China's Emergence As A Global Superpower

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Saint, Nov 19, 2005.

  1. thinking Banned Banned

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    yes , well maybe , what China lacks though is Natural resourses

    hence the search for companies that do , in other countries
     
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  3. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    I concur with most of your POV, but:
    I agree pollution is like to get worse before it gets better, but think the CCP is already concerned. I think they understand that capital invested in high pollution systems when alternatives are available is foolish and more costly in the long run. Probable disapproval of company buying GM's Hummer is a recent small example. (See post 818 - Chinese People’s Daily would not have note that pollution source without some basis as CCP now allowing the purchase would reflect badly on the CCP.) More importantly China is rapidly developing hydro power and building a new nuclear power plant about every month. They are starting to build (14 as I recall) super-critical steam coal-fired plants, which will very significantly reduce coal use per KWh generated. They lead the world in electric cars on the road and as a percentage of the fleet; they are far in advanced of the rest of the world. BYD is to make 400,000 of them in 2009 and started production in 2008. See it compared to GM volt and Forbe's link backing up the 400,000 etc. numbers at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2290857&postcount=146

    I think human nature, with its self interest greed, is quite universal but China does seem to be doing as well as any in construct the "harmonious society." When pollution is really bad, improving it is a common goal even if that costs more money. I am old enough to remember Pittsburg PA in 1950. The part of down town where two rivers come together is now a park, I think, called the golden triangle. Pittsburg was in that era and before the steel capital of the USA. On a windless day the smog was so bad you could not see much across a wide street. I think clean water will be more of a problem for China than air pollution in the long run, if that is not already the case.

    I never thought about where the Tamil Tigers weapons came from and have no reason to doubt your POV, except I note the nearby state of India is full of Tamils, perhaps they helped too?

    Perhaps China has studied US methods of control in South and Central America until about 25 years ago? In US coordinated multi-nation "Operation Condor" ~50,000 left leaning South Americans were killed or "disappeared." (Wiki has more on it.) Fortunately, for first time the US government, under Obama, seems to be siding with the elected government and not the rich/military alliance in Honduras. Even though the US has been their only source of weapons for years and has ~50 military advisors there now.

    I don't think the part about Burma is correct as China get oil and gas from them in exchange for weapons. India too looks the other way for the same energy reasons.

    I agree, but I think Russia and China are natural partners. The 48 inch oil pipeline from Russia's oil fields is now at the Chinese border. China will finish it internal section some time in 2010. When China's recent land reforms take full effect, China may supply some agricultural products to Russia, if not doing so already.

    It will also be very interesting to watch China's energy related activities in its western (mainly Moslem) provinces, but hard to do. I forget the size of the pipeline now headed there, but it is more than 1000 miles long. Geologically that mountainous region is very Faulted (good oil traps) and quite similar to the oil fields of Iran. Western companies never explored it as it has too many political problems and too far from any port. China pretty much ignored it too until a little more than a decade ago. Now they are cracking down hard on the Moslem's desires for at least local autonomy. Sending many troops and some settlers into the region too. - I think energy is the reason for their recent interest in the area.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 30, 2009
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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Here is a graph of quarter by quarter changes in Chinese GDP. Note ever quarter was better than the prior one.

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    From:http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14041646 As is "balancing act" photo below.

    Or see link below for specific examples of Chinese market growth and their Q3,2009 GDP with 8.1% growth as forecasted by an average of 16 economist Bloomberg hired. - See: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2312292&postcount=167

    Those 16 economists also project it will again be double digit GDP growth in about a year; but note even if the graph's ~15% Q on Q is only held constant for two more quarters the current 8.1% growth rate becomes 10.7% GDP growth by end of1Q of 2010.

    It would be strange that the graph's steeply rising curve suddenly turned horizontal to hold at 15%, would it not?

    The Chinese are good at balancing acts. - Probably can balance the need for economic stimulation with the need to avoid inflation.
    Thus I think that China will have "DOUBLE DIGIT" GDP growth by end of this year and US will still have a shrinking economy.

    Why The Economist started the article of link above with this amazing photo:

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    Each lady has 10 spinning plates in the air and there are at least seven ladies (only see some of the plates of the right and left most ladies). That is at least 70 plates simultaneously spinning on top of long sticks! The Chinese are amazing people with a long (more than ten times longer than the US) high level culture - may not have the same values as the US society* but certainly is not inferior in its current concern for the poor or the environment. See my recent post in the nuclear energy thread for facts about their environmental concerns at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2312283&postcount=39

    I note that they now have real problems with pollution of both air and water, but not as bad as the US had when at a similar stage in its economic development. I can recall when what is now the "golden triangle park"** in Pittsburg had steel industry air pollution so bad that on a windless day one could barely see across a wide street.
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    * To counter US critism about lack of freedoms in China etc., Chinese student's text books have photos showing the homeless people sleeping on the streets in NYC etc. For them "freedom" is much more about having a full stomach and place to sleep than the right to openly tell the government to go to hell.

