Give up AC to save future generations?

Discussion in 'Science & Society' started by coberst, Dec 12, 2008.

  1. EntropyAlwaysWins TANSTAAFL. Registered Senior Member

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    Suffice it to say that automation makes large swathes of employment that the previous generation considered a staple of the economy entirely unnecessary.
    The internet is no exception to this and as the current generation become and the majority of the working age population their view of technology and how we interact with it will become and is becoming the dominant one.

    Your view is technology is firmly rooted in your own generation, which is fine, but it is illogical to expect that same perspective to be permanent.

    I can just imagine one day telling my children and grandchildren about the horrors of dial up speeds.

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  3. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    None of them are supporting evidence of the claim, which is that you can get this stuff to work for people who don't know and don't care how it works, so that they can do their jobs unaided by computer pros.
    You are a computer jockey by trade. Once you have access to your network, you are basically home free.
    All that stuff would be nice. It would be a good idea to have it - I have never seen a workplace that does, in practice. But even with all that, the essential qualifier - "by the user" - is missing.

    And that is where I think the whole scene hits a rock.
    Regardless of whose fault it is, as far as I can see almost everyone who does "knowledge work" with a computer in a corporation learns the essentials via oral transmission in the presence of someone who knew what to do, the same way guildmembers learned their trades in the Middle Ages, and depends on the continuing physical presence of computer professionals to keep their system functional. And you are talking about massively complicating that interface.
     
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  5. Baron Max Registered Senior Member

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    Who makes those "automation" machines?
    Who makes the steel used in those machines?
    Who digs the iron ore?
    Who ships the iron ore?
    Who makes those ships?
    Who loads and unloads the iron ore?
    Who services those "automation" machines?
    What do those "automation" machines make?
    And who buys what the "automation" machines make?
    And where do the buyers get the money to buy what the machines make?

    Supply and demand is not illogical, nor is it rooted in my own generation. It's a simple concept that's been the mainstay of civilization since man began to walk upright on the African plains. Man does not live by bread alone can just as easily be stated as ...Man does not live by technology alone. And yet you and Fraggle seem to feel that "information trading" is all that's needed. I just think "information" might not be very edible or nutritious.

    Baron Max
     
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  7. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Have not read much of thread but seems to have drifted from AC question. FR and the Baron now seem to be the conflict, and I think both have their points, but think both are missing the real problem.

    Yes, automation can grow our food, build our homes, entertain us, (even pick up the trash, etc.) with only a tiny fraction of the work force and is doing more so every year. Thus, more of the population will be concerned with "information processing"* but the social / economic concepts are stuck in the past. Just because few are needed to produce the consumed goods does not mean we have a social structure that can distribute them. We still have the idea expressed by John Smith in Jamestown (if memory serves me correctly. If not FR will fix it for me.) that “Those who don't work, don't eat.”

    In advanced societies, to a large and growing extent, the problem is not how to produce enough for all, but how to distribute this potential, without destruction of the incentives needed for it to be made.

    It will no doubt outrage the Baron but what seems to be lacking is not potential productive capacity, but more welfare “free loaders.”

    For most of man's history there was a scarcity of goods, even great hunger for many; but as Dorothy of OZ said: "We are not in Kansas anymore."
    We are in a land of potential abundance and do not know how to "spread it around" for social stability.
    --------------
    *Many living in virtual worlds (sciforums included) or wasting their time in role playing games, etc. - many ways now exist to "kill the surplus time." I think life-long education/ learning can help do that too. I think it is part of human nature to want to feel that we are "contributors" not "leaches" in our social structures. I delude myself into justifying time spent here at sciforums by trying to correct errors (nonsense, I usually call them) when I can and think that is a "contribution"; but in truth sciforums etc. for most other entertainment IT is just a pointless game, to fill in surplus time.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 16, 2008
  8. Baron Max Registered Senior Member

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    Distribution of food and goods? No problem, Billy, just have all those "automation" machines do it.

