War on Iran
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
That would be very funny - and would have India gnashing its teeth. But I doubt Munir is in the running. He's got a war going with Afghanistan (The Taliban really are Frankenstein's monster!) and there are still frequent border skirmishes with India over Kashmir.The bigger deal here is that, if it all goes well, Munir may well win the next Nobel Peace Prize!!For helping stop the war started by the one person on earth who covets it more than anyone else.
Ah, I love the smell of irony in the morning.
But standing back a bit, it's great to see countries in Asia stepping up to take the lead, now that the USA has declined into an agent of destabilisation rather than being the world's policeman as it was for so much of the post-war era.
Anyhoo - apparently the ceasefire was after Trump "accepted" (presumably only for purposes of discussing further) the 10-point plan that Iranian's submitted to the US via Pakistan. Iran is claiming that the US has "agreed to" all of these:
1. Commitment to non-agression
2. Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Acceptabce of uranium enrichment
4. Lifting of all primary sanctions
5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
8. Payment of compensation to Iran
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon
But, as said, my guess is that they've been accepted only so far as they've accepted them as a starting point for actual negotiations during the ceasefire. Given that Israel have refused 10, and are continuing with their invasion/attack/war in Lebanon, it's clearly not a done deal.
Maybe this now officially starts the "negotiations", during which both sides will refrain from further aggression, and Trump now getting the chance to push the deadline further and further back "while negotiations are ongoing". There's no way the US will ultimately agree to these 10 points, especially without Israel also being on board, but, well, it's a start.
So what has the war, the deaths of thousands, hundred+ children, significant damage to Iran, actually achieved, that could not have been achieved through negotiation from the outset? Well, currently, it has strengthened Iran's position, tightening a grip on the Strait of Hormuz, on the world's oil supply, that they never really exhibited before but have now been emboldened to flex. Sure, the personnel at the top of Iran's regime have gone... to be replaced by members of the same regime, who now also have the US to blame for the deaths of so many Iranians.
But it has given Trump a repreive from being asked about the Trump-Epstein files, at least. So there's that. And it has given members of his inner circle the ability to make money of his announcements. And now he'll spin it as a bigly success, a win that no other President could have achieved. They wanted to, but they didn't. Only Trump did. And look! Gas prices are coming down! Trump said that they would! Trump never lies!
1. Commitment to non-agression
2. Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Acceptabce of uranium enrichment
4. Lifting of all primary sanctions
5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
8. Payment of compensation to Iran
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon
But, as said, my guess is that they've been accepted only so far as they've accepted them as a starting point for actual negotiations during the ceasefire. Given that Israel have refused 10, and are continuing with their invasion/attack/war in Lebanon, it's clearly not a done deal.
Maybe this now officially starts the "negotiations", during which both sides will refrain from further aggression, and Trump now getting the chance to push the deadline further and further back "while negotiations are ongoing". There's no way the US will ultimately agree to these 10 points, especially without Israel also being on board, but, well, it's a start.
So what has the war, the deaths of thousands, hundred+ children, significant damage to Iran, actually achieved, that could not have been achieved through negotiation from the outset? Well, currently, it has strengthened Iran's position, tightening a grip on the Strait of Hormuz, on the world's oil supply, that they never really exhibited before but have now been emboldened to flex. Sure, the personnel at the top of Iran's regime have gone... to be replaced by members of the same regime, who now also have the US to blame for the deaths of so many Iranians.
But it has given Trump a repreive from being asked about the Trump-Epstein files, at least. So there's that. And it has given members of his inner circle the ability to make money of his announcements. And now he'll spin it as a bigly success, a win that no other President could have achieved. They wanted to, but they didn't. Only Trump did. And look! Gas prices are coming down! Trump said that they would! Trump never lies!
Pinball1970
Valued Senior Member
Hopefully no more than that.
Is the lesson that America's military is no match for asymmetric warfare?
It costs too much to have a prolonged exchange with weapons that cost a fraction of their expensive getup..
I have heard that this ceasefire is a tacit admission that stocks are running low...
Who does this ceasefire benefit militarily suppose the two sides resume the conflict in short order?
If this is not resolved very quickly then I assume it will be a vote loser for the Reps in the mid terms as we all know that the voters like a winner and this can't be spun as a win.
It costs too much to have a prolonged exchange with weapons that cost a fraction of their expensive getup..
