll see if they treat the middle east as benevolently. Because, to tell you the truth, never in the history of the world would any other nation have allowed KSA to keep their oil wealth. Most nations in the past, with the capabilities of the USA, would have simply taken the oil. Extermination was not uncommon even a few generations ago.
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You forget, there is a vast history of trade in the East which precedes the USA. We will see what happens - one thing you can depend on, in Eastern societies is that they don't live in the present and hence understand the importance of maintaining societies that will coexist for the future.

But no one knows what will happen.

I wonder if China, or Russia, or India will happily pay $100s of billions a year to ensure the trade-lanes are free and safe. Unlike: All roads lead to Rome, modern trade is nearly free anywhere in the world. Somehow I think it will be a user-pay system. aka: You will probably pay for access to trade routes that are, today, free and safe. No more uncle SAM (pun not intended
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giving away free candy. Well, everyone whines like little ingrates anyway. So, let them eat cake.
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Possibly China Russia or India will not pay gazillions to ensure safe trade lanes. But perhaps, they will not need to. You might want to take a look at how they do trade now, between each other.

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Shadow1 · Jan 26, 2011

.

Michael said: ↑

1) I don't believe in race.
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then what the hell is your problem? :bugeye: :shrug:
stay on topic!

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S.A.M. · Jan 26, 2011

Shadow1 said: ↑

then what the hell is your problem? :bugeye: :shrug:
stay on topic!
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Sorry, its my fault for allowing him to derail the topic into the "evil Arabs/Muslims" etc. But I can't tolerate all the BS. I'll stop now.

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Shadow1 · Jan 26, 2011

.

Michael said: ↑

1)
2)
3)
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where's the 4) ? and 5)? it's rude to stop their

When the USA collapses, someone will fill the place of the Americans. We'll see if they treat the middle east as benevolently. Because, to tell you the truth, never in the history of the world would any other nation have allowed KSA to keep their oil wealth. Most nations in the past, with the capabilities of the USA, would have simply taken the oil. Extermination was not uncommon even a few generations ago.

I wonder if China, or Russia, or India will happily pay $100s of billions a year to ensure the trade-lanes are free and safe. Unlike: All roads lead to Rome, modern trade is nearly free anywhere in the world. Somehow I think it will be a user-pay system. aka: You will probably pay for access to trade routes that are, today, free and safe. No more uncle SAM (pun not intended
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giving away free candy. Well, everyone whines like little ingrates anyway. So, let them eat cake.
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aha, you can't know what will happen, so, the USA is the "saviour" of the world? or something like that? and without it, we will all get lost and destruction will full upon us? hmm, lmao :m:

Shadow1 · Jan 26, 2011

.

S.A.M. said: ↑

Sorry, its my fault for allowing him to derail the topic into the "evil Arabs/Muslims" etc. But I can't tolerate all the BS. I'll stop now.
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it's ok S.A.M.

S.A.M. · Jan 26, 2011

Back on topic. Is it true that Mubarak's son and his family have fled Egypt? Or just rumour?

Also, the Egyptian army is not sympathetic to the people, unlike the Tunisian army. So how are they treating the people?

Shadow1 · Jan 26, 2011

i think it's just a rumour.
I have noo idea, also, it's not the soliders decision to choose to fight or not, but their general is who order them, and they can never deny an order, that's the military.
anyway, did they send army? i didnt see them, but i sa the bob police, means those police that have that cover on their heads and throwt he gas bombs and etc...

Michael · Jan 27, 2011

So? Are the Egyptians going to do it or what?

S.A.M. · Jan 27, 2011

Michael said: ↑

So? Are the Egyptians going to do it or what?
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They seem to be and its spreading to other countries in the region:

In Egypt, the Arab world’s largest and most populous country of more than 80 million, massive demonstrations involving tens of thousands of people began on Tuesday in what was billed as a “Day of Anger” and are continuing despite a ban by a very rattled government. Smaller protests are likewise occurring in Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Algeria. The domino effect so feared by Middle Eastern strongmen after Tunisian protesters chased their president from power earlier this month after a 24-year rule may soon become reality in Egypt.

Inspired by events in Tunisia, demonstrators took to the streets in Cairo on Tuesday to protest against President Hosni Mubarak’s corrupt, authoritarian regime, demanding political freedoms and higher wages. During those demonstrations, which saw water cannon and tear gas employed, three people died in encounters with security forces. A policeman was also killed.

