Perhaps it's time to repost something for your edification BillyT, though I doubt it will help. You saw it the first time and it didn't help. You have this thing about the dollar that is just fantasy. For many years now you predicted the dollar would fail last year at Halloween for a host of reasons. Well the dollar didn't fail and has done nothing but rise in value. You were wrong. Russian gold producers sell their gold production to banks who in turn can sell it internationally or to the Russian central bank. For the reasons listed in the Forbes article below and some not listed, that production is being sold to the Russian central bank and will likely be sold at some point in the future when Russia's foreign currency reserves run low and Russia is in dire need of foreign currency. "Russia’s central bank has been forced to step up its gold buying this year to absorb domestic production that Western sanctions are making it hard for miners to sell abroad, and to boost liquidity in its foreign reserves, sources said. Most Russian gold mine production is sold to domestic commercial banks, such as Sberbank or VTB, which can then sell the metal on to either the central bank or to foreign banks. This year, sources say, foreign banks are holding off buying Russian gold after Western powers implemented sanctions against the country over the Ukraine crisis. And as Pirrong points out, the central bank can pay for that gold in rubles meaning that it can simply print the money to boost those reserves. However, there is one more little wrinkle in the way that precious metals are treated under Russian law. Miners themselves aren’t allowed to export them (my information is a little old but I’m almost certain that this is still true, I was working in Russia in the metals business when this system was set up). They must be sold by the miners, at market prices, to a select few domestic dealers in those metals and the central bank has the right to purchase at or near the market price. Certain of those dealers are allowed to make export contracts which is what is referred to above. But some of those dealers are being affected by the financial sanctions imposed which is what makes the western banks wary of contracting with them for the export. http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors...-buying-gold-isnt-quite-what-you-think-it-is/
Biadu (the Chinese version of Google) isn't larger than Google. Google controls 74% of the search engine market outside China. Inside China Biadu is bigger because Google has chosen to limit its presence in China given China's severe restrictions and control of information. The world is larger than China BillyT. China accounts for about 19% of world population. In the other 80% of the world Google is big (Russia exempted, another state which controls and restricts the flow of information). http://returnonnow.com/internet-marketing-resources/2013-search-engine-market-share-by-country/
Good question. I'm not sure if democracy requires a strong set of critical thinking skills. Did most Americans in the 1700s have these skills? No. Most Americans wouldn't have been able to critically evaluate information. Most could not and can not analyze an argument. Most wouldn't even know what an argument is. Let alone the classifications of arguments. In my opinion, what maintains democracy is restraints on the government. Limited democratic government is the best way to maintain said government. Wow, have you ever worked in a large public institution? Sclerotic at best. Right now China is, in many ways, much freer than fascist America. However, history suggests they'll lean more towards authoritarian and eventually decline in both prosperity and influence. He also made an interesting argument (modus tollens) to David Hume's Problem of Induction. * An interesting side thread could be on how null hypotheses utilize modus tollens and why these arguments (being inductive) are not necessarily sound. IMO this is why democracy requires a free market, laws that protect property and uphold contract, sound free-market money and limited (with the goal of having no) government.
, only You must have reading comprehension problems as: You are NOT educating me. You are repeating exactly what I said here in post 18; onlyI gave more facts about 2014's volume and effect on reserves:
China, being a dictatorship, can easily declare a new train route and make everyone move. It's not so easy in the US. High speed trains can't run on existing right-of-ways due to turning radius constraints, so we have to buy up new land and negotiate with existing owners. They also don't have to be profitable in China.
Oh, cherry picking again? So now you agree the Russian central bank is buying up all the Russian gold production to bolster its foreign currency reserves?
No I just quoted you repeating my post 18, and claiming you were educating me. What are your referring to as "cherry picking"? I repeated IN FULL the first paragraph from post 18, which has all you "educated" me with PLUS gold volume data and discussion of how government's reserves, last resort buyer, are effected. Yes when Russian government buys new gold for its reserves it prints rubles in the amout the gold adds to reserves. This printing of gold backed "thin air money" is a very tiny fraction of what the FED does and all the Fed gets to hold as backing assets is US treasury paper promises, not gold. Prior to sanctions, the agents who could sell externally did so in part, but now as I said, the government has become the buyer of "last resort." Also, if you could read post 18 with comprehension you would know that even in 2014, with full sanctions in effect the government did not buy ALL the gold the miners sold to the agents authorized to buy. The government added 240 tonnes to central bank reserves and the agents bought from the miners 245 tonnes. I don't know what part of the 5 tonnes the agents held and what part they sold, for example, to Russian jewelry makers.
