War on Iran

[Sarkus]

Pissed off some GOP and Ind voters who tend to vote their pocketbook and/or the MAGA stand on isolationism. There's a possibility the Iran goat rodeo will give us a Democratic majority in the House. (If this latest fevered round of gerrymanders don't work)

Based on current popularity and polls, if the Dems don't flip the House in November, I can't see that they ever will again. They would surely never regain power in those states that have gerrymandered, so never be able to reverse it. So, if the gerrymandering succeeds for the GOP, it would lock in those changes, those votes, for the forseeable future. Not a good prospect. :/

 

[exchemist]

What seems to have happened is that after a French flagged vessel trying to traverse the Strait was hit by an Iranian missile, shipowners have concluded the US does in fact not have the means to assure the safety of transiting vessels.

Approx 4 hours after the hit on this vessel, the "pause" was announced by Trump, accompanied by the usual blood-curdling threats to make it look as if it is he that in control.

Timeline here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6p5q2dx1po

 

[geordief]

What seems to have happened is that after a French flagged vessel trying to traverse the Strait was hit by an Iranian missile, shipowners have concluded the US does in fact not have the means to assure the safety of transiting vessels.

Approx 4 hours after the hit on this vessel, the "pause" was announced by Trump, accompanied by the usual blood-curdling threats to make it look as if it is he that in control.

Timeline here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6p5q2dx1po

What would it take to force the Iranian regime to stop controlling the passage of shipping off its coast?

If US cannot do it then can it be done if China joins the effort?

Ir is this purely in the gift of the Iranian regime so that they will cooperate but only if the terms of an overall agreement are acceptable ?(or if there is an uprising leading to a complete reshuffle of the pack)

Could US have forced the regime to cave but was unwilling to force the issue because the war is unpopular at home(and abroad but do they care?) and would endure electoral defeat in October if pursued ?

 

[exchemist]

What w
What would it take to force the Iranian regime to stop controlling the passage of shipping off its coast?

If US cannot do it then can it be done if China joins the effort?

Ir is this purely in the gift of the Iranian regime so that they will cooperate but only if the terms of an overall agreement are acceptable ?(or if there is an uprising leading to a complete reshuffle of the pack)

Could US have forced the regime to cave but was unwilling to force the issue because the war is unpopular at home(and abroad but do they care?) and would endure electoral defeat in October if pursued ?

I don't think forcing them is an option at all, frankly. Trying to coerce them has been Trump's blunder from the start. Trump only understands coercion. He's just like Putin in that respect.

I think it needs negotiation. The Iranians will realise that the longer this goes on the more damage it does to the prospect of a comfortable future modus vivendi with their Gulf neighbours. They will also realise that workarounds will start to be developed, both short term and long term. So the value of their weapon will decline if they over-use it. therefore I am sure they will be open to proposals to resolve this. But negotiation involves concessions by both parties. This is something the author of "The Art of the Deal" has apparently never understood. Durrh. And the fact is they have lost a lot of people - and a lot of infrastructure which it will cost them to replace. So I see them as looking for a financial element, either a fee for passage of the Strait or the unfreezing of assets held by the US. If Trump continues to demand total capitulation, in the form of compliance with all his demands, they will tell him to fuck off.