War on Iran

TheVat said:
Pissed off some GOP and Ind voters who tend to vote their pocketbook and/or the MAGA stand on isolationism. There's a possibility the Iran goat rodeo will give us a Democratic majority in the House. (If this latest fevered round of gerrymanders don't work)
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Based on current popularity and polls, if the Dems don't flip the House in November, I can't see that they ever will again. They would surely never regain power in those states that have gerrymandered, so never be able to reverse it. So, if the gerrymandering succeeds for the GOP, it would lock in those changes, those votes, for the forseeable future. Not a good prospect. :/
 
What seems to have happened is that after a French flagged vessel trying to traverse the Strait was hit by an Iranian missile, shipowners have concluded the US does in fact not have the means to assure the safety of transiting vessels.

Approx 4 hours after the hit on this vessel, the "pause" was announced by Trump, accompanied by the usual blood-curdling threats to make it look as if it is he that in control.

Timeline here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6p5q2dx1po
 
exchemist said:
What seems to have happened is that after a French flagged vessel trying to traverse the Strait was hit by an Iranian missile, shipowners have concluded the US does in fact not have the means to assure the safety of transiting vessels.

Approx 4 hours after the hit on this vessel, the "pause" was announced by Trump, accompanied by the usual blood-curdling threats to make it look as if it is he that in control.

Timeline here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6p5q2dx1po
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What would it take to force the Iranian regime to stop controlling the passage of shipping off its coast?

If US cannot do it then can it be done if China joins the effort?

Ir is this purely in the gift of the Iranian regime so that they will cooperate but only if the terms of an overall agreement are acceptable ?(or if there is an uprising leading to a complete reshuffle of the pack)

Could US have forced the regime to cave but was unwilling to force the issue because the war is unpopular at home(and abroad but do they care?) and would endure electoral defeat in October if pursued ?
 
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geordief said:
What w
What would it take to force the Iranian regime to stop controlling the passage of shipping off its coast?

If US cannot do it then can it be done if China joins the effort?

Ir is this purely in the gift of the Iranian regime so that they will cooperate but only if the terms of an overall agreement are acceptable ?(or if there is an uprising leading to a complete reshuffle of the pack)

Could US have forced the regime to cave but was unwilling to force the issue because the war is unpopular at home(and abroad but do they care?) and would endure electoral defeat in October if pursued ?
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I don't think forcing them is an option at all, frankly. Trying to coerce them has been Trump's blunder from the start. Trump only understands coercion. He's just like Putin in that respect.

I think it needs negotiation. The Iranians will realise that the longer this goes on the more damage it does to the prospect of a comfortable future modus vivendi with their Gulf neighbours. They will also realise that workarounds will start to be developed, both short term and long term. So the value of their weapon will decline if they over-use it. therefore I am sure they will be open to proposals to resolve this. But negotiation involves concessions by both parties. This is something the author of "The Art of the Deal" has apparently never understood-_O. Durrh. And the fact is they have lost a lot of people - and a lot of infrastructure which it will cost them to replace. So I see them as looking for a financial element, either a fee for passage of the Strait or the unfreezing of assets held by the US. If Trump continues to demand total capitulation, in the form of compliance with all his demands, they will tell him to fuck off.
 
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James R said:
Operation Epic Fury had to end, because it has become an illegal war in the absence of approval by Congress (which hasn't given it). The 60 day window in which the executive can prosecute a war without approval has passed.

Project Freedom is obviously a completely different thing, unrelated to Operation Epic Fury, don't you know. If Project Freedom turns into an armed conflict, it will be a new armed conflict, and no doubt the US administration will claim that the 60 day window in which it can conduct a war without Congressional approval is a new 60 day window, because it's a whole new war.
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Stay tuned for the epic Furious Free Speech..
 
Tiassa said:
Maybe we should just apologize for '53.

That would be a place to start.
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That would be polite and then they could apologize to the UK for nationalizing oil without fair compensation and then they could shake hands and this would all be over.
 
Addendum - had a fantasy in my teen years about ET visitors who, after delicate negotiations with the governments of Earth, realize we are a race of belligerent fuckheads and use superior technology to covertly replace all the WG U-235 or Pu-239 in warheads with carefully doctored lead. (And of course remove all the accessible ores for making more WG materials) For a while (in the fantasy), no one notices and the structure of deterrence and MAD continues intact. Then later, I imagined techs assigned to warhead upgrades, down there in the silo or sub or wherever, and cries of "WTAF??" (Or a full-scale nuclear war with, well, no detonations, missiles missing cities due to the weight differential, and perhaps some startled cows and small holes in cornfields so on...)
 
Tiassa said:
Maybe we should just apologize for '53.

That would be a place to start.
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Lovely to imagine Herr Turnip (an aneurysm, perhaps?) ever apologizing for anything. It's akin to imagining unicorns farting rainbow jellybeans in a palace composed of hugs and no corners.
 
sculptor said:
How about:
Just give Iran a nuclear weapon and take the rest of the day off?
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How should we "deliver" it - Gravity Bomb, ICBM, IRBM, SLBM, ALCM, SLCM, GLCM...?
:tongue:

Too bad The Ossiah had the boys dismantle our last 9 Megaton jobby. Just what the doctor ordered for that "One Big Glow".
 
Iran was not using the petrodollar system, which helps preserve the dollar's global dominance, keeps the demand for the dollar high, channels foreign wealth into US assets, keeps US borrowing costs low, gives the US the ability to run large trade deficits without destabilizing the currency, and strengthens US geopolitical power, before the current war, due to US sanctions and its own geopolitical strategy, so that may have contributed to the war.
 
Given Orango-tan's long expressed antipathy towards green fuels and tech, it's satisfying to watch as his idiot war undermines his own agenda. Companies and governments are looking at major shifts away from fossil fuels as the Hornuz choke drags on.

apnews.com

Shipping industry fears fuel shortages as Iran war squeezes bunker fuel supply

The global maritime industry is facing a looming shortage of the fuel that powers ships as the Iran war chokes off a key shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz.
apnews.com apnews.com

High prices are also driving more interest in green fuels, said Håkan Agnevall of marine and energy technology manufacturer Wartsila.
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Though U.S. President Donald Trump derailed efforts to shift global shipping away from fossil fuels in 2025, Agnevall said the current conflict could prompt strategically minded companies and countries to renew their push toward greener alternatives.
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Code Crafter said:
Iran was not using the petrodollar system, which helps preserve the dollar's global dominance, keeps the demand for the dollar high, channels foreign wealth into US assets, keeps US borrowing costs low, gives the US the ability to run large trade deficits without destabilizing the currency, and strengthens US geopolitical power, before the current war, due to US sanctions and its own geopolitical strategy, so that may have contributed to the war.
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How would declaring war on Iran alter that?
 
exchemist said:
How would declaring war on Iran alter that?
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I do not think declaring war on Iran would necessarily alter Iran's geopolitical strategy, but it may have been punishment for finding a way around US sanctions by not using the petrodollar for trading oil, along with their nuclear ambitions.
 
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