Until we have established a plausible, detailed, quantitative pathway from non-life to life this is everything to worry about.
Ah-ha!!
Someone said it finally. This has been on my mind since reading through the pdf quoted by Charonz a while back (I searched the web and found the entire document. Interesting read.)
My mind has been circling around the implications of Godel's Incompleteness Theorem in conjunction with the various therems of Turing, Church, and Tarksi. This idea you have of 'establishing a plausible, detailed, quantitative pathway from non-life to life" is, I think, proved unlikely by these concepts.
The problem is that evolutionary processes are not a simple enough system to escape the implications of incompleteness. We can look at your search for this plausible evolutionary path as the search for justification of a theorem in a formal system. We have the theorem (life as we know it) and we want to trace the path of evolution to lead back to some axiom (reverse derivation back to the origins of life.)
Now. There's nothing that says that we won't get lucky and come across a derivation that works (although the lack of axioms does make this incredibly unlikely) but we can say that there is no surety that such a derivation will ever be found.
The problem is that determining the derivation of a theorem is not primitive recursive (guaranteed to end) it's general recursive and this means that the recursion can go infinitely deep and we stumble onto Turing's Halting Problem.
The derivation of life, the determination of the axioms of life, is an undecidable proposition in any sufficiently quantitative system.
The only hope, of course, centers on the word 'plausible'. However, plausibility is just that and any derivation that might be achieved would be highly tentative at best.
There can be no surety in this matter.
We might as well have spontaneously generated like the proverbial fly from feces...
However, I have little doubt that even though this derivation can never truly answer the question as to the origins of life, it could help us in problems of the now and the future. It can help us to understand the mechanisms of life and evolution and it could shape our future in quite significant ways. Even if a plausible derivation is never achieved, the search might be just as fruitful as a discovery in this regard.
Now. As to that pdf. I was pleasantly surprised to see my own private thoughts echoed within. I've been pondering this very issue on the beginnings of life for quite some time and a distinction I keep coming up against in my own thoughts is the question on which came first? Metabolism or evolution? Did the first life-forms replicate themselves? Or did the first life-forms metabolise simpler molecules to power further cycles of metabolisation?
A huge problem in this discussion of the 'origins of life' is the problem of definitions. "Life" is poorly defined. It's derived from layman's language and has never been adequately defined to a scientific level. What is life? Is it replication? Is it metabolic activity? Is it both? The cell was once the definition of life. But, much as the atom, the cell is no longer the indivisible unit that it once was. How far down do you go before you stop calling it life and start calling it chemical?
Tricky.
And, what of the question of cells? Were there life-forms prior to the formation (or acquisition) of the cell membrane?
So many questions to answer. So many definitions that need to be elucidated.
And. As to pan spermia. I have no problem with the theory. It's true that it pushes the problem into space without solving it, but the problem will never be 'solved'. Pushing it into space is merely one of the optional twists and turns that might have taken place in the derivation. It's a legal move and has a good deal of evidence backing up the possibility. The truth will never be known for sure though. This must be accepted (but shouldn't deter the search...)
One last thing:
We also have a pretty good idea of conditions on early Earth and at least as good an idea of conditions in comets and gas clouds.
I disagree. I say the early conditions of both the Earth and the Solar System are debatable. I suspect that, while this question falls prey to Godel's theorem as do so many others, it does not do so quite as severely as the question of the origin of Life. But, there's still no guarantee of working out the derivation....
Anyway. I recently referenced an article in another thread which pushed back the formation of Earth's oceans by half a billion years. From 3.8 to 4.3 billion years ago. The point being that we don't know the conditions of the early Earth. These conditions are debated strongly and as such the question on the materials which the original life forms had to work with are unknown.
Axioms. In search of axioms.
It's funny how mathematics proceeds from axioms to theorems, but life must follow the opposite path.
We're like crabs.
Scuttling around in search of beginnings.
Unfortunately time is unidirectional unlike musical notes.
Spurious,
I don't see why we would need more time.
Do you not see why we do not need no more time?
Muaha!!
The question isn't one of need.