is peak oil a hoax?

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by ranxer, Mar 16, 2004.

  1. ranxer Registered Senior Member

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    http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr52.html

    long read that raises a lot of questions..

    excerpt from something like page 6:
    The notion that oil is a 'fossil fuel' was first proposed by Russian scholar Mikhailo Lomonosov in 1757. Lomonosov's rudimentary hypothesis, based on the limited base of scientific knowledge that existed at the time, and on his own simple observations, was that "Rock oil originates as tiny bodies of animals buried in the sediments which, under the influence of increased temperature and pressure acting during an unimaginably long period of time, transform into rock oil."

    Two and a half centuries later, Lomonosov's theory remains as it was in 1757 -- an unproved, and almost entirely speculative, hypothesis. Returning once again to the Wall Street Journal, we find that, "Although the world has been drilling for oil for generations, little is known about the nature of the resource or the underground activities that led to its creation." A paragraph in the Encyclopedia Britannica concerning the origins of oil ends thusly: "In spite of the great amount of scientific research ... there remain many unresolved questions regarding its origins."

    Does that not seem a little odd? We are talking here, after all, about a resource that, by all accounts, plays a crucial role in a vast array of human endeavors (by one published account, petroleum is a raw ingredient in some 70,000 manufactured products, including medicines, synthetic fabrics, fertilizers, paints and varnishes, acrylics, plastics, and cosmetics). By many accounts, the very survival of the human race is entirely dependent on the availability of petroleum. And yet we know almost nothing about this most life-sustaining of the earth's resources. And even though, by some shrill accounts, the well is about to run dry, no one seems to be overly concerned with understanding the nature and origins of so-called 'fossil fuels.' We are, rather, content with continuing to embrace an unproved 18th century theory that, if subjected to any sort of logical analysis, seems ludicrous.

    On September 26, 1995, the New York Times ran an article headlined "Geochemist Says Oil Fields May Be Refilled Naturally." Penned by Malcolm W. Browne, the piece appeared on page C1.

    Could it be that many of the world's oil fields are refilling themselves at nearly the same rate they are being drained by an energy hungry world? A geochemist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts ... Dr. Jean K. Whelan ... infers that oil is moving in quite rapid spurts from great depths to reservoirs closer to the surface. Skeptics of Dr. Whelan's hypothesis ... say her explanation remains to be proved ...
    Discovered in 1972, an oil reservoir some 6,000 feet beneath Eugene Island 330 [not actually an island, but a patch of sea floor in the Gulf of Mexico] is one of the world's most productive oil sources ... Eugene Island 330 is remarkable for another reason: it's estimated reserves have declined much less than experts had predicted on the basis of its production rate.
    "It could be," Dr. Whelan said, "that at some sites, particularly where there is a lot of faulting in the rock, a reservoir from which oil is being pumped might be a steady-state system -- one that is replenished by deeper reserves as fast as oil is pumped out" ...
    The discovery that oil seepage is continuous and extensive from many ocean vents lying above fault zones has convinced many scientists that oil is making its way up through the faults from much deeper deposits ...
    A recent report from the Department of Energy Task Force on Strategic Energy Research and Development concluded from the Woods Hole project that "there new data and interpretations strongly suggest that the oil and gas in the Eugene Island field could be treated as a steady-state rather than a fixed resource."
    The report added, "Preliminary analysis also suggest that similar phenomena may be taking place in other producing areas, including the deep-water Gulf of Mexico and the Alaskan North Slope" ...
    There is much evidence that deep reserves of hydrocarbon fuels remain to be tapped.

    This compelling article raised a number of questions, including: how did all those piles of dinosaur carcasses end up thousands of feet beneath the earth's surface? How do finite reservoirs of dinosaur goo become "steady-state" resources? And how does the fossil fuel theory explain the continuous, spontaneous venting of gas and oil?

    The Eugene Island story was revisited by the media three-and-a-half years later, by the Wall Street Journal (Christopher Cooper "Odd Reservoir Off Louisiana Prods Oil Experts to Seek a Deeper Meaning," Wall Street Journal, April 16, 1999).
    (http://www.oralchelation.com/faq/wsj4.htm)