And they may be headed for three decades more of great improvement in average citizen's living standards, world influence growing even more, and more national wealth increase, but surely not as fast as it has been (not possible as then they would own everything in the world in three decades more). They already are world's greatest creditor nation, in part because the US has become the world's greatest debtor nation with trillions (in treasury promises) of dollars sent to China. That is the trouble with "may be" statements - not possible to refute them.
EXCEPT I AM NOT REPEATING YOUR POST, Russia is purchasing gold with rubles so it can later sell it foreign currency and that isn’t in any way related to your machinations about the US Dollar. Well Russia is a tiny fraction of the US and its central bank even more so. As I have told you numerous times over the years, there is nothing magical about gold. It’s just a commodity like any other. No country today backs its currency with gold or any other commodity. All currency is fiat currency; even if it is backed by gold or any other commodity. The alternative to fiat currency is barter. And barter is tremendously inefficient. Russia needs foreign currency more than it needs gold. As previously discussed with you there are a host of reasons why gold backed currencies are just not practical an there are many hazards associated with gold back currencies. That is why the world, more than a century ago began dumping gold back currencies.
Perhaps, that's one of the reasons that I employ them. As per my desires, refutation is a pale shadow of elaboration. China's economic growth is slowing faster than most countries have experienced. The trick is in slowing down the slowing before it plunges into a recession. Xi seems to have an odd perspective (by western standards), and I do not understand his concept of the "Chinese way". It seems that he would employ totalitarian politics with (quasi?)free market economics. Is the growth slowing because it was unsustainable in the first place? Or is it slowing because of his handling of the situations as they arise? Or does he have a master plan that remains not broadly understood?
I spent almost 30 years working for the world's largest municipal government, the County of Los Angeles. (The five boroughs of New York City are administered independently except for police, fire and schools.) I saw plenty of sclerosis... yet I also saw plenty of innovation. Under my leadership it was one of the first (possibly the first) large municipality to establish a data security program. Again, due to my prodding, the County began Y2K remediation in 1995, completed it in 1998, and then sent their experts out into the community to help other municipalities as well as private businesses. Please support that astounding assertion with examples. Their businesses might be freer than ours, but that's hardly something to brag about since our corporations have redesigned the economic curve to virtually stagnate income for the middle class, and as for the lower economic brackets they've shipped their jobs to China, greatly increasing poverty as well as foolishly destroying their own customer base. There's no way that anyone can say with a straight face that the Chinese citizens are freer than Americans. China is one of a small handful of countries with a higher percentage of its citizens in prison than the USA--most for "crimes" that have nothing to do with "keeping the peace." I think you've been reading too much Chinese propaganda. "Lean" toward authoritarianism??? Where have you been since the communist takeover at the end of WWII? They have cleverly blended communism with capitalism (to avoid the Soviet mistake of expecting government bureaucrats to run factories) and with Confucianism (the plutocrats are the "elders" and everyone respects their elders), and this might work for them... for a while. Now that Mexico has transformed itself into a middle-class country, U.S. firms are eyeing it as a better alternative to Chinese outsourcing. It's cheaper to ship raw materials and finished products over a land border than an ocean. They can station American managers in the factories, who can come home to their families on weekends. The average made-in-China product has 5% American-made content, while the average made-in-Mexico product has 40%: a boon to American workers. And finally, all the Chinese want is our money. The Mexicans want our hearts. They will not sell us poisonous dog food. (They have loved America and Americans ever since we sent troops to help them overthrow the French occupation in the 19th century. Any article on the origin of Cinco de Mayo will explain that.) Having no government is a libertarian fairy tale. Ayn Rand-style communities that rely on people being fair to each other only work in very small communities, where everybody knows everybody and they regard each other as one big extended family. This is why socialism works/worked in places like Bulgaria and Sweden. It doesn't work in larger, more heterogeneous populations, such as the former Czechoslovakia. The Czechs sloughed off, insisting that the Slovaks could do all the work, and the Slovaks felt the same way about them. Oddly, Ayn Rand didn't even trust her small libertarian communities to function by instinct. People actually charged each other a small fee to borrow their cars! Rand had a modest understanding of economics, but almost no understanding of human nature.
