Is global warming even real?

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by Ilikeponies579, Dec 16, 2014.

  1. Anew Life isn't a question. Banned

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    I agree, human activity does affect anY climate, human behavioral and good ole' mr. & mrs. weather.

    I guess pretentiousness of words like so called hot and cold are relative..............................................
     
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  3. Amar Nath Reu Be your own guru Registered Senior Member

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    In the last three years, we have been having a comparatively colder weather with lots of snow on the hills.
     
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  5. origin Trump is the best argument against a democracy. Valued Senior Member

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    Well if the theory was "warming in your region" you might have a point but the real theory is GLOBAL warming, so regional variations don't really matter.
     
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  7. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    An Alaska had it's first ever year (since records began) without temperatures below zero, so using your logic (extrapolating a global trend from localized phenomena) surely that proves global warming right?
     
  8. Amar Nath Reu Be your own guru Registered Senior Member

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    Alaska will be nice without all that snow.

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    And I am surprised. Delhi touched 2.6 (C) a few days ago and that is sure to come back. Indian desert regularly touches zero.
     
  9. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    Thankyou for so perfectly illustrating the problem of making comments on global trends based on isolated kocal weather patterns...
     
  10. milkweed Valued Senior Member

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    Trippy is mistaken. It is one city in alaska (anchorage) they are talking about, a coastal city that is quite a bit warmer on average than inland alaska.
     
  11. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    which is warmer in the winter than Iowa
     
  12. origin Trump is the best argument against a democracy. Valued Senior Member

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    Actually all of alaska is getting warmer and the permafrost is melting. But I will let Trippy correct you with specifics.
     
  13. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    It's not 'just' Anchorage that's warm - it's most of Southern Alaska, and as in the winter of 2013/2014 i'll bet that the warmth extends inland as well.

    Although, milkweed, in this post you've illustrated another point that gets my goat from time to time - you're all too willing to say "It's warm because it's a coastal city in a warm microclimate", but should anybody try and blame a cold snap on unusual regional weather patterns...

    The irony is the cold that parts of the US are experiencing is, as I pointed out last year, related to the warmth in Alaska (it has to do with the way changing the temperature and pressure over Alaska pushes the jet streams around).

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    Last edited: Jan 1, 2015
  14. Randwolf Ignorance killed the cat Valued Senior Member

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    Indeed. Alaskan temperatures on average are getting warmer faster than anywhere else in the U.S.:

    Over the past 50 years, temperatures across Alaska increased by an average of 3.4°F. Winter warming was even greater, rising by an average of 6.3°F.[2]The rate of warming in Alaska was twice the national average over that same period of time. Average annual temperatures in Alaska are projected to increase an additional 3.5 to 7°F by the middle of this century.[2]

    http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/alaska.html
    In fact it is changing faster than anywhere else on Earth, at least according to this source:

    Temperatures have changed more in Alaska over the past 30 years than they have anywhere else on Earth: winters have warmed by a startling 5-6°F, compared with a global average of 1°F.

    http://alaskatrekker.com/alaska-weather/alaska-temperatures/
     
  15. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    the world is facing one of the biggest crisis in the history of history. girls are getting hotter and hotter [AXE]
     
  16. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    again
    not unexpected
    re/ the equable climate model
     
  17. Randwolf Ignorance killed the cat Valued Senior Member

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    With CO2 rising...
    The global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere – the primary driver of recent climate change – has reached 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in recorded history, according to data from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.
    ...
    Passing the 400 mark reminds me that we are on an inexorable march to 450 ppm and much higher levels. These were the targets for 'stabilization' suggested not too long ago. The world is quickening the rate of accumulation of CO2, and has shown no signs of slowing this down. It should be a psychological tripwire for everyone.

    – Dr. Michael Gunson
    http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/
    And successful simulations of the Eocene carried out at lower CO2 levels than before...
    Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models.
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24043872
    We may be headed right for that model...
     
  18. Amar Nath Reu Be your own guru Registered Senior Member

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    Why is that a crisis? Should it not be welcomed?
     
