In the US, the economy has been steadily growing now fro 6 years and unemployment is now at 5% and nearing full employment. Last week's employment data showed wages increasing. Europe has reversed course and is now, finally, engaging in quantitative easing while the US has ended quantitative easing and will soon begin to raise interest rates in order to slow economic growth and prevent or minimize inflation resulting from its growing economy. China's growth is slowing. But, China is liquidating its substantial foreign currency reserves in order to prop up its economy. That should, if properly executed, mitigate or reverse China's slowing economic growth. But the issue is timing. China needs to act quickly, and thus far it is lagging. So where do we go from here? We can expect a stronger US Dollar owing to US central bank rate increases. That means gold and oil prices will suffer. That means US produced goods will become more expensive and therefore less attractive in foreign markets. We could see 900 dollar gold and 10 dollar silver in the coming months. Oil prices, depending on what happens in Iraq, sink below 40 dollars per barrel. That's more bad news for Russia and it's bad news for US companies which are heavily dependent upon foreign business. What will worry the markets are potential major defaults in the commodity space (e.g. Glencore) which could adversely affect key financial institutions. I don't think a global liquidity crisis is likely, as banks have recapitalized. But that won't free investors of that worry. So, I think it safe to say oil company stocks and oil become cheaper in the coming months. Interest rates will rise in the US. That will allow US banks to prosper, especially banks with large deposit bases like Bank of America. Their interest margins will improve, making them more profitable and more valuable. Oil refiners should continue to do well as lower oil prices improves their crack spreads (i.e. margins). I wouldn't endorse integrated oil companies like Chevron. But I think oil refiners like Northern Tier and Philips 66 are good investments in this environment as oil is a major expense for refiners and oil prices are falling. Developing countries will find debt more expensive as money flows from BRIC countries into the US for safety and to earn higher interest rates. So I think one should be very wear investing in BRIC countries. And I have never favored Chinese stocks because of the opaque nature of Chinese investing. It's more like gambling than investing and that's not my cup of tea. As an investor, I like US healthcare. I like everything about US healthcare. Things are rather tight for hospitals operating in red states which haven't accepted Medicaid expansion and therefore do not provide anything close to universal healthcare will continue to suffer. But as time drags on, more and more red states will be forced by economic circumstance to accept Medicaid expansion money and as the US population ages it will need more healthcare services. So I think the long term fundamentals are strong in the US healthcare industry. However, there is this thing called politics and it has and probably will continue to adversely affect the industry. Ultimately, I don't expect any major changes with respect to government regulation. But the political rhetoric will likely scare some investors, it already has. I do expect some revolutionary changes in technology. But when those changes are realized and when those companies offer stock is unknown and probably unknowable. For instance, there is a 10 year old company, Theranos, which will revolutionize blood collection and testing and in doing so will dramatically lower healthcare costs and improve healthcare outcomes. It is now partnering with major and some very prestigious hospitals to expand its business and is now offering its services at some Walgreens locations and is expected to eventually offer its blood collection services at all Walgreens locations. Theranos uses a finger prick instead of venous draws to collect blood. In a rising interest rate environment the place to be is in high growth. So I think growth stocks will be in favor next year. On the good side, I don't think any increases in US interest rates will be large. I don't expect to see interest rates significantly higher in 2016 than in 2015. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed begins interest rate increases next month with a .125% increase. That isn't a big increase.
I'll comment later on parts of the OP - mainly with differeet interpretations than yours in a few cases, but this seems like an apprpriate place to post this: BTW: Of the top 10 killing diseases, Alzheimers, is the only one that is never cured. I am inclined to think your (or mine at least*) probability of getting it can be greatly reduced - Based on study of Catholic nuns that in some sense were often followed for more than six decades, by accident. All ate the same food, had basically the same programs of physical activity etc. - Very simular life styles. When as a young girl, often not more than 20 years of age, the convent they joined had them write a long essay on why they wanted to become nun. Those essays still exist and have been evaluated by English (or French if convent was in France - I forget this detail) professors and other experts. Their library records are also available - which books they read - simple stories vs deep philosophical texts, etc were noted. Whether or not they exchanged many or few letters with friends. The result were quite clear, but which is cause and which is effect is not. Intelectual and life-long intellectually active nuns had much lower rate of Alzheimers. As I recall about half or less than half the ones with simple essays, easy to read books, and not many different targets for their letters - that was more predictive than the total number. * I'm 79 years old and not an efficient user of Google. - I have Ph. D. in physic and still follow that literature, if it is not using tensors**, and several other fields, especially related to perception, health and economic events. My memory is excelent for what I have read - so much so that I rarely need to use Google - just recall any facts I need for posting. ** I am an experimental physicist - don't really like the trends of physics to mainly complex math. Main reason three decades ago my main focus shifted to trying to understand how brain works, especially related to visual perception.*** I am slightly dyslexic and don't notice my typing errors easily. Consequently, I am often still editing when others have posted more in the thread. *** I have concluded that the modern accepted "Perception emerges after many stages of neural computational transform of sensory data input." is entirely wrong. See this for reasons why and what i correct. http://www.sciforums.com/threads/is...fe-is-it-an-illusion.49127/page-4#post-905778 Although that post focuses on how Free Will can be possible despite the discharge of every nerve in the body 100% controlled by physical law. It does explain and support what I call the RTS Real Time Simulation, verions of perception.
I agree. That was accidently part of the post, until I soon removed it. I had stored it for posting elsewhere.
This is probably a good time to buy defense stocks. With all the geopolitical shenanigans in Russia/Ukraine, Syria, and China, and going into a US presidential election, I think military spending not only in the US but around the globe will be robust. So defense stocks make sense.