I have heard that this ceasefire is a tacit admission that stocks are running low...
Who does this ceasefire benefit militarily suppose the two sides resume the conflict in short order?
If this is not resolved very quickly then I assume it will be a vote loser for the Reps in the mid terms as we all know that the voters like a winner and this can't be spun as a win.
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
It seems this 10 point plan was put forward by Iran 10 days ago as a condition for ceasing hostilities, only for the American side to reject it out of hand. The only thing that seems to have changed, therefore, is that the US, er, now accepts it at least as a basis on which to open negotiations.Anyhoo - apparently the ceasefire was after Trump "accepted" (presumably only for purposes of discussing further) the 10-point plan that Iranian's submitted to the US via Pakistan. Iran is claiming that the US has "agreed to" all of these:
1. Commitment to non-agression
2. Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Acceptabce of uranium enrichment
4. Lifting of all primary sanctions
5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
8. Payment of compensation to Iran
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon
But, as said, my guess is that they've been accepted only so far as they've accepted them as a starting point for actual negotiations during the ceasefire. Given that Israel have refused 10, and are continuing with their invasion/attack/war in Lebanon, it's clearly not a done deal.
Maybe this now officially starts the "negotiations", during which both sides will refrain from further aggression, and Trump now getting the chance to push the deadline further and further back "while negotiations are ongoing". There's no way the US will ultimately agree to these 10 points, especially without Israel also being on board, but, well, it's a start.
So what has the war, the deaths of thousands, hundred+ children, significant damage to Iran, actually achieved, that could not have been achieved through negotiation from the outset? Well, currently, it has strengthened Iran's position, tightening a grip on the Strait of Hormuz, on the world's oil supply, that they never really exhibited before but have now been emboldened to flex. Sure, the personnel at the top of Iran's regime have gone... to be replaced by members of the same regime, who now also have the US to blame for the deaths of so many Iranians.
But it has given Trump a repreive from being asked about the Trump-Epstein files, at least. So there's that. And it has given members of his inner circle the ability to make money of his announcements. And now he'll spin it as a bigly success, a win that no other President could have achieved. They wanted to, but they didn't. Only Trump did. And look! Gas prices are coming down! Trump said that they would! Trump never lies!
So it was TACO Tuesday all right. And indeed, as I suspected, all the bluster about destroying a civilisation was utter bullshit to obscure the fact that Trump was about to agree a ceasefire on identical terms to those he had previously rejected. Iran offered nothing new, it seems.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
It will be spun though. Most US voters are notoriously vague about foreign affairs and given the demography of MAGA I think it a safe bet most of those won’t have clue, nor will they care. It’s the price of gas-o-leen for their enormous trerks they worry about.
Retrospectively redefining the war aims will be the first thing.
Pinball1970
Valued Senior Member
Good. Better than the alternative.
The bigger deal here is that, if it all goes well, Munir may well win the next Nobel Peace Prize!!
Yah, that's the caustic twist -- Munir adds at least two to his list of diplomacy feats.
Of course, Trump knew full well what was in the works from Sunday onward, as indicated by his brown-nosing the new command in a back alley way amidst the other hyped-up bluster and ersatz suspense: "Now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”"
And although negotiations will extend beyond Friday, everything is more or less fitting into the six-week max time frame that Trump was wildly hand-waving about during the early days of the war -- sometimes declaring four, sometimes five, but six usually depicted as the ultimate wall.
But there are inner struggles going on with regard to which camp is actually in charge of Iran, so there's a possibility that unchecked attacks continuing hither and thither could derail things (and even zealous Israel responding in an impulsive manner). But any lingering and sporadic "noise" hopefully won't have a significant effect.
_
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Certainly. Gives those poor Iranians a chance to bury their dead and get some sleep at last. But we are not out of the woods. My guess is Netanyahu will try to sabotage either the ceasefire itself or whatever negotiated settlement may start to emerge.
Given that one of Iran's ceasefire terms was a cessation of hostilities against their partners in Lebanon, it seems they're not too happy with Israel basically sticking two fingers up and continuing their invasion of Lebanon. Trump now seems to be suggesting that Lebanon is a "separate skirmish"... but if Iran don't believe it is, how long is this supposed ceasefire going to last while Israel strut around with impunity?