“With us, there has been a cautious reawakening of belief in our own strength,” an Egyptian journalist told the German newspaper, Die Welt.

According to the Egyptian newspaper, The Daily News, the demonstrations were organized by the National Association for Change, which contains various opposition groups, and the Popular Parliament. January 25 was chosen as the day to launch mass movement because it coincided with a national holiday that commemorates another famous protest in Egyptian history. On this date in 1952, Egyptian police rose up against the British occupation.

Mubarak has ruled Egypt for the past 30 years under a state of emergency, imposed in 1981, that has allowed him to deal harshly with dissent. Under this law, large anti-government demonstrations, like the ones currently underway in Egypt, were quickly ended. Like most other Arab countries, Egypt has also been badly ruled during Mubarak’s time.

Corruption, unemployment, a stagnant economy and a dishonest, inefficient bureaucracy were the time bombs that caused the current explosion in Egypt, as they did in Tunisia. But unlike Tunisia, which has a 78 percent literacy rate and a developed, although frustrated, middle class, the majority of Egyptians are illiterate and live in grinding poverty. Egyptian cities are crowded with the poor. Exploitation of workers and child labor are also common. What is worse, the small, well-off ruling class appears not to care and has done little to remedy this appalling situation.

“We undoubtedly have enough problems in order to justify a revolution,” the journalist said.

Arab governments like Egypt’s are not unaware of the grievances that caused the Arab street to explode. Nepotism and control of the economy by the rulers’ friends and families have led to economic stagnation and high unemployment. But Arab leaders have refused to introduce liberal reforms to address the problems, fearing an Arab “perestroika” would see them swept away like the communist regimes in Eastern Europe.

Traditional methods of maintaining civil control also do not appear to be working. Large security forces and handouts to the population, the traditional methods of quelling popular unrest in Arab countries, were ineffective in Tunisia and are proving similarly ineffective in Egypt. The police appear to have have lost their power to intimidate the Egyptian population and prevent the demonstrations from growing into a destabilizing threat. In the past, anti-government demonstrators feared to appear on Egypt’s streets. Now, in contrast, protesters are tearing up posters with Mubarak’s image, yelling: “Mubarak, you’re plane awaits you.” One Arab publication reported that Mubarak’s son and heir, Gamal Mubarak, took the protesters’ advice and left on Wednesday with his family for England.

more: http://frontpagemag.com/2011/01/27/losing-egypt/
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[yes I know its FPM but conservatives are more likely to report details on what is happening in these states, the democrats seem to be unsure whether to support their allies or support the revolution]

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The Big Picture is on the ball

Protest spreads in the Middle East
The issues in Tunisia, Lebanon, and Egypt differ, but yesterday anger boiled over in all three countries as grievances were brought to the streets. In Tunisia, where protests have already overthrown President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, continued demonstrations sought to depose his allies still in their positions. Meanwhile Tunisia's interim government has issued an international arrest warrant for the former president and members of his family. In Lebanon, Sunni supporters of ousted Prime Minister Saad Hariri took to the streets in a "day of rage", burning tires and blockading roads in Tripoli and Sidon. It was in Egypt where the most dramatic events unfolded as the largest protests in a generation rocked Cairo. Demonstrators, many inspired by events in Tunisia, called for an end to nearly 30 years of rule by President Hosni Mubarak. Collected here are photographs from all three countries. -- Lane Turner
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http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/01/protest_spreads_in_the_middle.html

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dbnp48 · Jan 27, 2011

There are now protests in Yemen as well.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/world/middleeast/28yemen.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

S.A.M. · Jan 28, 2011

The Muslim Brotherhood has decided to join the protests in Egypt. As the biggest opposition group, and the most organised, this now makes for a turning point in the uprising. So far, the military has kept out of it, but with the MB popping in, all bets are off

Helena Cobban has summarised it pretty well
http://justworldnews.org/archives/004132.html

Today, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt announced their decision to join the mass protest in the country tomorrow. (That's #jan28 in Tweetspeak.) This is huge. The MB is far and away the largest force in Egypt's opposition. It has pursued a determinedly nonviolent path for nearly 30 years now-- though that has not prevented the Mubarak regime from engaging in a sustained campaign of often horrendously abusive repression against its leaders and many of its cadres. The MB's leaders have responded to the repression by sticking to a political course that is very conservative and non-confrontational. Often, in recent years, they have been criticized by members of other movements or even younger members of their own for not joining in or giving any support to the various waves of street protests or labor activity that have erupted around the country.