    **Called that years ago, at least after the air pollution was cleaned up, as it is where the two main rivers join at the tip of the triangle. I do not know it even exists now. Sao Paulo is also cleaning up the river that flows thur the city. A few tough fish have even been caught in it recently - two or more years ago nothing could live in it. All societies go thru this high pollution stage as they quickly industralize. In London about 150+ years ago the coal smoke was so bad that a species of white moths quiclky evolved to become dark gray or black as everything left outside was soon black with soot. (All the original white ones were quickly eaten by birds etc.)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 17, 2009
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  7. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    "China’s stock market may surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest by value in three years as state- owned companies sell new shares and the nation’s 1.4 billion people put more of their money into equities, Mark Mobius said.

    “The Chinese population is just dipping its toe into equities and they’ve got a long way to go,” Mobius, who oversees about $25 billion of emerging-market assets as executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London. ..."

    From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4.VQEZdQ__M
     
  8. Baron Max Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,053
    And they may not!

    I love how people throw "may" and "might" and "could" and such words out and around, .....then others take them as positive statements of fact.

    Baron Max
     
  9. wesmorris Nerd Overlord - we(s):1 of N Valued Senior Member

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    mr. t, you're quite the student sir. regardless of the eventual outcome i'm impressed with your enthusiasm and apparently in-depth study of the topic.

    i've probably said it before, but I think at some point - all bets are off, as techological advance will continue to change the game. My guess is that the "singularity" concept of AI will actually occur at least in some form (abundant ultra-cheap energy, AI, blah blah, so many possibilities). as such, the notion of "over-taking" itself will likely change.

    well, i do dare to dream (maybe a nightmare). perhaps I just like thinking that way because the notion of "power" implied by "over-taking" sort of grosses me out.

    cultured meat anyone?
     
  10. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, I have noticed that too. It seems be very common practice when predicting the future. I wonder why? Surely we know the future, don't you think? :shrug:
     
  11. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    "In China, however, there’s a very different story ... an emerging middle class of 330 million people ... Chinese consumers are coming into their own. With savings that are as much as 35% of earned income and a desire to have what we have, goods are flying off of store shelves. The expected increase in Chinese consumer spending in 2009 is greater than the forecasted ... in the United States, Japan and the Eurozone combined.

    China’s property markets are rising again, and home values are increasing as well. Automobile sales, always a litmus test for consumer health, are up 48% from last year and are accelerating so rapidly that China is already* supplanting the United States as the world’s largest car market - a full three years ahead of my projections. "

    From: http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/07/24/china-global-rebound/
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    * AFAIK monthly sales in China were greater than in the US every Month thus far in 2009 and the gap is growing wider.
     
  12. Tyler Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    4,888
    Billy T... I apologize for not responding to your message. A friend and I went traveling near Tibet and fell down a waterfall late one evening on a mountain. We were both quite injured and were out of action for a while. I'll have time to write back to you in a week or so.

    Hope all is well.
     
  13. Tyler Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    4,888
    Perhaps you're right to suggest the Chinese can pull themselves out of polluted mess, but I don't see it happening. I read an interesting paper recently on why Chinese and Western travel habits in natural environments differ so much. As you may know (certainly know if you've been to China!), Chinese 'hiking' trips or visits to natural environments largely consist of driving cars around forests and mountains, taking staircases if they're available and staying in expensive hotels with modern appliances in the most backward of mountain towns. (If you want to escape Chinese tourists, just go to a town with no modern hotels!) The major explanation for why the Chinese ruin all their most beautiful landscapes with massive modern installations offered in the paper was that the Chinese and Western folk view nature in a fundamentally different way; Western philosophy views man and nature as seperate; Chinese view the two as part of the same. The paper argued that this led Westerners to have an inclination towards a sort of reverence for nature that implies travel into nature means a competition between wild and man. The Chinese view, on the other hand, produces a sort of acceptance that anything man does is natural and man's benefit is not distinct from nature's benefit. I think this overlooks the fact that the Chinese are just excited to be wealthy and so want to do everything money can buy right now, but it's an interesting theory and does seem to have backing in the general not-giving-a-shit attitude the citizens have towards nature.
    Well, energy and general desire to control their territory.
     
  14. kmguru Staff Member

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    11,757
    And territory of other boarder countries like India's Arunachal Province....what is mine is mine, what is yours is also mine....
     