Chinese economy would need to contract about more than four times the percentage the US's would need to contract to enter recession = 2 quarters of negative (less than zero) GDP growth, so it is much more likely the US will re-enter recession than China will. I'm not sure what you refer to with "Chinese way" but probably it is the great emphasis that was earlier called the "harmonious society." From an early age, for some decades, Chinese youth have been indoctrinated with the idea that they are one people, and must prosper all together, or not at all. - In part this is white wash over their great diversity, especially the differences between coastal Chinese and those of the interior, very especially Chinese of the far NW, where most are Muslims and the those living in Tibet part of China (at least from the CCP's point of view and de facto.) China is a hybrid of central planning for major infrastructure projects and very free market place for consumer goods. This hybrid may be best economic system yet invented. The central planning is guided by 10 "five-year" plans that become very detailed from vague generalities as they approach the present. That lets China do things totally impossible in the US, but projects very beneficial to the society with first benefits beginning many decades later than start of funding. For example the world's largest by far water transfer project moves more than half the annual flow of the Nile river from Southern China to the extremely dry NE, area within 300km of Bejing. It just started, less than a year ago to deliver the water, which needs local processing to become potable, but is used for agriculture and industrial processes. Know when design studies for that project began? Answer: In the early 1950s! With much less expense, California could get all the water it needs from the closer Washington / Oregon state area. Unfortunately the US Congress is both disfunctional and never appropriates funds for any large cost project that will not have first benefit until most Congress members are dead, or at least no longer running for re-election. California will find some much more expensive (both in dollars and energy) way to continue existing. Probably sea water desalination facilities that can be producing fresh water in 5 or so year from first funding. China's consumer market is very free: Few if any permits are needed. If you think your business will be a financial success, you just start it. Market place will tell if you were correct, not some regulation bureaucracy. China "post regulates." I.e. if you do significant hard to the public, you will go to jail and your business assets if any will be sold. Kill some people and your life expectancy drops to one year. Eight were executed few years ago for adding a mildly toxic chemical to milk they had watered down, expanding the volume sold. Unfortunately for them (and about half a dozen babies who drank their adulterated milk) it was lethal for small babies. In contrast, the US "pre regulates" with many permits and inspections that significantly add to the cost of opening a business in America. - I'm not sure which is the better system: pre or post regulation, but certainly post regulation makes for a much more "free-enterprise" or capitalistic market place. When all is done (about 2030) the total length of China's SN water transfer project will be 2,700 miles! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! The above route map is only 1 of 3 sections - first to delivery water. Crossing the wide yellow river was quite a trick! Done with tunnels under it that may be world's greatest of their water filled type. Also impressive is the delivery end is 45 meters higher than the source. I think the last picture is a lift station when under construction.
What constitutes negative GDP growth BillyT? A falling economic growth rate (i.e. GDP) is a recession, and by the classical definition, China is already in recession even though its economy continues to grow. China's economic growth has slowed significantly but its economy continues to grow but at a much reduced rate. There is no universally accepted definition of a recession. How recessions are defined have changed over the years. However, it is generally accepted a recession is a broad based economic slowdown and under that definition, China is already in recession. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/politicalcalculations/2015/02/11/chinese-economy-continues-in-recession-n1955802/page/full Hmm, there is nothing new about dictatorships. China has a plan, but how effective it will be remains to be seen. Japan had a similar plan. How well did it work for Japan? I think you are severely underestimating China’s problems and challenges. If China is such a great place, why are all these nouveau riche Chinese folks buying up American land and moving to the US? China is also one of the most polluted countries in the world. There are problems with product quality (e.g. toxic materials in goods and tainted foods. et al). China isn’t the kind of place most Americans would want to live. "The number of Chinese Americans that were born overseas who are now living in the United States doubled in the decade between 2000 and 2010, a UN report states. Experts are attributing the rise to the growing middle class in China, who have been exiting their own country in droves to pursue business or educational opportunities abroad. Around 3.79 million Chinese people are now living in the United States, with 2.2 million of those being immigrants who were born in China, according to a UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs report." US Immigration.com http://www.us-immigration.com/us-im...nese-immigration-to-us-continues-to-increase/ http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2013-09/17/content_16975662.htm
I have re-worded to make that clear, but for me "negative" means less than zero, not reduction from one positive GDP to another smaller but still positive one. I. e. Negative growth is a contraction of the economy, not just a slow down in the rate of economic growth. That was completely clear as originally stated by my saying the percentage fall in China's GDP would need to be four times greater than the percentage of the US's GDP would need to be to enter a contraction phase. US is not now in an economic contraction phase, but much closer to negative GDP growth than China is. I don't agree that China is in recession. Their economy has slowed down about 10% from last year, but US Fed would love to do half as well as China is doing.
