Is global warming an Environmental Concern?

Very rigorous arguments, Edufer -- but wasted on your target! I would submit that even from a superficial analysis of his posts, he clearly lacks even a rudamentary background in astrophysics, atmospheric-physics, thermodynamics and possibly even high school physics. His remedial and dronish harangues in effect that, local/regional climatic events are not relevant to the global equation, demonstrates a manifest ignorance of the role of proxy data/sampling in climatology.

But on to more interesting things, in a 2-part question:
1) Why is it not widely criticised, that there was additional selective omission of Keigwin's 1000 year subset (of his 3000 year Sargasso Sea Core proxy data -- published in Science NOV'96), in Mann-Bradley-Hughes et al's hockeyschtick paper? The data was available to MBH'98 and subsequent papers; plus there is Sargasso's unique status in both oceanography and geography, which offers a very powerful proxy for paleoclimatologists. Getting specific, doesn't Keigwin's Table 1 and the Figure 4B graphic offer powerful proxy data independent of the industrial-revolution, and against AGW theory in general -- 4-5 periods warmer than present, and faster extended-warming rate periods (than present) is compelling?

2) Is there climate science consensus that the sum total of rebuttal publishing (post Mann'98 and his self-serving, self-citing rehash in IPCC'01), up to and including von Storch (in Science OCT'04), has broken the hockeyschtick? Are thoughtful representatives of our species now ready to laugh knowingly, when MBH'98 or IPCC'01/Mann'01 are used to support AGW?

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

I thought the hockey stick theory was flawed???

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

Well I thought that the hockeystick was broken.


I guess that the British government did not know about the Van Storch publication coming up:

http://www.odpm.gov.uk/stellent/groups/odpm_planning/documents/page/odpm_plan_032088.pdf

Solely based on the hockeystick :bugeye:

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

Yep -- Mann et al's hockeystick strikes again! One would think that before one invests in a 4-color propaganda brochure, that they would avoid using the graph of AGW's most notorious and decisively rebuked scientists (MBH)! Speaking of notorious and decisively rebuked, where's our IPCC PR agent been? Has he been banned?

 

Mr. Mapes-

From the vaunted AGW mouthpiece, the NYTimes 5-OCT-04, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F40616F9355C0C768CDDA90994DC404482

New research questions uniqueness of recent warming

By ANDREW C. REVKIN, New York Times, 5 October 2004

A new analysis has challenged the accuracy of a climate timeline showing that recent global warming is unmatched for a thousand years. That timeline, generated by stitching together hints of past temperatures embedded in tree rings, corals, ice layers and other sources, is one strut supporting the widely accepted view that the current warm spell is being caused mainly by accumulating heat-trapping smokestack and tailpipe emissions.

The authors of the study, published in the current issue of the online journal ScienceExpress, did not dispute that a sharp warming was underway and that its pace could signal a human influence. But they said their test of the methods used to mesh recent temperature records with centuries-old evidence showed that past natural climate shifts were most likely sharply underestimated.

Many climate scientists credited the new study with pointing out how much uncertainty still surrounds efforts to turn nature's spotty, unwritten temperature records into a climate chronology.

An accompanying commentary in ScienceExpress, by Dr. Timothy J. Osborn and Dr. Keith R. Briffa, scientists at the University of East Anglia in Britain, said it implied that "the extent to which recent warming can be viewed as 'unusual' would need to be reassessed."

The significance of the new analysis comes partly because the record it challenges is a central icon in the debate over whether heat-trapping emissions should be curbed. The hallmark of the original method is a graph widely called the "hockey stick" because of its shape: a long, relatively unwavering line crossing the last millennium and then a sharp, upward-turning "blade" of warming over the last century.

But many climate sleuths acknowledged that while the broad climate trends were clear, much remained uncertain.
"I don't think anyone in the field would doubt we may be underestimating" some past climate shifts, said Dr. Raymond S. Bradley, a University of Massachusetts climate expert and co-author of Dr. Mann's. "For the general point von Storch is making," he added, "fair enough."