    Spreda it around? Just have those "automation" machines spread it around. No problem, Billy. Machines plant it, machines grow it, machines harvest it, and machines distribute it equally to all.

    I think the Romans had the gladitorial games to entertain those free-loaders and keep them occupied. We can do the same having automation machines fight each other in huge, free arenas for the people's entertainment.

    As long as the machines provide the essentials of life for the people, free of charge or labor, everything will be just wonderful ....just like the Land of Oz.

    Baron Max
     
  9. cosmictraveler Be kind to yourself always. Valued Senior Member

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    Don't forget that over 80 percent of the worlds population doesn't have electricity or clean potable water AS YET.
     
  10. Baron Max Registered Senior Member

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    We'll just let those "automation" machines take care of that minor little detail. All we need to do is have those "information traders" sell some additional information, then they'll have enough money to build more of those "automation" machines. See? No problemo, Cosmic.

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    Baron Max
     
  11. cosmictraveler Be kind to yourself always. Valued Senior Member

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    Soon only a handful of people will have enough money to buy food let alone electronic gizzmos. :shrug:
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2008
  12. Baron Max Registered Senior Member

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    No, that can't be! We'll just have those "automation" machines give out the food and goods free of charge. Those people who work from the luxury of their homes via computer and Internet would be happy to trade some more "information" so as to pay for it. No problemo, Cosmic.

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    Baron Max
     
  13. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    You may well be right. - That was my point. The real problem is not lack of productive potential, but inadequate social/economic structures.
     
  14. Fraggle Rocker Staff Member

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    Just exactly how old are you and where have you been living? Your CD and DVD collection is full of "information," although as I said I hate this standardized definition of the word because it is confusing. If your car is newer than my 1980 model, it has a computer that controls the ignition, fuel flow, ABS, climate control and myriad other operations, and all of that software is "information." You can say the same for half the appliances in your house. The elevators, security and other infrastructure in your office building are similarly controlled by computers. So are airplanes and airports. Factories are full of IT. I get the impression you aren't even aware of the number of "knowledge workers" who are employed just writing software, or if you are, in your usual gruff way, you dismiss them as parasites even though the U.S. economy would collapse a la "Dark Angel" without them. (I'm sure you thought the Y2K scare was all over nothing. Our bank's mortgage statements, our electric bills, and the expiration dates on our diet soda cans weren't correct until 2001. All of us old Cobol programmers did triage and spent 1999 frantically remediating the most critical systems, so the bank's ATMs, the power company's computer-controlled generators, and the expiration date labelers for insulin actually did work right.)

    Add to that the number of knowledge workers who work with the information that's manipulated by the software, and the picture starts to become clear. Why do you think automation continues to reduce the amount of human labor necessary to complete the tasks of the industrial era? This is no longer done with servomotors. It's all software and data files.