The people in Xinjiang are definitely not Chinese. They are Uighurs, a Turkic people, distant relatives of Genghis Khan. And as you point out, they are Muslims. The Chinese government has no tolerance for religion as anything but an excuse for celebrations. The Tibetan people are not Chinese either, but they are much more closely related to the Chinese than the Uighurs are. The Tibetan language is closely related to Chinese (we refer to this as the Sino-Tibetan language family) and the Tibetans are Buddhists, not Muslims.
You are going by religion, language and genetics. I am going by who makes the laws, controls the police, collects the taxes, and other governmental functions. I never said these people were Chinese, just that they all live in one nation, China. The US is one very ethnically diverse nation too. I agree, and said that China has a very diverse population, many "nations" do. The British foreign office intentionally divided the old Ottoman empire up into nations, like Iraq, with diverse population so they would be fighting amongst themselves and easier to control. By your ethnic / religious standards Iraq is not a nation.
In 2010 China GDP grew at a 10.6% rate. Last year it grew by 7.4%, and that is with huge stimulus. If you go back a little further, in 2007 China grew at a 14.2% rate. It should be very clear, China's growth rate is slowing. China's GDP growth has been cut in half over the course of the last 7 years. That's some serious shrinkage and that is with government funded economic stimulus. The World Bank projects China's 2015 GDP will grow by 7.1% with government funded economic stimulus. The World Bank has forecast 3.2% GDP growth for the US in 2015, and that is without economic stimulus. China's economic growth rate is shrinking whereas the US GDP rate is growing, and growing without government funded stimulus. Where China is desperately attempting to keep its growth rate high with government funded stimulus packages, the US is looking to slow economic growth later this year by raising interest rates. China is goosing its economy with stimulus and has been for sometime in order to keep its growth rate high. The US is not. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects/summary-table PS: Last year (2014) China's economy grew at 7.7% not 10%.
If your 7.7% and "my down 10% in a year" is also, then Curently China is gowing by about 7% - I think that is about correct. As I said, the US's Fed would love to see US growing at 7/2 = 3.5% (growing at half China's rate.) You also said in post 38: "China's growth rate is slowing. China's GDP growth has been cut in half over the course of the last 7 years. " And interestingly that "cut in half in seven years" is also an annual 10% per year decline. Easy and quick, simple way to know this is: RxT = 72 where R is a constant annual percent rate and T is the number of year in which something doubles or is cut in half. This is amazing good approximation instead of doing the year by year compounding calculations for most interest rate percents of interest. Check it if you like. For example enter 1.1 on simple hand-held calculator for 10% annual increase and multiply if by its self 7 times and find result is near 2. I. e. what was 1.0 at t = 0 and grows 10% per year for 7 years doubles. Do that again for something growing at 6% and find it will doubles in 12 years as 72/6 = 12. (or conversely it only take 6 years for something growing at 12% to double) and 4% growth takes 72/4 = 18 years to double. etc. An amazingly good, "Do it in your head" rule of thumb! Perhaps someone with a spread sheet will make a table showing how small the error is with this simple RxT = 72 rule is for range of interesting interest rates as I did years ago.
There is nothing new there BillyT. It's called the Rule of 72 and it has been taught to finance students for many decades.
