Worldwide Oil Depletion - Professional Engineers of Ontario


Impossible? I can do that
Registered Senior Member
Buried in this publication by the Professional Engineers of Ontario (APEO) is a short blurb about a May 2000 Popular Science article. The latter article predicts significant exhaustion of worldwide oil reserves sometime in the next 10-15 years, and the total lack of a plan to do anything about it. It also quotes as a scientific reference the Oil & Gas Journal.

My own calculations indicate shortages in the same period caused by exponentially increasing demand from Asia-Pacific countries, and the simultaneous exhaustion of reserves in North America & Europe. By 2015 almost all the world's oil supply will come from one place: Saudi Arabia. They won't be able to support such extraordinary demand.
I find this interesting, Success_Machine. It seems to make the energy policies have a little more sense when viewed with this in mind. It's just that there is no sense of urgency if this is so.

Ethanol enhanced gas is an easy way to increase the volume of gas available to the consumer. This will not answer the long haul demand for fuel. It will only assist us in the volume there to some small degree. I do have every confidence that this need for transportation will be met on ground level with some other cobbled idea that will get us around. Air flight might be another bowl of beans though. Unless they have some plans for converting the combustion engine to another fuel in which case we the consumer, will be faced with a huge bill to pay for retrofitting the nation. (You didn't think the major corporations would pay did you?)

In your calculations, Success_Machine, did you take into account the newer methods of discovering oil? The deep water stuff also? There is a new, as yet untapped reservoir, reputed to be in the Gulf of Mexico. Estimated to be near the size of the Saudi fields. Expense, level of technology, and the geologic structure of the sands that hold it make it not so attractive to "get it now". But inside sources are pretty sure that it is there.
There are 4 major source of energy


There is plenty of oil that will last another 200 years (assuming we are using Gas and Coal at the same time). There is plenty of Coal out there through not a good fuel source due to possible pollution. So, we need to find a way to generate Nuclear Fusion technology as soon as possible. Since America does not have the interest in Fusion technology to bring it to market, I suspect, China will be the one to develop the technology as they did with small nuclear power plants.

There is another source no one seems to be working on. That is chemical energy similar to plastic explosives. The energy required to produce those chemicals is small compared to the energy release. So may be we can find a way to harness such energy too.

The bottom line is Fusion technology period - for now and may be a micro backhole, matter/antimatter or some esoteric matter energy program 600 years from now.

In 800 years we could have the super energy drive to push the asteroid out of the way....
There has been some recent success in nuclear fusion technology (I'll dig up the link and post it). Russian/American joint programme.

One question though, hydrogen fuel cell? (perhaps mass energy generation will give way to more individual energy generation - look at silicon valley, California state cant't be trusted so Microsoft brings in its own generators)
Hydrogen Fuel Cell:

Good idea if you can split water to its constituents using a simple polymer membrane or some low energy method - it wont work. May be a little electrical dissociation, pressue and molecular filter may do the trick....
Good idea if you can split water to its constituents using a simple polymer membrane or some low energy method - it wont work. May be a little electrical dissociation, pressue and molecular filter may do the trick....

While not the same thing, I have had some experience with osmosis type water makers. They are labor and material intensive. Not to mention that they are expensive to operate and maintain. The membranes run on the neighborhood of $6000 per membrane to change. The last one I worked on took 8 membranes. You do the math. That doesn't count backflushes and daily chemical treatments. What I am getting to here is that if you don't use sterile water you will have to do something with the sediment, chemicals, and minerals that all water possesses. Most likely will be a membrane change.