Dare you buy a BP share?

How low does the BP share price have to go before you buy?
I am getting tempted, but I am really waiting for another Obamarant of maniacal proportions.
According to some calculations the value of the US assets has already fallen to zero, so the shares are worth buying even if the US arm of BP files for bankruptcy.
Although the oil leak figures sound alarming, the volume of the Gulf of Mexico is 640,000,000,000,000,000 gallons. Do you own math!
What do you think, guys?

 

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There are two faces to the stock market, the rational portion or face and the irrational portion or face. And these days it is the irrational market that has been calling the shots in the market. The stock market, for the moment, is not trading on fundamentals. It is trading on headlines. For example, this afternoon Moodys downgraded Greek debt to junk status this afternoon and the market fell apart.
..wow shocking news...not.

It's not like the news was something suprising or unexpected. S&P and down graded Greek debt to junk status a month ago. But all of the sudden we go from an an up 1 percent market to a minus market.

So in this market you can be as rational as you may want to be and it won't matter one bit. The irrational folk are in control of this market, and it is hard to make sense of irrational behavior.

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But I think BP stock is going to have trouble until two things happen:

- we can see some clarity around its dividend

- they get the leaking oil well under control

Until those two things happen I would not touch the stock with a 10 foot pole, as we say here in the states. I think the stock is going to continue to bleed until we see those two things happening.

And I am thinking that it is going to be another month or so at the earliest, before we get clarification on those two issues. That being the case, I would not be suprised to see BP trading in the mid teens before this over. In the low to mid teens, I would be a buyer.

 

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Timing, timing, timing

If BP ceases to exist as an independent business entity because of this disaster, I have no problem with that. As to investing, the timing depends entirely on how one views that possibility, and when the final collapse comes about.

As a moral question, I see it in the following terms: Do I trust BP to use my investment money to accomplish the right things?

And, frankly, no, I don't. Had I the money to invest in BP, I would try to time it to the bottom of the cycle, and profit as much as possible from the rebound, buyout, or whatever else might happen. You know, complex market dynamics and all that.

But, then, I'm, inclined against investing in the company for moral purposes. I'm just not cynical enough in my greed.

Additionally, I've been hearing the British side of the story for the last little while, and it's rather quite interesting. Apparently, £1 of every £7 in British pension funds comes from BP investments. While the company's collapse would spell certain trouble in the loss of nearly 14.3% of pension funds, how can I pretend that a lack of diversity in various investment portfolios justifies the kind of unethical irresponsibility that led to this disaster?

And, of course, the Tories are appalled at the idea that BP should be held responsible for its actions. Some things don't change when you cross the Pond. That is, liberals are still ineffectual, and conservatives are still disgusting.

Oh, right, the question at hand. Yeah, it comes down to your ethical outlook and how well you can read the financial tea leaves. Either way, good luck.

 

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Minority stockholders have little if any influence on corporate behavior. And since a minority stockholder has no influence in corporate decision making, I see no moral conflicts in taking minority positions in companies like BP. If my stockowner ship in a given company could influence corporate behavior, then I would have to assume the mantle of moral responsibility...in my mind anyway.

 

I'm waiting for the stock to drop some more, then I'll snatch some up. It's BP people. It'll survive. And thrive.

~String

 

You people seriously have no souls.

 

Naw, I sold out 3 000 000 worth of shares, the day the oil leak started.

I am dumping most of the families shares of oil companies, and re investing it in Renewable energy firms, thats the future peeps, buy b4 there too expensive.

 

Do you even own stocks in any company?

BASF (a German company) supplied the Nazi's some of the "stuff" used top gas Jews. IBM supplied pre-war Germany with technical machines. The Mitsubishi companies supplied wartime Japan with--well--everything, including the dreaded Zero. RioTinto used slave labor in the past. Dupont destroyed the river portrayed in "A River Runs Through It". Carrefour was caught using Chinese "prison" (slave) laborers contracted to supply their cloths in the 80's.

