Ok. Let's get down to some nitty gritty.
First of all. This is a bit of an old link and the links to the original data are not working. I've searched and found them here:
Intelligence and the Wealth and Poverty of Nations.
The paper is written about a theorized correlation between national IQ scores and GNP. The article linked by Android only takes a portion of this data. Specifically the national IQ's.
http://www.rlynn.co.uk/pages/article_intelligence/7-a1.asp
There is, of course, a fallacy right off the bat here.
The numbers are IQ scores.
The title suggests intelligence.
There are multiple disclaimers, of course. But, it must be stressed that IQ tests are highly controversial. Such strong language as is taken in the title "Intelligence and the Wealth and Povery of Nations" is unwarranted and should be looked upon with a leery eye.
That said, let's get to the meat of the relevant page in the article.
http://www.rlynn.co.uk/pages/article_intelligence/3.asp
"METHOD
This study presents data for 60 countries for national IQs, per capita incomes in 1998, and economic growth 1950-1998 and examines their relationships by the statistical techniques of correlation and regression analyses.
National IQs
National IQs have been calculated from normative data obtained in 60 countries for the Colored and Standard Progressive Matrices. The reasons for using these data are that the Progressive Matrices is the most widely used test in cross-cultural research, is non-verbal and hence is likely to yield more valid cross cultural data than verbal tests which require translation, is among the best measures of g, and the rate of secular increase is well established. The data have been obtained from the bibliographies of Progressive Matrices studies compiled by Court (1980) and Court and Raven (1995), from the data given by Raven in a series of manuals and research supplements for the Progressive Matrices, and from the Raven archive.
The Standard Progressive Matrices was constructed in Britain in the 1930s and was first published in 1938 with norms for 6-15 year olds and adults. This was followed by the publication in 1947 of the Colored Progressive Matrices, a simpler test suitable for 5-11 year olds. The Standard Progressive Matrices was renormed for 6 to 15 year olds in Britain 1979. A norm table is provided by Raven (1981) giving percentile equivalents of raw scores for half year age groups. The procedure for calculating the IQ of a country in which norms have been obtained for the Standard Progressive Matrices is to read off the raw scores of the 50th percentile from the norm table and obtain the British 1979 percentile. This is then converted to the British IQ equivalent using a conversion table. The raw score of the 50th percentile is the median IQ rather than the mean. Several studies have provided mean raw scores in addition to the medians and these show that means and medians are virtually identical. In most countries in which Progressive Matrices data have been collected norms have been given for a number of age groups. IQs are calculated for each of these and averaged to give a single national IQ. This IQ is then adjusted for the secular rise of the IQ which has been 2 IQ points per decade for the Standard Progressive Matrices in Britain over the period 1938-1979 (Lynn and Hampson, 1986). All national IQs are therefore expressed in relation to a British IQ of 100.
Norms for the Standard Progressive were collected for adults for Britain in 1992 and for the United States for 1993. The norm table for the United States provided by Raven, Court and Raven (1996) gives the most detailed information consisting of the percentile equivalents of raw scores. Less information is provided for the British standardization which gives only the raw score equivalents of the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles. The British medians have been converted to American IQs by the use of the American norm table. The result of this calculation is that the British IQ is 102 on the American norms. Data for adults from other countries are converted to American IQs and then adjusted to British IQs by the subtraction of 2 IQ points.
There are no norms giving detailed percentiles for the Colored Progressive Matrices for Britain, the United States or elsewhere. To deal with data for the Colored Progressive Matrices, raw scores are converted to those of the Standard Progressive Matrices using the conversion table provided by Raven, Court and Raven (1995) and the IQs calculated in the way set out above.
In a few instances median raw scores fall below the 1st percentile of the British and American norm tables. The 1st percentile is equivalent to an IQ of 65. In these cases the countries are assigned an IQ of 64. For a number of countries Progressive Matrices data have been collected for two or more samples. These have been averaged to provide a single mean given to the nearest whole number."
So:
android said:
Not correct - IQ is normalized to a local population to generate that figure, and worldwide populations have inconsistent IQs. So we use the normalization for the United States, and find by that some nations have higher and some lower average IQ.
First:
We? Are you Robert Lynn, Tatu Vanhanen, or perhaps Ole Eichhorn? Or are you one of those who feel that you, as a human being, deserve the accolades for all human achievement? (A sentiment that would (or should) be out of character for you, I'd think. A nihilist, aren't you? Or did you give that up when you went from Anus to Corrupt?)
Anyway. Mouse in your pocket aside.
It would seem from the above quote that the specific method is unclear.
FIrst it mentions using the British norm, but then it says that it uses the American norm and then adjusts by 2 to make it the British norm.
Hmm.
I'm not a statistician and am not sure of all the ramifications of the above number-jumbling.
I can say that this whole article gives off a touch of a biased odor though. But that's just a hunch.
Anyway.
So. All these national IQ's are then compared to the British IQ mean of 100. (The British mean of 1979, that is. And then adjusted for the Flynn Effect... More shifty business, if you ask me. Why not use more current data?)
From this, the author of the link originally provided, Ole, makes several assumptions and does his little dance.
The assumptions are that the populations of different countries will not mix. (A ludicrous notion, in my opinion.)