    But the real explosion of IT and knowledge work is in what used to be called the discretionary income sector. Entertainment and other types of recreation have become digitized. I'm sure you think Pong is the state of the art in digital entertainment and you have no idea what was going on in the three-part South Park episode about World of Warcraft. (You surely watch South Park, since Parker and Stone obviously modeled Eric Cartman after you.) It's not just for the young. I know three highly disabled retired people who LIVE on the internet. One is a master in a MOMRPG and spends about twelve hours a day on it. Another is more of a producer than a consumer, and does research and sends daily reports on historical events to a number of companies that pay him for it. The third is the gatekeeper for five generations of his family. (My family, he's a cousin I never knew about until he tracked me down on the internet.)
    We all consume those goods, as I just explained.
    Your information is way out of date. They're all immigrating to the USA and doing it here now. Inspire your great-grandchildren to do better in school than their parents, and maybe they'll be able to do those jobs too. We invented IT and we haven't quite lost our grip on the market yet the way we did on autos. Still, IT is a world market and the entire world will participate in both production and consumption. Estonia is becoming a real powerhouse in software development, but knowledge work is by no means limited to software development. I can see the traditionally compulsive recordkeepers in England becoming champions of data collection and distribution. And there's always music and art, and probably a hundred new kinds of stuff that we haven't imagined yet, just as medieval people couldn't have imagined most of the things we expend our labor and money on today.
    Balderdash. They said the same thing about every new technology. I have three friends in their 80s who mastered the internet and a large variety of software. Still, we obviously have to making this stuff more user-friendly. That's my job: bring real engineering principles to software.
    Actually these days I'm a writer. I do exactly the same thing on the clock that I'm doing right now.
    You, or probably the company you work for, are waaaay out of date. Besides, "knowledge work" is not just specifically using a corporate MIS database. Every time you look something up on the internet, or even on Animal Planet or the History Channel, you're a consumer of information, and if you use that information in your work or family you're probably also producing information. Don't get locked into the Industrial Era model of "work" taking place in an "office" and "home" being the place where you don't "work." That's what telecommuting is all about.
    There is a certain sense of the medieval guild craft in IT, which is why I refuse to call it "software engineering." But that's changing. And this is where the foreign professionals are pushing us. They believe in the CMM(I) and the PMBOK. Once again, America needs to catch up or get out of the way.
    The software/software interface, to be sure. But not the human/computer interface. Compare OS/X to Windows, then compare Windows to DOS, then microcomputers to any legacy mainframe system.
    Do you really not keep up? Pick almost any industrial operation and you'll find that the number of humans required to do hands-on work has been steadily dropping. Even mining and farming.
    As I noted earlier, they operate most of the apparati you own, from your coffeemaker to your car. Everything from your coffeemaker to your car provide far more service than their predecessors fifty years ago, and the services they provide are more accurate and convenient. But industrial processes are also the beneficiaries of "automation machines," or, as everyone else in the 21st century calls them, "computers."
    Some of them direct industrial processes that end up "making" coal and flour. But an increasing number "make" information, which we all buy, either as information, such as research articles, statistical tables and music CDs, or as process contol, such as the aforementioned software in your car or the programming in my electronic piano.
    We're all producers and we get paid for it.
    Nonetheless the world of humans and its economic model has gone through three Paradigm Shifts since the advent of bipedal walking: agriculture and permanent settlements; city-building; and industry.
    Interesting comparison, since the balance of bread to technology made a quantum jump in each of those Paradigm Shifts. In the Mesolithic Era the "economy" was entirely about food, and we didn't even have bread yet.

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    Most of the technology of toolmaking was part of the food "industry," spears and arrows, with a tiny portion of it going into things like making clothes and inventing medicines. After the Agricultural Revolution there was suddenly a surplus of food so a measurable amount of capital (surplus resources not needed for food production) was diverted to other "markets," such as housing, furniture, brewing, and a bit of arts and entertainment. The Dawn of Civilization created an even greater surplus so people could become full-time professional teachers, musicians, priests, etc. The Industrial Revolution swung the balance the other way, and today far less than half of workers in the developed countries have anything to do with food production or distribution.

    Most of what we have today--cars, tv sets, guitars, electric furnaces, skis, lawnmowers--are things that Max's forebears would have said, "Pish tush, no one will ever have enough money to support a big market in those things." They were wrong.
    You get a big kick out of pretending to be dense. We'll always need food production, but the portion of the workforce employed in it will continue to fall. Virtually everything else we spend money on is something about which some prehistoric Max once said, "Our civilization can't afford that, we need to put all of our labor into food production." And "information trading" is a naive term to encompass everything from the development of software to the design of computerized machinery to the planning of driverless highways to the creation of entire new databases to the explosion of art, music and MOMRPGs on the internet.
    Every Paradigm Shift ushered in a new economic model. In a hunter-gatherer culture, all the members of the small "tribe" were extended family members who did not need to keep accounts of who did what for whom. The technology of agricultural villages populated by multiple families required at least rudimentary unwritten accounting so that no one was allowed to be a deadbeat. The technology of cities populated by total strangers required real accounting (thus the invention of writing), but also economic planning to manage a significant surplus of capital wisely (thus the invention of money). Industry brought about the birth of economics as a discipline, with the supply/demand model and the formal concept of capitalism, banking, incorporation and stocks, and an explosion of contracts and business laws.

