Global warming will never be a problem because oil is running out. Check the BP energy stats website below, you can download a MS Excel spreadsheet with all the necessary data to do your own calculations (if you want). http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/world_stat_rev/oil/reserves.asp Or you can just take my word for it that the so-called Global Warming problem will never be noticeable, since worldwide oil reserves will be completely exhausted in less than 32 years, assuming production trends can be maintained. At least that's what the steady-state theory says, but oilfield yields tend to follow a bell-curve of production over their lifetime, referred to as the Hubbert Peak. The Hubbert Peak model says oilwell production will reach a peak, and then decline exponentially forever after that. Domestic oil production in the United States has already demonstrated this pattern, reaching a peak in 1970, and declining 31.4% in the last 32 years despite oil exploration efforts. Publications from the Hubbert Center (Colorado School of Mines) predict that worldwide peak oil production will occur ~2009 AD, with a decrease in yields of 3 percent per year after that, no matter how many new oilwells we drill. At that rate world oil production will be: - down 17% by 2015 AD - down 30% by 2020 AD - down 50% by 2032 AD - down 72% by 2050 AD - down 90% by 2084 AD Notice it drops sharply in the near-term, immediately following the peak! Such is the nature of exponential decay. Once oil production reaches a peak and starts declining there will be no question about what is happening. In fact there will only be a year or two at most to react before the economy becomes terminal. There will be no need, or time, to debate the issue, like there is for global warming. The only important questions are: 1. When will peak production occur? and 2. What do we do when it does? Dick Cheney predicted that world energy consumption will rise by 30-60% by 2020 AD. If that prediction applies to oil consumption specifically then something does not jive. One cannot increase consumption when supply lines are failing, so one of the predictions is incorrect. Nevertheless prior to peak production there is nothing we can do but assume Dick Cheney is correct. Why? Because we don't know exactly when peak production will occur, AND, there is no sustainable transportation system that can mix with the current one safely. It is too dangerous to use small hydrogen-fueled cars on the road with big 18-wheel diesel trucks, or even big trucks and SUVs. The changeover to the sustainable system will likely be abrupt, involving a separation of large 18-wheelers and personal cars to their own exclusive roadways. The intervening months will bring emergency measures to house and feed people that are put out of work by the fuel shortage. In my opinion the transition period will be a long, long, LONG couple of years. Many people will end up doing manual labor, perhaps living in dormitory-style residences to minimize housing costs. Recessions have occurred about every 10-12 years, meaning that the next one ~2014 AD could coincide with long-lasting oil shortage. Indeed, the next recession could last 10 years (not six months like the current one) as people constantly try to cope with sharply dropping oil supplies and increasing expenses. Some countries have set aside certain streets exclusively for public buses, but none have made any accommodations for tiny motorized vehicles and bicycles. Most have the attitude that bicycle lanes are more than cyclists deserve. Besides making certain transit routes exclusive to heavy versus light vehicles, it is unknown how to prevent the economic catastrophe from happening, nor how to deal with it when it happens. Everyone knows that small, lightweight cars get better fuel economy, and if you want to change the nature of automobiles, you have to start by changing the nature of the transportation infrastructure, the primary enabling technology of the automobile.