But now, they are joining in. This could very well mean the end of the Mubarak regime. Which has, of course, been the central pillar of the US-Israeli imperium in the region ever since the 1979 signing of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty.

I do not rule out the possibility that Mubarak and his people may try to cut a last-minute deal with the MB, in a last attempt to avoid the humiliating fate of his Tunisian friend, former Pres. Z. ben Ali. Or, that the MB's leaders may be open to such a deal. Actually, I think the MB would be more open to discussing such a deal than Mubarak would be, to offering it. After all, for the guy who has been Pharaoh of all the Egyptians for 30 years now, and whose family and hangers-on have all profited very nicely thank-you from their control of the country's economy, the idea of cutting a deal with these stern and powerful contenders for power must seem very threatening. Perhaps just flying to Saudi Arabia or Morocco while sending his son to watch over the bank accounts in Zurich would seem more attractive for an old guy now certainly ready to enjoy his "retirement"?

He and his American advisers probably have a few other ideas and/or tricks up their sleeves.

For now, the word from Washington seems-- realistically-- to be one of trying to urge Mubarak's security forces not to use live fire against the protesters. That is certainly very welcome.

I imagine that Mubarak, the Americans, and maybe even the Israelis have networks inside Egyptian society that they might be tempted to activate, to act as agents provocateurs and undertake those kinds of acts that might, in the view of some, "justify" an escalation in the use of force by the Amn al-Merkezi riot police-- or even, the intervention of the army.

It is not entirely clear, though, that in a situation of massive unrest, the regime could rely on the army.

Also, the acts of agents provocateurs can only really be successful in a situation where the opposition is ill-organized and/or lacks discipline. If the MB does bring its heft onto the streets tomorrow, they will bring correspondingly massive amounts of organization and discipline.

* * *

What changes might we see if an MB-dominated or heavily MB-influenced government emerges in Cairo? Would such a government "immediately" revoke the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty of 1979-- a step that has been part of the MB's political program, ever since the program was first promulgated? Not necessarily. But the Cairo government's policy on all (other) matters Palestinian would be very different from today. No longer would it merely act as the cat's-paw of Israel and Washington in repressing Gaza, supporting a broad range of activities to undercut and destroy Hamas, and staying quite silent internationally on Israel's many gross transgressions in the OPTs.

But (gasp!) such a deviation from the US-Israeli line might result-- almost certainly would result-- in the US Congress cutting off the $2.3 billion $1.55 billion in aid that it sends to Egypt every year! Big deal. The vast majority of that aid never benefitted real Egyptians. Instead, it went to prop up the very same security forces whose main purpose has been to oppress them.
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Shadow1 · Jan 28, 2011

Egypte: yupe, pretty sure not gonna stop intill they kick their dictator's ass.
Jordan: Loading (already many many protestations even after the cut with 50% in prices and etc...)
Yeman: Loading (also protestations)

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Shadow1 · Jan 28, 2011

.

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R CD, RCD
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hehe, RCD, leave!
(in tunisia)
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(protestations are over for now anyway)

spidergoat · Jan 29, 2011

Do you know what's really interesting? Tea Party idiots take note: no guns were required to overthrow the government in Tunisia (and probably Egypt by the time this is over). But they do need the internet.

swivel · Feb 4, 2011

spidergoat said: ↑

Do you know what's really interesting? Tea Party idiots take note: no guns were required to overthrow the government in Tunisia (and probably Egypt by the time this is over). But they do need the internet.
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Ha. Awesome point. All you need is rocks and crazy religion, and America has tons of both.

Sock puppet path · Feb 4, 2011

S.A.M. said: ↑

In some distant past, the Assyrian Empire was divided into Syria and Assyria by the Romans. So you could say that some partial populations adopted the Arab identity and some [who call themselves Assyrians] did not.
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Romans?? and when might this have been?

After the Arab Islamic invasion and conquest of the 7th Century AD, the new arrivals began a process of Arabization and Islamification (which is ongoing to this day). Assyria and Babylon were dissolved as entities and pressure was put on the native Mesopotamians to convert to Islam and adopt Arabic language and identity. Over the next few centuries Assyria and Mesopotamia saw a steady influx of non native peoples such as Arabs, Kurds and later Turkic peoples, and those retaining native Mesopotamian culture, identity, language, religion and customs were steadily marginalised and gradually became a minority in their own homeland. This process was largely completed by the massacres of native Mesopotamian Christians by Tamerlane the Mongol in the 14th Century AD. However, many resisted the process of 'Arabization and Islamification, retaining a distinct Mesopotamian identity, eastern Aramaic tongue, written script, and Christian faith. The modern Assyrians or Chaldo-Assyrians of today (and the Mandeans also) are those people
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Link

The assyrians are who they are, it was their refusal to accept islam which led to them being separated from the rest of the population and persecuted.

