Australia's Hung Parliment

Personally I think we have reached the point where it might be beneficial to just go back to the polls. With people like Fielding saying that he will block everything in the Senate if Labor manages to form a minority Government and the LIB's antics with the independents, and the very fact that the independents are looking more like a party at present, this does not look like it will end anytime soon.

I think the actions of the Coalition have been ridiculous since the election and it will probably get worse if Labor is able to form a minority government.

And I am dubious about what will get through the Senate with Greens holding the balance from next year.

 

Current state of play looks like (for the House of Reps):

Labor 72 seats
Liberal/National 73
Greens 1
Independents 4

Since Adam Bandt (Greens) says he will support Labor, we have a 73-73 split between Labor and the Lib/Nationals, with the 4 independents holding the balance of power.

Labor and the Greens have just signed a deal under which Labor will make various concessions to the Greens in return for their support in the House and the Senate.
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The convention would be that the incumbent government (Labor) should have the first chance of forming a new government. In practice, that doesn't make much difference if the Independents decide to support the Lib/Nat coalition.

I have no idea how things will turn out. 3 out of the 4 independents were former National Party MPs, so their political philosophies seem more likely to align with the coalition than with Labor at the end of the day, despite their claims that they are looking at things from an unbiased perspective, saying they just want the most stable government.

So, we'll either under up with Julia Gillard (Labor) or Tony Abbott (Lib) as PM.

My personal view is that we need to look at the bigger picture than who would make the best PM. I'd ask whether the Liberal/Nat coalition deserves to govern and is ready to do so again. I'm not sure that they've learned their lesson from 2007 yet.

I think that Labor ran a terrible election campaign. They did not capitalise on their strengths and did not present much of a vision for the future of the nation. The Lib/Nats, of course, ran mainly on a "we're not Labor, and we won't do what they want to do" platform, which was hardly inspiring either. Tony Abbott performed beyond all expectations during the campaign, but do you really think he's PM material?

 

Brian:

Why are you commenting?

I would have expected you to follow Mark Latham's advice and proudly vote informal at the election as you claim you always do, thus letting other people decide for you who is best qualified to govern.

I cast a vote. My opinion actually makes a difference.

 

At a cost of ... what ... $50 million or so?

Fielding is suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome after losing his Senate seat. He should never have been elected in the first place, of course. That's the fault of the Labor and Liberal parties. It's worth mentioning that the Liberals didn't learn their lesson with Fielding. At the most recent election they were still preferencing Family First next after themselves. Labor preferenced the Greens. With 96% of people voting above the line in the Senate, a lot of preferences flowed to Fielding, still.

True. The coalition will do its best to block everything in the Senate until the new Senate starts sitting next July.

Labor and the Greens now have a deal of sorts. If the Libs/Nats form government, there may be more problems.

 

Compared to the current uncertainty and lack of governance?

The Coalition wanted Fielding to remain in the Senate as he is a conservative. Brown and the Coalition never had a good relationship, especially with that of the Liberal party.

I think both major parties have failed to actually listen. Gillard was in repair mode after Rudd was cornered and frankly, it had to be done. Abbott ran a campaign that capitalised on that uncertainty and it was all negative.

Fielding is a tool who, in his desperation, attempted to get preferences from the Sex Party, who refused him soundly. But you are right that in many seats, Liberal candidates did preference to Family First. But I believe as in the previous election, some Labor candidates gave their preferences to them as well over the Liberal candidates in those seats. At the end of the day, Fielding dug his own grave and Labor and the Coalition helped him and helped dig their own.

Abbott did a lot to get the Coalition to win that many seats. But I think that Labor also helped them. I know that in QLD and NSW the backlash against Labor was in response to State politics and in QLD especially, there was a particular backlash against the mining tax and the backstep on environmental policies from the Labor Government. Frankly, Gillard did very well in managing to hold on to the point where they now are. I have a particular dislike of Abbott and I don't think he will be able to be an effective Prime Minister.

But I am not comfortable with a minority Government with independents who are acting as though they are a small party. And with each trying to get the best deal for their constituents, and with at least one hell bent on revenge against the Nationals, this has become an impossible situation.

Which could result in our having to go back to the polls regardless.

I think a Government being held to ransom by the Senate will not allow for effective Governance.

Bingo!

With the Greens having already signed an agreement to stand with Labor this early on in the game, if the independents form a coalition with the Liberal/National Parties, then imagine the calls of bias and agreements if the Greens block anything in the Senate from a Coalition Government from July next year?

At this point, we are in an unwinnable situation. Either way, regardless of who forms Government, we may possibly end up going back to the polls sooner rather than later.

 

Brian:

You think somebody "rigged" the election to get a hung parliament.

Yeah... ok. :crazy:

 

Bells,

Yeah, the Libs would prefer Fielding to the Greens. Also, Fielding is at least a known quantity, and apparently not too hard to manipulate. He voted against a lot of pro-family measures, despite claiming to be "Family First".

Yes. I think it's good they were sent a message.

Are you saying you think Rudd had to go? I think it may have been a mistake.

That's in the lower house. In the Senate, the Libs directed preferences to Family First above everybody else; Labor directed them to the Greens.

I wonder how many voters confused state and federal issues and took their wrath at their state governments out on federal Labor.

Labor's backflip on the emissions trading scheme was a major factor in causing general disillusionment, I think.

I'm interested to see how it plays out.

Yes, if that's what happens.

 

Asguard:

All good points.

Yes, and if you don't count Adam Bandt, Labor has 72 as well.

Fielding is a Victorian senator. He'll be there until July.

Interesting.

I'm all in favour of the Greens having the balance of power in the Senate. It will be an interesting position for them, though, and I hope they carry it out responsibly.

That's possible, but I think unlikely.

 

Numbers of Senators:

Code:

                         Continuing  New   Total
Liberal/National Party   16          18    34
Australian Labor Party 	 16          15    31
Australian Greens         3           6     9
Others                    1           1     2

The 1 new "other", by the way, looks to be potentially a Democratic Labor Party senator in Victoria.

 

Fielding got exactly what he deserved in the end.

And at the moment the message has been lost in the bitter wrangling between both of them and the trifecta that is the Independents who are out to gain as much benefit for their electorates.

If Rudd had not gone, the election would have been a whitewash.

Which they had admitted from the start. However prior to the election, there were several arguments between some Labor senators and Brown over preferences.

I think both NSW and QLD State Governments were fundamental in the swing against Labor in those States. Images in election adds in QLD and NSW shoing Gillard whispering in the ears of both State Premiers did not help her either.

As for the ETS. That was a major blow to the campaign and that was Rudd's doing, something that Gillard had to pay for in the election.

We don't have much choice in the matter to but to see how it plays out.



Asguard

I don't have a problem against the Greens having the balance of power in the Senate. But that can become problematic if the Coalition is given power by the Independents. I think it can also become an issue if Labor is given power to Govern, due to the issue of bias that may arise as a result.

If we do go back to the polls and it is just for the Lower House, then it may be better then the situation we are currently in with a caretaker Government and 3 independents making demands about what they want to the parties before they decide who is to Govern.

I don't have a problem with minority Governments. However I do have a problem with Independents intent mostly on what gains they can get for their electorates before they decide who is to govern. And they are no longer acting as Independents but as a party of their own.