  15. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    On Chinese respect for nature:
    Yes it differs from US destruction of the near city environment with expanding suburban sprawl which destroyed local food supply to make the average item on your table travel about 2000 miles to get there (often much more as in grapes from South Africa in US winter or Israeli oranges or Norwegian cod and salmon, or French and Chilean wine, etc.) Fortunately, the collapsing value of the dollar will have some beneficial environmental effects on this and especially on the amount of oil the US burns!

    I think you need to request an entry permit for you car trip thru YellowStone and many other US parks well in advance now. -AFAIK, much less than 1% of the US park visitors are without car or pick-up truck and many have a tralier hooked to the rear - that sure helps the environment and gas milage.

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    :shrug:

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    I bet half of the Chinese visitors to their parks or rural areas do not even own a car!
    Like the old commercial said: "In your Cherverole, See the USA."
    For more on Chinese environmental life style as now being developed, (a picture is worth 10,000 words) See:

    http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2300194&postcount=158

    BTW, I assume you know half of all the cranes in the world are building high rise building in ONE Chinese city mainly to avoid more and reduce existing abuse of the country side. You also probably know China will produce 500,000 hybrid electric cars in 2009, has six huge wind farms, in construction. One called “three gorges on land” and the power distribution grid to use them. Although only fourth now in the use of wind power, in about 4 years China will have more than the rest of the world's total – Why China is the overwhelming main market for wind machines now. (It has long been the world's leader in solar cell production.)

    Not to mention decades of the “one child / family” policy slowing population growth and the environment benefit of that. As far as Chinese in cars driving thru nature to enjoy it, that sound just like The western way: Westerners have many more cars and many animal parks you can drive thru where free ranging monkey will climb all over your slow moving car, etc while well feed lions walking beside it. Commercially manufactured “nature at it best.”

    Yes that is true and helping pull the global economy up now as many more Chinese now can buy more as the number of middle class rapidly increases and is paid higher real purchasing power salaries. - Even the poor farmers are buying cell phones. - Also helping make China the world's leading market for cell phones.

    Supporting your POV (and mine) on rapidly increasing Chinese wealth is a contest which you have a better than average chance to win here:

    http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2337576&postcount=12
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 12, 2009
  16. Tyler Registered Senior Member

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    4,888
    Well I've been on outdoor trips in Canada and outdoor trips in China, and the ratio is a lot smaller in Canada. (Admittedly I haven't spent much time hiking in the States.) Yes, you're right that fewer Chinese own cars. Instead, they just hire massive buses to take them around and opt out of hiking. Moreover, nearly every mountainous area in Canada is just that - mountains. In China, they all have massive structures built around and on them, another process that adds to pollution.

    Regardless, you and I are not in fundamental disagreement. Americans are extremely wasteful and high polluters and are only becoming marginally more aware of the negative results due to come. What I think you ignore is that 98% of the Chinese are not becoming more aware, they are growing into a 1950s Chevy attitude of use a monster truck to destroy mother nature. I agree with you that a chunk of the central government (and Guangdong's government in particular) are going to attempt an improvement, but (a) it takes the populace, and they're not on board (b) economic progress is the top and bottom line; environmental progress will only be done when it compliments or improves economic policies. I trust the Chinese will move into more eco-friendly energy sources faster than most Western nations, I just also know that coal ain't goin' away any time soon.
     
  17. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 14, 2009
  18. superstring01 Moderator

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    12,110
    We were saying?
     
  19. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Thanks for re-opening. If you or others have time go back and see this thread is really a model to follow.
     
  20. superstring01 Moderator

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    12,110
    After reading your request, I did just that. The last few pages were all I perused and it seems to in keeping with our new theme. I had originally posted when it was new and had lost interest. I will endeavor to keep a closer eye on the on-goings.

    I'll be honest, I didn't know how much we could possibly discuss this subject. Perhaps a name change is in order, Billy? Thoughts?

    ~String
     
  21. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Most threads suffer some detours. (This one also I bet, if I went back to look) but current title is not too constraining nor frequently subject to way off thread posts. Old name has served well for 837 posts so I see no need for name change. I note that Saint started this thread, not me, but he/she has not been active in it for years, so I have sort of taken it over to record events related to the title. When I do this, I usually make a comment or two and that often draws a counter POV comment (or from kmguru, more often agreement).
     
  22. superstring01 Moderator

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    12,110
    Very well. Stay, it will.

    ~String
     
  23. Tyler Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    4,888
    Perhaps we could expand the subject to talk about whether or not China will overtake the States in terms of art, cultural influence, political influence... areas outside of economics and military!
     

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