Also, it seems that the ceasefire even with regard Iran is not particularly secure... Iran are claiming that Israel-US attacked an oil refinery on an island of theirs (Lavan) and possibly on another (Sirri), and in response Iran launched attacks against UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. So, all going well! It is thought... well, hoped would be a better choice of word... that this is due to the Iranian military being somewhat more distributed than it might usually be (no prizes for guessing why) and that these retaliatory attacks are from parts of the military that, almost literally, didn't get the memo. So, we shall see. But, yeah, all's well, surely?
www.aljazeera.com
Also, it seems that the ceasefire even with regard Iran is not particularly secure... Iran are claiming that Israel-US attacked an oil refinery on an island of theirs (Lavan) and possibly on another (Sirri), and in response Iran launched attacks against UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. So, all going well! It is thought... well, hoped would be a better choice of word... that this is due to the Iranian military being somewhat more distributed than it might usually be (no prizes for guessing why) and that these retaliatory attacks are from parts of the military that, almost literally, didn't get the memo. So, we shall see. But, yeah, all's well, surely?
S Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain report attacks after Iran-US truce
Several strikes reported across the Gulf region hours after the US and Iran announce a ceasefire for two weeks.
Speaking of which, looks like it the deal might be done already, thanks to "Beeb-Force"...
Iran BLOCKS Strait of Hormuz as fragile ceasefire on brink after Israel attacks
Seems to me that Iran got it worse even if they did have a nuclear arsenal. Have to figure if Iran ever nuked Israel that they would get the same treatment from either Israel or USA. Rumor is Israel has them. Fear of mutual assured destruction, aptly shortened to MAD, is what keeps the peace. Difficult quandary, you have the weapon to wipe out an opponent but have to take it on the chin because you can’t use it. Even if you believe one side is run by madmen bent on martyrdom with nukes, you have to tread carefully. You can only go so far. Maybe there’s a few more degrees of destruction left to go and Trump is in that position right now. If he goes in and kicks the living daylights out of Iran, kills every IRGC, every Hamas fighter, every Houthi or all the belligerents in the ME then he’d probably be aware there are no nukes to fear.
The crypto-European imperialist, colonizing Zionists just have that undying and compulsive need to take out the Shia pet (Hezbollah).
Chia pet jingle
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TheVat
Valued Senior Member
Beebs has declared today his intent to invade Iran and grab their uranium, if they don't march it all out to him like good little boys. His blowing up the ceasefire is just setting up the Iranian recalcitrance which will leverage his invasion. Beebs wants peace the way tigers want vegetarianism.
From Truth Social, Trump's own social media farm:
Ultra_MAGA_King: You’re utterly destroying your presidency with this nonsense. It’s probably too late to course correct at this point. A shameful waste of a great start.
Another poster: Mr. President you are losing me as a supporter with this kind of behavior. I have supported you for so long and I am just to my point where I am ready to wash my hands of supporting you. I have been put through a lot of garbage for supporting you since 2016.
Another poster: Even if it was a joke, you’re actually so immature it’s sad and I voted for you twice, and stick up for you all day long on Facebook.
Another poster: I don’t support prez yahoo or this kind of talk. It’s Easter. What’s wrong with you? I voted x3 for you. WTH is wrong with you.
No one could have seen this coming!!
Ultra_MAGA_King: You’re utterly destroying your presidency with this nonsense. It’s probably too late to course correct at this point. A shameful waste of a great start.
Another poster: Mr. President you are losing me as a supporter with this kind of behavior. I have supported you for so long and I am just to my point where I am ready to wash my hands of supporting you. I have been put through a lot of garbage for supporting you since 2016.
Another poster: Even if it was a joke, you’re actually so immature it’s sad and I voted for you twice, and stick up for you all day long on Facebook.
Another poster: I don’t support prez yahoo or this kind of talk. It’s Easter. What’s wrong with you? I voted x3 for you. WTH is wrong with you.
No one could have seen this coming!!
Oy Vey...
They better hope the Iranians can't build dirty bombs with the stuff. I mean - if they were going down in flames & had one last chance to add a little something special to the "finale rack"...
I am so tempted to go reply to every one of those posts with:
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"Bwwaaaa..." This is what you all voted for, remember?
Something something about "Drinking libtard tears" goes here...
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Into my "Leopards eating people's faces" file with every single one of you