    Everything we "know" about economics is a product of the Industrial Revolution. Before that, 98% of life was about food for 98% of the population and "economics" was so simple it didn't have a name. After the Information Revolution, people will think the same about us. "How quaint, for 98% of them, 98% of life was about physical products like food, fuel and machinery!"
    That's been true since long before the Industrial Revolution. Our ancestors practiced slavery--a disincentive if ever there was one--for thousands of years. As recently as the 19th century, tens of millions of people believed that slave labor could power a modern economy.
    You've completely missed the Paradigm Shift if you think SciForums does not add value to the economy. Sure we get frivolous, but a significant amount of individual tertiary and quaternary scholarship goes on here. This type of research and learning, including the arguments that eventually help the members sort out the truth, makes everyone a better citizen and better citizens give back to civilization what it needs, in compensation for what they receive from it. The cost of what we get from civilization continues to fall as civilization becomes more automated, so we can spend more of our time being entertained, but if each of us occasionally helps someone else find their way, we've done our part.

    Remember that in the post-industrial economy the emphasis is no longer on mass production. My cousin who organizes the family records and the family reunions is doing the job of a genealogist and a travel agent. People who post funny videos on YouTube that are viewed by only a hundred people are doing the job of entertainers. Every time we help some befuddled young member figure out his math homework, we're doing the work of tutors. All of these are contributors to the economy.

    Toffler even talks about the resurgence of what he calls "prosumers," people who make things for themselves. After all, in the not-too-distant past, most of what people had were things they produced for themselves. In the Industrial Era we got used to buying everything at Sears and Safeway, but now look at all the things we make for ourselves with our power tools, our sewing machines, our hobby equipment, our TiVos and our iPods. Not to mention the wealth of perfectly organized data on our computers.

    Perhaps there won't be a lot of need for the exchange of money, as the things we make for ourselves become a larger portion of our shopping basket, and the prices of the other things in that basket (plus the occasional material or tool needed for "prosuming") keep falling because of automation. (And, to get back to my original point, because of a drastically decreased need to travel anywhere except for pleasure.)

    Keep in mind that before the Industrial Revolution, many people lived their entire lives without ever having a significant quantity of money, because there just wasn't that much to spend it on.
    No, the delusion is what you said last. You really are contributing to civilization by answering questions and having arguments. People get paid millions of dollars for doing that on TV and many of them aren't any better at it than we are.
    Wrong. Dead wrong. You're stuck in the economic model of the Industrial Era. A few hundred years ago, who could have foreseen making money by investing in the "stock" of a profitable "company"--whatever those words mean? Or by teaching the children of farmers to read and write? Or by practicing medicine on dogs and cats? We have no idea what the economy of the Information Era will look like.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2008
  15. Baron Max Registered Senior Member

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    Absolutely. And I understand that fully. But you'll notice that there is ultimately a product and an ultimate consumer ...who has the money to buy that/those products. And yet you've been trying to tell me that everyone will be "working" at home via their computer, and that there'll be no factories making consumer products!

    But see, from all of your examples, there are consumers who buy those products. Now, for the really kicker in your little IT world ....where did those consumers get the money to buy that IT product?

    Well, Fraggle, for your sake, I hope that "human labor" keeps working, 'cause when he's gone, you ain't got no one to buy your IT.

    Huh? So there's nothing that moves? Software and data files can't move food or products along on a conveyor belt, nor make the welding machines move into proper position to weld a product. Servomotors, Fraggle!