Sock puppet path · Feb 4, 2011

A possible interesting link for any who can speak Arabic, a live feed from Egypt. (I don't understand the lingo)

http://www.vgtv.no/#id=36771

S.A.M. · Feb 4, 2011

Sock puppet path said: ↑

Romans?? and when might this have been?

Link

The assyrians are who they are, it was their refusal to accept islam which led to them being separated from the rest of the population and persecuted.
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They were separated by the Romans:

Assyria or Assyria Provincia was one of three provinces (Armenia, Mesopotamia, and Assyria) created by the Roman emperor Trajan[1] in 116 CE following a successful military campaign against Parthia, in present-day Iraq. Despite Rome's military victory, Trajan's province was plagued with difficulties from the start. In 116, a Parthian prince named Santruces organized an armed revolt by the natives in the new Roman provinces. During the revolt, Roman garrisons in Assyria and Mesopotamia were driven from their posts, and a Roman general was killed as his army tried unsuccessfully to stop the rebellion.[2]

When Trajan died in 117, his successor, Hadrian, implemented a new policy with respect to the recently acquired territories in the east. Hadrian believed that the empire was overextended, and wanted to retract Roman rule to more easily defensible borders.[3] As a result, Hadrian evacuated Trajan's three provinces in 118
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and:

Assyria existed as part of a unified Akkadian nation from the 24th Century BC to the 21st Century BC, and a nation state from the 21th Century BC until 608 BC.

Following the collapse of the empire, Assyria was split between the Roman and Achaemenid provinces of Syria and Assyria.[1] The Assyrian people were Christianized in the 1st to 3rd centuries,[2] in Roman Syria and Persian Assyria.[1] They were divided by the Nestorian Schism in the 5th century, and from the 8th century, they became a religious minority following the Islamic conquest of Mesopotamia. They suffered a genocide at the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and today to a significant extent live in diaspora.
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They have lived in various parts of the Middle East for thousands of years, don't forget that modern day names of states do not correspond to ancient empires:

Assyrians in Syria have lived in north eastern Syria since 2000 BC, parts of the region were an integral part of Assyria proper, and during the Neo Assyrian Empire (911-608 BC) the entirety of the modern country of Syria was under Assyrian rule. The term Syria is itself a Greek corruption of Assyria and was originally applied only to northern Iraq and north eastern Syria during Seleucid Greek rule. When the Greeks lost control over northern Iraq and nort east Syria to the Parthians the term Syria was used to describe what is essentially modern Syria. A further influx settled there at the beginning of the French Mandate of Syria as refugees from the now Turkish areas north of present-day Syria, then as refugees from the newly independent Iraq in 1933 after the massacres of Assyrians there
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They were massacred in Turkey by the Young Turks, who were atheist, not Muslims. And in Iraq due to the same political climate that caused the naqba, except that unlike the Jews, the Iraqis were all natives and unlike the Palestinians, the Assyrians were unable to get asylum probably because they were seen as both, pro-British and secessionists:

In early August 1933, more than 1,000 Assyrians who had been refused asylum in Syria crossed the border to return to their villages in Northern Iraq. The French, who at the time were controlling Syria, had notified the Iraqis that the Assyrians were not armed; but while the Iraqi soldiers were disarming those whose arms had been returned by the French, shots were fired resulting in 30 Iraqi and Assyrian casualties, and the repulsion of the Iraqi Army. Anti-Assyrian and Anti-British xenophobia, apparent throughout the crisis, accelerated.[5] Reports circulated of Assyrian mutilation of Iraqi soldiers (later proven to be totally false). In Baghdad, the government panicked, fearing disaster as the Assyrians presented a formidable fighting force that could provoke a general uprising in the north. The government unleashed armed Kurdish irregulars who killed some 120 unarmed inhabitants of two Assyrian villages in the week of August 2 to August 9 (with most of the massacre occurring on August 7). Then on August 11, Kurdish Iraqi Army General Bakr Sidqi (who had clashed with Assyrians before) led a march to what was then one of the most heavily inhabited Assyrian area in Iraq, the Simele district.
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Like Parsis and Orthodox Jews, they are an ethnocentric people who don't assimilate or intermarry. Assyrian nationalism is a very modern phenomenon, nineteenth century. There are more Arab Christians in the world than there are Jews and most of them have immigrated in the post colonial period. It seems to me that they seem far less safe under secular puppet dictators than they have been for the last 1400 years. What I find fascinating is that if they want an Assyrian nation based on their race and ethnicity, why are they practising Christianity? Why not the Assyrian religion, Ashurism? Most of the people who harken back to tribe generally stick to their tribal gods, even if they dress them up differently. Why was Ashurism wiped out after 4 centuries of Christianity? If they were able to resist Islam for 1400 years, why didn't they resist conversion to Christianity?