    Something mysterious is going on at Eugene Island 330.
    Production at the oil field, deep in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana, was supposed to have declined years ago. And for a while. it behaved like any normal field: Following its 1973 discovery, Eugene Island 330's output peaked at about 15,000 barrels a day. By 1989, production had slowed to about 4,000 barrels a day.
    Then suddenly -- some say almost inexplicably -- Eugene Island's fortunes reversed. The field, operated by PennzEnergy Co., is now producing 13,000 barrels a day, and probable reserves have rocketed to more than 400 million barrels from 60 million. Stranger still, scientists studying the field say the crude coming out of the pipe is of a geological age quite different from the oil that gushed 10 years ago.
    All of which has led some scientists to a radical theory: Eugene Island is rapidly refilling itself, perhaps from some continuous source miles below the Earth's surface. That, they say, raises the tantalizing possibility that oil may not be the limited resource it is assumed to be.
    ... Jean Whelan, a geochemist and senior researcher from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts ... says, "I believe there is a huge system of oil just migrating" deep underground.
    ... About 80 miles off the Louisiana coast, the underwater landscape surrounding Eugene Island is otherworldly, cut with deep fissures and faults that spontaneously belch gas and oil.

    So now we are talking about a huge system of migrating dinosaur goo that is miles beneath the Earth's surface! Those dinosaurs were rather crafty, weren't they? Exactly three years later (to the day), the media once again paid a visit to the Gulf of Mexico. This time, it was Newsday that filed the report (Robert Cooke "Oil Field's Free Refill," Newsday, April 19, 2002).
    (http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/pkt/2002II/msg00071.html)
     
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  3. TruthSeeker Fancy Virtual Reality Monkey Valued Senior Member

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    I think the authour mistake petroleum for water... :bugeye:
    We don't need petroleum, we need water and food. We only "need" petroleum because we have all those toys that we have been creating for centuries...

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  5. TruthSeeker Fancy Virtual Reality Monkey Valued Senior Member

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    Btw... oil can even finish destroying us. If it wasn't for this piece of crap, we wouldn't have so many wars. I hope some day we run out of oil and we get fusion power. That would be a very good day....
     
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  7. guthrie paradox generator Registered Senior Member

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    I think the key here is:
    "Could it be that many of the world's oil fields are refilling themselves at nearly the same rate they are being drained by an energy hungry world?"

    compared to:
    "Eugene Island 330 is remarkable for another reason: it's estimated reserves have declined much less than experts had predicted on the basis of its production rate. "

    To sum it up- we are still taking the oil out of the ground faster than its being replenished. Thus, we will continue to have a massive oil shortage, it just gives us a few more years to replace everything that runs on oil.
     
  8. Gifted World Wanderer Registered Senior Member

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    Interesting, it would make us take a new look at what burning oil does to the carbon cycle.
     
  9. crazy151drinker Registered Senior Member

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    Im all for switching vehicles to other sources of fuel, however, we need petrolium for the 70,000+ other products.
     
  10. TruthSeeker Fancy Virtual Reality Monkey Valued Senior Member

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    What about fusion...?
     
  11. guthrie paradox generator Registered Senior Member

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    4,089
    He means plastics. But you can get bacteria to produce stuff, or use plant starch. Or even get it all from coal, which is a bit more complex and polluting.
    Fusion is still likely a decade or two away. I cringe to think what would happen if cheap clean easy done fusion was invented. The energy use of humanity would probably increase as long as they could keep building power plants. One SF author, in some stories set in 500 years time, has the earth victim of runaway global warming due in part to the massive thermal dumps from cheap fusion plants, and the degraded heat from their electricity.
     
  12. TruthSeeker Fancy Virtual Reality Monkey Valued Senior Member

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    Yep. Brasilian researchers were succesful enough in inventing a new kind of plastic that degrades much faster then the usual one. Good for the ambient.

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    Coal is not such a good idea tough. Using biologic technology (or whatever it's called) seems to be much better and smarter...

    IWe could probably have it by now. The thing is that this kind of good technology is very well not desired by the giants of petroleum. They don;t want such thing because they would be broke. In fact, all rich people depends basically on petroleum. If petroleum is gone, seems there will be no rich. Wealth would certainly be better distributed.

    I don't knwo fi that could happen...

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    Fusion is certainly pretty powerful tough...
     
  13. Rappaccini Redoubtable Registered Senior Member

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    No, "all rich people" do not "depends" on oil.

    No, I'm afraid there will still be "rich," no matter what happens to the no doubt dwindling petroleum.

    There is no reason to think wealth would be any better "distributed" in the future than it is now.
     
  14. TruthSeeker Fancy Virtual Reality Monkey Valued Senior Member

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    Indirectly they do, since most of the things we produce are produced with it.

    Not if there's no money...

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    If you have no hope... yes...
     
  15. guthrie paradox generator Registered Senior Member

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    Giants of petroleum? Look at BP. Theyve quietly snaffled many of the most innovative companies in solar power, indeed i think might have a chance of a lock on the market given more time. An oil company becoming an energy company and hedging its long term bets.
     

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