=====

Andrew C. Revkin gets the gist of von Storch's paper; Professors Osborne and Griffa also "get it" -- why even Professor Bradley himself (Mann's co-author) "gets it!" Take a look at that "HUGE out clause" Bradley acknowledges in the last paragraph. The question of the year is now, "do you get it?"

 

Nice read there I haven't seen that artical yet. So whats your view points on this global warming, cooling?? any thoughts??

 

1) My main view is AGW is unproven; and given a definitive paleoclimatic record containing much higher and lower temp cycles (4-5 cycles in the last 3000 years) than our "industrial revolution" suspected last 100 year example, is not likely to be.

2) Kyoto is prohibitively expensive, and an enormous job killer, as the requirement to revert to pre-1990 CO2 levels can do nothing but subsidize job-outsourcing to countries like China and India who have no limits. The U.S. is NOT the holdout on Kyoto -- EU & Russia (recent signee) are the only ones who signed up, as the 3rd world economies INVEST NOTHING in their endorsement. EU + Russia are IMO, the isolated ones!

3) With the production migration to no limit, high poluting economies of China and India -- CO2 emissions WILL GO UP (not down), as the productivity advantages and pollution controls of the US economy will be replaced by higher pollution per produced item in 3rd world economies without controls. This fact alone, is one Kyoto proponents fail to grasp in their blind quest to "protect the environment".

 

You're quite right, Climate person. Now we have have to wait for another proponent.

I wonder about "(4-5 cycles in the last 3000 years)". Of course there is the Medieval Warming Period and the Little Ice Age that survivied MBH, despite their vigourous attemps to let them dissapear. However I don't recall that any consistency in those cycles has been reported.

 

we're all going to die

 

maybe not 'all'. i have just finished watching a documentary about global warming. it was showing the unprecedented tornados and hurricanes that have hit the US...about a similar unprecednted hurricane in Brazil.....unp. floods in the UK.....and this MASSIVE collaps of the ice shelf in the Artic. the danger being that it's the shelves that keep the ice on land locked, and when THAt melts into the sae rising to really dangerous levels.....and it is getting closer

Meanwhile........the 'real'politic/corporates are using the spin of the 'Enemy'/'war on terrorism
so as to accrue more power forthemselves. as one expert said on the docu. using his finger and thumb togther....'terrosim is THAt much in comparison with this. THIS change of climate is THe most danger for humankind'

as we recently saw with Tsunami. we dont stand a chance.....

we all must stop 'gambling' that this is not a human-caused problem, and get activist, and speakout loudly and clearly to the blind and deaf that are denying it Is to do with us, and even Us right now on us

 

Tsunami caused by plate movement in the earth's crust, caused by global temperature change?!?! With a leap of intellect like that, you are undoubtedly ready to fall off the edge of what must be our flat world? Please step back from the edge.

 

Hi, Duendy – Aren’t you really sir David King, hiding behind that handle? Global Warming, a bigger threat than global warming? You have been taking the wrong medication, pal. Tell the families of the victims of 9-11 or 3-11 (Spain’s bombing) that terrorism is not a threat to their security. And please show me just one fatal victim of the so called “warming”.

I’ll bet a million dollars you have been watching Discovery Channel again. I told you so! Just keep on doing naughty things and you will get your brain ******** with misinformation!

Please make a visit to the U.S. National Hurricane Center’s website (search in Google) and see how they will show you that hurricanes, their number, frequency, wind speed and extension of such events have decreased since 1940. Don’t be afraid… they won’t bite you. Neither will do books about climatology, paleoclimatology; Earth’s climatic history, physics, etc.

What you’ll see now is the sneaky way in which the press will start playing “cooler” on the climate change, as Europeans and Japanese don’t have the slightest idea about what to do for <b>not implementing CO2 emissions restrictions and cuts on fossil fuel use</b>. They have been caught in their own trap! LOL! And now, as the USA, Russia, Australia, Brazil, China, India, and other industrialised countries won’t be cutting their emissions (and their industrial activity and competition in world markets will put Europe out of business), Europe and Japan are facing their demise as industrial powers – if they do what the Kyoto Treaty wants them to do.