    Fraggle, I must say, honestly, that I think "Star Trek" tv shows and movies have affected your mental grasp on how things really are in the world. I don't think they've perfected the "replicators" just yet ...which seems what you're talking about ...making something from nothing!

    Sorry, Fraggle, but your dreams of no more human workers is just too far out in fairy tale land for me .....and all those silly words you use won't make it any more real. You're getting dangerously close to the fairy tale worlds of Likluke!

    Baron Max
     
  16. spidergoat pubic diorama Valued Senior Member

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    Baron is quite right in this case. Working from home is fine, but it is predicated on a working economy, it's parasitic. It remains to be seen if it can be the basis of an economy as a primary activity. I highly doubt it. It's like the proposal that we can extract all the energy we need from garbage. While we can get some from it, we can't have an economy based on processing garbage, because we would soon run out of garbage.
     
  17. Fraggle Rocker Staff Member

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    No one seems to notice the trend over the last eleven thousand years of a steadily shortening work week. Our Neolithic ancestors worked really hard for 90-100 hours. Most of us spend 40 hours in an office, but we spend a lot of that time not really working. (Farmers don't get to goof off.) Some countries already have a 32-hour week. And we're all a lot wealthier than our ancestors in any era.

    The reason for this progress is that there is simply less work to be done. We keep improving our technology so more of it runs itself. Who's to say that in 150 years our descendants won't be working a ten-hour week? Two hours a day and none on weekends? And even wealthier than us?

    If there really is less work to be done, which we all seem to be predicting, and there's plenty of food, consumer goods and virtual-world realities to go around with minimal human labor, who's going to be the fool to demand that he spends half his life working, rather than sharing the work?

    Sure, there are compulsive workaholics among us who aren't satisfied unless they're busy. But I see more and more of them getting into MOMRPGs like Second Life, where they can run their own business or build an entire city. One of my disabled friends was a clothing designer, and now he makes spectacular clothes for everyone in his virtual city. Instead of being the weirdo who stays late at the office every night, he's one of the most beloved people in his virtual community.
     
  18. EntropyAlwaysWins TANSTAAFL. Registered Senior Member

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    I'm not argueing that Supply and Demand is illogical, quite the contrary in fact.

    What I am saying is that as technology progresses it takes less people to do more work then could previously be achieved, technology allows production to become more efficient and in many cases become so efficient that you can effectively take humans out of the loop altogether.

    As Fraggle was saying, you work less then your grand parents did but I'm guessing you make more money than they did.
     
  19. Baron Max Registered Senior Member

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    23,053
    Who makes those "automation" machines?
    Who makes the steel used in those machines?
    Who digs the iron ore?
    Who ships the iron ore?
    Who makes those ships?
    Who loads and unloads the iron ore?
    Who services those "automation" machines?
    What do those "automation" machines make?
    And who buys what the "automation" machines make?
    And where do the buyers get the money to buy what the machines make?

    Building homes and condos, providing food and utilities is essential to living even if no one works.
    Who buildings those homes?
    Who grows the food?
    Who cuts the trees to make the lumber?
    Who digs the clay to make bricks?
    Who makes the cement for concrete?
    Who digs the sand and gravel for the concrete?
    How is all of that shipped to where it's needed?
    Who builds the machines on which stuff is shipped?
    Who builds and maintains the roads/rails on which stuff is shipped?
    Who processes the raw food into edible products?
    Who raises the cattle?
    Who butchers the cattle for the meat?
    How is all that meat shipped to the consumers who are lying around on their asses doing nothing but playing on their computers?
    How is that meat distributed to the consumers?
    Who maintains the machines that do all the work?
    Who maintains the utility lines and pipes?
    Who works in the sewers when there's problems?
    Who works in the power plants to make sure that the nukes don't go 'BOOM'?
    Where does the uranium come from to make fuel for the generators?
    And the list goes on and on.

    "Second Life"? What's that? ...a computer game? How much money does he make playing on his computer and pretending to make clothes? Who buys his pretend clothes?