  19. milkweed Valued Senior Member

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    Alaska did not have its first ever year without temperatures below zero. Anchorage did, and it is one city on the coast and it is typically warmer than much of alaska.

    Since records began? Is that 1954 or 1917 ('17 being the oldest records I found on a quick, but incomplete search on Anchorage).

    Deflecting by showing temp anomaly maps doesnt change anything about what I said.

    You were mistaken. And thats that.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ge-alaska-never-saw-a-day-below-zero-in-2014/
     
  20. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    I'm reading: "An Alaska {?} had its - - - - - " . There's a word missing, reads as a typo. Definitely does not read as "Alaska" in general. Even after noting the "0" involved was Farenheit, not Celsius, no reasonable person would take that as an assertion about all of Alaska - it's unreasonable.

    But that's where good faith comes in, in a discussion: are you going to read for meaning, and respond with meaning?

    The climate change deniers tend to willfully mistake at any opportunity, and respond with innuendo.

    Here's another chance, see what happens: I claim that during the last unusually cold and severe winter in Minnesota not one place set a record low temperature for any date. That is, we had a very cold, near record cold, overall winter without a single record cold date anywhere.

    That's a fairly risky and striking assertion. Statistically, it's not the way to bet at all. And I haven't actually checked every weather station in the State for every date last winter. But the meaning remains even if I have spoken wrongly, even if some airport somewhere scored a record low in November or March: the winter temperatures are not dropping as much at night as they have in the past. The relationship between daytime and nighttime winter temperatures at higher latitudes has changed. And this is significant because 1) you can notice it for yourself - it's climate change people can register via memory and sense 2) it's a peculiarity of greenhouse gas warming, a feature not shared by other sources of warmer air temperatures such as increased sunlight intensity.

    So will there be 1)any responses 2) to the meaning?
     
  21. milkweed Valued Senior Member

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    The very next post:

    Now back into ignore for you.
     
  22. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    With unfortunate results for residents. From Discover:
    ========================
    Global Warming Forces an Alaska Town to Relocate
    By Eliza Strickland | April 27, 2009 3:42 pm

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    The 340 residents of Newtok, Alaska will soon be among the first “climate refugees” in the United States. Global warming has battered the tiny coastal town: As average yearly temperatures rise, coastal ice shelves melt as does the permafrost on which the town sits. The Ninglick River has overtaken the town as the ground level simultaneously sinks. As a result, the town’s scattered buildings are connected by a network of boardwalks across the mud.

    With the forces of nature arrayed against them, the townspeople have now voted to relocate their town to a new site nine miles inland, on higher ground by the river. “We are seeing the erosion, flooding and sinking of our village right now,” said Stanley Tom, a Yup’ik Eskimo and tribal administrator for the Newtok Traditional Council…. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has estimated that moving Newtok could cost $130 million. Twenty-six other Alaskan villages are in immediate danger, with an additional 60 considered under threat in the next decade, according to the corps.

    Architects have already designed an evacuation shelter to be built at the site of the new town, and the U.S. military will build a temporary road to the shelter locale this summer. The shelter will have wood-heated steam baths, a gravity-fed sewer system and a permafrost-chilled cellar. Construction of the 8,500-square-foot shelter could begin next year…. The shelter, designed like a huge Quonset hut with a boxy wing on one side, will be a critical step for residents looking for a way to leave their village.

    The townspeople’s decision illustrates global warming’s impact on people living near the Arctic. While the Yup’ik Eskimos of Newtok were making their decision, the first Indigenous Peoples’ Global Summit was taking place in Anchorage, Alaska, with representatives from 80 nations on hand to discuss how global warming is affecting their communities. Indigenous people are among those contributing least to the worsening problem of greenhouse gases and climate change, said Miguel d’Escoto Brockmann, president of the United Nations General Assembly. However, he said they are the first to feel the impacts of climate change.
    ==========================
     
  23. milkweed Valued Senior Member

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    The village is below sea level, and sinking.

    The current village site was once only a winter camp, and the people of Newtok say they are not to blame just because they are now among the first climate refugees in the United States.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/27/us/27newtok.html?_r=0

    Probably a good reason why historically, this was a winter camp.
     

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