What is even more fascinating is that while I can understand the post colonial desires of Britain and France to control the Balkanisation of the Middle East, how the frick did Americans wind up with the job of defending ethnocentric groups with aspirations for tribal states? Why aren't you campaigning for the Cherokee nation? The Iroquois nation? There is plenty of tribalism to find at home, isn't there?

sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyro-Babylonian_religion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Assyrian_people
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Turks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyrian_Genocide
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyria_(Roman_province)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyrian_homeland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyrian_diaspora
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyrians_in_Syria

Sock puppet path · Feb 4, 2011

S.A.M. said: ↑

They were separated by the Romans:

and:

They have lived in various parts of the Middle East for thousands of years, don't forget that modern day names of states do not correspond to ancient empires:

They were massacred in Turkey by the Young Turks, who were atheist, not Muslims. And in Iraq due to the same political climate that caused the naqba, except that unlike the Jews, the Iraqis were all natives and unlike the Palestinians, the Assyrians were unable to get asylum probably because they were seen as both, pro-British and secessionists:

Like Parsis and Orthodox Jews, they are an ethnocentric people who don't assimilate or intermarry. Assyrian nationalism is a very modern phenomenon, nineteenth century. There are more Arab Christians in the world than there are Jews and most of them have immigrated in the post colonial period. It seems to me that they seem far less safe under secular puppet dictators than they have been for the last 1400 years. What I find fascinating is that if they want an Assyrian nation based on their race and ethnicity, why are they practising Christianity? Why not the Assyrian religion, Ashurism? Most of the people who harken back to tribe generally stick to their tribal gods, even if they dress them up differently. Why was Ashurism wiped out after 4 centuries of Christianity? If they were able to resist Islam for 1400 years, why didn't they resist conversion to Christianity?

What is even more fascinating is that while I can understand the post colonial desires of Britain and France to control the Balkanisation of the Middle East, how the frick did Americans wind up with the job of defending ethnocentric groups with aspirations for tribal states? Why aren't you campaigning for the Cherokee nation? The Iroquois nation? There is plenty of tribalism to find at home, isn't there?

sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyro-Babylonian_religion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Assyrian_people
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Turks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyrian_Genocide
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyria_(Roman_province)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyrian_homeland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyrian_diaspora
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyrians_in_Syria
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Can you find any quotes in all those links that back your claim that the romans divided assyrians from syrians (specifics, dates??)[you realize the Achaemenids were persian right?]? It looks like a text wall of fail so far.

Oh and now that you have come with a new accusation "the atheist young turks massacred assyrians" you need to provide a link that demonstrates this, I don't see anything in what you posted.

Brian Foley · Feb 5, 2011

Shadow1 said: ↑

after the tunisian revolution almost finished succecfully,
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I think you better get a grip on reality, the Mid East has been the property of the West since the time of Alexander the Greats empire. Dictatorships in the Middle East rely on various forms of Western aid, and take Western direction in return. Yet even the imperialist dogs in the streets of the West can see the decayof these repressive regimes. If the West continues to support them, then Western interests may well be eclipsed when these regimes fall. And many Western governments now recognize that such falls are inevitable. But if the West abandons them they will fall all the quicker. And with no guarantee that West’s interests won’t carry the blame for the previous tyrannies longevity. This dilemma induce a state of inertia into Western policy making, the term ‘Democracy’ will appear repeatedly in every Foreign policy briefing. The support for Middle Eastern dictatorships will continue to be the actual policy of every Western government. Business as usual, I hope you understand that the Mid East like East Europe are vassal states of the West.

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