    Fraggle, I think you're being seduced by some computerized "world" where everything is done with the flick of a button. Fraggle, that life is only possible when one already has the money to pay for everything he needs in the REAL world. The "pretend world" is for entertainment.

    You've lost sight of the real world, Fraggle. Perhaps you should get some professional help.

    Baron Max
     
  20. Baron Max Registered Senior Member

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    23,053
    Who makes the machines that do the work?
    Where did the steel come from to make the machines?
    How was that iron ore processed into steel?
    How was the iron ore shipped?
    Who built the ships?

    And the list goes on and on. Humans aren't taken OUT of the equation, they're just transferred to other types of work.

    People here need to take a lot closer look at the real world around them. Who bakes the bread? Who delivers the food? Who cleans up the garbage?

    Baron Max
     
  21. frame Registered Member

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    ... I don't get it?
    You all seemed so concerned quick little patch fixes and such. No AC? No electricity?
    the whole problem of global warming and over dependence on electricity, I think, stems from ignorance. I see you guys talking about the "youngster generation", and how they are adapting. Well, you can teach a dog to speak, but all the dog understands is that he's rewarded for doing it.
    Basically
    I think that right now "green, sustainable energy" are just trendy. People see a problem, and immediatley they just try to come up with all these little solutions, maybe hoping they will make a difference. But it won't if the world keeps going like it does.
    I am 17, a senior in high school.
    The kids I'm surrounded with are extremely under-educated on just about everything.
    I think you should be taking your minds OFF these quick fixes and turn more towards EDUCATING THE YOUTH.
    I personally know hundreds of people (maybe that's a little bit of an exaggeration) that voted for Obama just because he was the fad.
    We can't have that happening.
    We need to make sure that the youth knows EXACTLY what their deciding on.
    American companies consumed with the prospect of riches still market to us all these great things, Like ipods, gameboys, sodas, basically anything a normal teenager likes.
    But they're not telling us how those things come about, how they work, or waht happens when you're done with them.
    It seems that my generation is passive to anything that happens beyond their immediate life. They throw a bottle into a river, thinking nothign of it.
    They leave garbage on tables at parks, expecting a park custodian to come and clean it.
    They smoke ciggarettes like Civil War veterans and dont think twice about the reprecussions. America has catered to an extravagent affordable life, which seems to make children think they're better than the world, and the world is working just for them,
    otherwise they would know about the consequences of what is happening.

    If anything, attention needs to be turned towards the school system, because that is where our future starts, and we need to enlighten these children on the facts of life, or they're gonna grow up to sue you just because you stepped on THEIR grass.



    but then im probably wrong in thinking so.
     
  22. Baron Max Registered Senior Member

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    23,053
    And what is that, exactly? And who is to decide what's important?

    Facts of life? What are they? And who decides what to "enlighten" these little bastards about?

    Or are you thinking that YOU are the "One" to lead humanity out of the dark ages and into "enlightenment"?

    Baron Max
     
  23. frame Registered Member

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    10
    Baron, I think you have gotten a very wrong impression of me.
    I by no means place myself above anyone, and I know that in no way I can influence anyone.
    I'm just saying that we need to make sure these children know the FACTS.
    FACTS.
    FACTS
    ARE
    FACTS.
    Say for instance
    My school was handing out Anti-Marijuana Pamphlets.
    In these pamphlets, marijuana was shot down and it was full of only myths and no real facts at all.
    Propaganda, basically.
    So now there's all these kids
    Runnning around
    "OMG MARIJUANA KILLS YOUR BRAIN CELLS"
    when in fact
    marijuana has been shown help stiumlate the growth of NEW brain cells
    making it a possible treatment for ALZHEIMERS.

    Now, do you think it's right that people can tell these kids all these myths but no facts?

    that's all I'm saying.
    If we would have known CFC's would kill our planet, we wouldn't have used them.
     

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