And that the measured IQ in each country will remain stable. (Another ludicrous notion even without the Flynn Effect. Developing nations have vast room for improvement and at least some will rise significantly. Especially India, a country that is growing in technological knowledge in leaps and bounds.)
Another assumption, unstated, is that population growth rates will continue at present-day trends.
All the assumptions are very precarious.
The main jist of the article is that, given todays National IQ's and today's population growth rates, the 'dumb' countries will outbreed the 'smart' countries and thus the world's IQ, compared to the 1979 British national IQ, will diminish.
It's not saying that America is getting dumber.
It's not saying that Britain is getting dumber.
It's not saying that any country whatsoever is getting dumber (or smarter, for that matter.)
It's saying that the ignorant breed like rabbits.
There is a recent article in Science on this population trend, by the way.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/312/5782/1894
You need to be a member to view it, I'm afraid. But I did swipe this illustration:
Fraggle,
It's very hard to design IQ tests that are not culture-biased. In my own lifetime--the 20th Century--I saw an IQ test with the following question:
If Trevor has two pounds twelve shillings sixpence and lets Nigel borrow half of his money, how many apples will he be able to buy from Tolen with the money he has left, if each apple costs two shillings thruppence ha'penny?
We're a little better nowadays at devising tests, but we haven't completely solved the problem. How would you craft a test for a population that is largely illiterate? Largely ignorant of events more than a hundred miles from their home? What referents can you rely on to make sense to them? If people's lives don't challenge them to use their raw intelligence, it may simply be undetectable and unmeasurable.
I would be extremely suspicious of low IQ scores in the Third World. Whether or not education makes you smarter, it makes you more facile at answering questions and it makes you a whole lot better at taking multiple-choice tests!
The tests used in this 'study' were the
Raven Progressive Matrices which test visual intelligence rather than verbal. They are purported to be less culturally biased than verbal tests, but one has to wonder about this as it seems that there is a huge cultural divide.
Perhaps all the nations that scored poorly really are borderline retarded...?
As I was saying about IQ scores in the Third World. Does anyone really believe that the average person in Nigeria is literally a moron? Has the mental capacity of a toddler? They wouldn't be able to take care of their own children, shop for food, or perhaps even come in out of the rain. I'm sorry but this is just wholly presposterous. There's clearly a cultural bias in the test against people without formal western-style educations.
I agree.
This reminds me of research done on aboriginal indians in Brazil that have never developed a number system that counts more than two or three. They're not stupid, but they don't understand the concepts of counting. They have no sense of precision.
It's been awhile, but I could dig up the references to the two journal articles I have in mind.... Interesting stuff, really.
I'm sure that at least Mensa will hold the line and not give in to IQ inflation. Right now they take the top two percent of the population, which puts the dividing line at about 135. If it gets to the point that only one tenth of one percent of the population is that bright, they will probably just become more exclusive.
Mensa is, of course, hanging on to a precarious position themselves.
IQ is not necessarily all that it's made out to be. Yet, Mensa members derive quite a bit of satisfaction from being in the 'upper two percent of the population'.
However. I don't see how they could refuse to accept IQ renormalization. It's part of the definition of IQ. 100 is the mean IQ of a given population.
Heh.
While looking into some of this stuff, I came across an interesting anecdote.
By having two legs, you have a larger than average number of legs. Did you know that?
The mean is not the median. Smart kids are in there throwing off the curve. (What do dumb kids do to the curve, I wonder?)
Android,
This isn't a difficult concept. I'm sorry you embarrassed yourself over it.
Embarrassed?
Jump to conclusions a lot, do you?
By the way. If every population that has taken the test has a mean score of 100 for their 'norm'. Then wouldn't this, on the whole, indicate a mean score of 100 for the population of the Earth as a whole?
Or, do you think that the above average number of legs figures in to this somehow?
No, it doesn't. The Flynn Effect states that IQ on the whole is rising, but not to levels to compensate for this. Also, the figures used in this study were already Flynn-Effect-compensated.
I suspect that the Flynn Effect adjusted numbers actually increased the bias.
The Flynn Effect is reaching a plateau in some parts of the world.
Seems to me that if the IQ tests were culturally unbiased, then we'd see that the Flynn Effect is reaching the plateau in most developed nations but not in the developing nations.
It seems to me that this:
"This IQ is then adjusted for the secular rise of the IQ which has been 2 IQ points per decade for the Standard Progressive Matrices in Britain over the period 1938-1979 (Lynn and Hampson, 1986). All national IQs are therefore expressed in relation to a British IQ of 100."
means that the procedure is to take the median score of present-day IQ tests in the varous countries and derive the 'National IQ' from this. They then compare this with the 1979 British score which is adjusted for the Flynn Effect.
I can't think of any reason why the Flynn Effect would need to be figured in for current tests, so it can only be that the 1979 figure is being artificially adjusted. (I suppose the current tests could be lowered by the number predicted by the Flynn Effect....)
Again. Why not use current data from Britain? Why use such old data? If current data were being used there would be absolutely no need to do all this artificial adjustment to compensate for the Flynn Effect.
Are you going to tell me that the most recent data set for Britain's IQ scores are from 1979?
Riiiiiiight.
So. The question is why are the particular data sets being used.
Blackrain,
Whatever you thought was there, is not there. Sure you got the right link?