We are really going to see a lot of backing up on the issue of global warming, and I’ll chip another million dollars in my bet that quite soon we’ll be hearing about “global cooling”. The resurrection of an old - and equally idiotic theory!

By the way, the Arctic has not ice shelfs. The ice there merely has between 1.5 to 4 meteres thickness. And, according to yesterday's Science magazine issue (Jan.14), a study presented in a wprld's climate Congress going on, says the thinning in the Arctic ice was due to <b>a natural phenomnenon: a change in the pattern of winds.</b>

 

read more @ BBC

 

David Sington is a shill for the AGW community, who is working overtime to excuse why their climate models all overestimated warming by 100-300%. Now we get this "solar output decreasing" article that contradicts:
http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2004/pressRelease20041028/index.html
and
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/sun_output_030320.html

First the excuse was, "The oceans are SWALLOWING up all the human-caused global warming -- so still be afraid, be very afraid!", and now it's this balogna. Even if true, it admits that natural solar dynamics beyond human-control DOMINATE the climate equation. The AGW zealots really need to make up their mind!

 

What another proof do they need for acknowleging the sun has overwhelming influence on Earth's climate? Since 1640 through 1710 there were NO sunspots (low sun energy output), and then the world sunk into the terrible Little Ice Age.

My prediction (based on Dr. Theodor Landscheidt's work): a Double Gleissberg minimum by the year 2030 will be of equal strenght of the Double Maunder, and Earth's climate will be the same as that of 1640-17150. So those of you that will be living then - move to Equatorial regions! Or freeze.

 

Actually I like when it is colder.

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

 

That's OK. You could live in Saskatchewan then. A friend just sent me an email he has given up trying to start his car this winter. They are having -35º C right now (and chilly winds do not help much to make him happy).

He said he would like to be again in the Amazon jungle, when we met teher for the first time, back in 1971. I hate cold weather, and love torrid climates. See what I have been doing in the heat of the jungle:

http://mitosyfraudes.8k.com/photoEng.html
and
http://mitosyfraudes.8k.com/photoEng-2.html

 

This is what my Canadian friend told yesterday:

"Hi Eduardo:

Even I can't believe how cold it's been here since the New Year. When you said you had a warm day of 38-39 degrees last week--that's what our temperatures have been, on the minus side!!! And with the wind chill, it's felt as cold as minus 50 degrees in many places in Saskatchewan. Some of the schools have been cancelled because it's too cold for the school buses to pick up kids living in the country.

I don't even try and start my car when it's this cold--it's not worth it. I don't have a garage, and in order to start it you have to plug-in the vehicle's block heater for hours. I only live three blocks from downtown, so I walk for whatever I need. But not many people are out walking either. I make sure I'm well dressed.

First I pull on my long woolen underwear, then pants, shirt, sweater, snowmobile boots, heavy winter parka with a snorkel hood which is trimmed with fur, insulated gloves--then and only then, I'm ready to meet the elements. I can hardly see where I'm going, but at least I'm not freezing. If I'm not facing a wind, I could walk for miles dressed like this (but of course I don't!) I'm not that crazy.

No wonder people living in warmer countries think Canada is only populated by eskimos. If they visited here in January, it would look like they were right.

Well I hope you appreciate how lucky you guys are these days. You could be living here.

Bye
Jack
------------------------

We are at the swimming pool right now - cold beer, nice bright sun ... Paradise

 

Got nothing so beautiful, but this is how it looks where I live now, a few days ago anyways (Riga/Latvia):
http://ambereye.piparmetra.net/categories.php?cat_id=5

 

Even a slight change in global temperature can change weather patterns, and when that happens EVERYTHING gets screwed up. I heard on the radio a while ago that some scientists believe we are undergoing a slow but massive extinction due to global warming. According to these scientist, flowers, etc. bloom before the insects are out to pollinate them, because insects are sensitive to light but plants respond to the temperature, or something like that. Sorry, I'm a little too lazy to research this right now.