Every company that's been around more than fifty years has engaged in some nasty shit. It's part of life. Either you invest in companies with an eye for profits, or you're an idiot dumping your money into a hole in the ground. If you prefer the latter method, I'll give you my address, I'll take it off your hands.

BP's CEO and executive management are scumbags. But what about the rest of their many thousands of hard working employees? Do you know that BP is one of the largest employers in the Gulf states? Should we throw all of them, and their children into the streets? I would hope not. Those responsible, should be held responsible and the rest of the HUMAN BEINGS who had nothing to do with this should not have their jobs lost and lives destroyed by petty revenge against BP.

~String

 

The Gulf of Mexico fields are unstable, but the Iraq oil fields are being brought up to 10,000,000 bbl a day production ... by BP ... so that is where the money is.

 

A little off topic.

 

im sorry string but FUCK BP they should rottin hell, i dont think people realize how much of an effect this oil spill will have an exxon valdese size oil spill ever 5-7 days and the hundreds of millions of fish that are going to die because of this.. if they dont cap it off in the near future i wouldnt be suppriesed if everything in the gulf died

 

your not taking into effect the side effects of the oil particulates draining the water of oxygen creating MASSIVE dead zones that alot of watter but if a fish swims into a deadzone and doesnt turn around = dead fish

 

BP's collegues are throwing them to the wolves today in Congressional hearings...as expected. They are all claiming to be pure as new fallen snow while it is the evil BP that is mucking things up. They are all saying, BP is the bad actor...not they.

 

I did say in the OP, "Do your own math!"
To anyone who took up this invitation: were you surprised?
By the time the leak has stopped, something like 64 million gallons of oil are likely to have polluted the Gulf. At any rate, it will be closer to that figure than ten times more or ten times less. In the OP I gave a figure for the volume of seawater in the Gulf (but you can do your own research).
Now I know the leak is localised, and it is not reasonable to compare the volume of the leak with the volume of the Gulf, so when you have made that calculation, I suggest you apply a factor of (say) ten.
But make it one hundred if you want.
The scale-of-dilution figure obtained is quite interesting, isn't it?
No surprise that the media have vastly exaggerated the scale of the disaster, and that after so many days the shores of the Gulf are not actually a foot deep in oil as you were expecting! (Remember how in the early reporting of 9/11, ten to twenty thousand were dead?)
When the share price reaches $26, I shall start buying.

 

There is such a thing called "guilt by association" - so you don't have to let your conscience weigh you down too much by boycotting them.

 

Please tell if the volume of your buy order is like soullust claimed in post 7. If it is, I will put a more modest buy order in at $26.26 (I often have GTC bottom fishing orders in with strange, easy to remember, prices as they may stand for months - one did get touched off during the "flash crash" - Thus I will be a little sorry to see them put in the new circuit breaker.)

 

My records show that I sold £75,750-worth of BP shares on St Patrick's Day (at a nice profit).
I would probably use about a third of that for my initial dip into the market.

 

Assuming you did buy alternative energy stocks instead of oil stocks, I think you are being very premature and will regret it....and proably not be very popular at family get togethers.

 

Just sick of there over pricing the shit out of oil.

I seen the book's for Pan-west, sun crude, husky energy, Petro Canada, Cnrl, etc.

Us as the People, of the Northern world are getting fucking screwed dude.

Oil Companies are making, Huge Profits off us, while decreasing the value of our monies more then the Banks, and our retarded Governments alone.

That and I did my Home work, Most Companies I invested in were Canadian Federal invested, Renewable energy firms, traded on the TSX.

(Our Country has gone Renewable Energy ape shit the last ten years.)

 

There are thousands of Americans who depend on BP for jobs. They are one of the largest employers in the gulf states. Their gas stations are almost all owned by mom-and-pop franchisees. Sorry, I don't buy throwing thousands of Americans out of work because of the shit in the gulf. Stick it to the executives. Put them on trial. Fine the company.

~String