And another thing...
Show me a fuzzy photograph of a light in the sky and tell me you think it's an alien spaceship. I won't ever tell you, before you show me the photo, that your photograph can't possibly be an alien spaceship. You won't ever see me writing that alien spaceships can't possibly exist.
What I will do is that I'll take a good look at your photo and try to think of as many reasons as I can as to why it might not be an alien spaceship. If there's other evidence available, I'll also probe the strength of that evidence.
I should have said, also, that if you're a UFO believer, you really should be doing exactly this,
before bringing your fuzzy photograph to me.
That is, you should take a good look at your photo, think carefully about your experience (both the UFO experience and all your relevant past experience) and try to come up with as many "mundane" explanations for your evidence as you can, if for no other reason than that you know this is what
I'll do as soon as you show me your fuzzy photo. You ought to be as ready as you can be for all the sensible and obvious questions I'm going to put to you about that photo and the circumstances in it was taken.
If you
haven't done your homework in advance, that ought to suggest to you that jumping to the conclusion that your fuzzy photo can only be a photograph of an alien spacecraft is likely to be a bad idea. And if
that thought doesn't occur to you, maybe it's time for you to explore in greater depth what it means to thinking critically about things.
In the philosophy of science, this sort of type of exercise is called an attempted falsification. The idea is to try to
disprove your preferred hypothesis (in this case, that there's an alien spaceship that you photographed).
One caveat: if you
fail to prove that the photo is of something
other than an alien spaceship, that does not
demonstrate that you have a photo of an alien spaceship. It just means that you've made some useful progress towards a positive ID. The thought that "I can't think of anything this could be, apart from an alien spaceship" is a form of
argument from ignorance. The point is: there might well be
many things that might explain the image in the photo, but you just haven't thought of them or come across those ideas yet.
It is important not to jump to conclusions.
Suppose you show me a fuzzy photograph of an animal and claim it is a photo of a horse, but you're not sure. It is important, for some reason, for us to try to verify your claim. I would start by looking at the features that appear to support the hypothesis that there's a horse in the photo. Oh look! I can see four legs, and what looks like brown skin, and I think I can make out some hooves. The head is a bit fuzzy, but it seems like it's approximately horse-head shaped. Yes, this definitely looks like a horse, at first glance.
So, is it a horse? We're not done yet. What
else could it be, other than a horse? Could it be a donkey, perhaps? Well, looking at the photograph again, I can't really see anything that clearly says "horse" rather than "donkey". Where does that leave us, then?
Can we say the photo is of a horse? No, we can't, because it could be a donkey. Can we say it's a donkey, then? No, we can't. It could still be a horse. Can we say it's either a horse or a donkey, then?
No, we can't. Almost certainly, there are other animals that we haven't thought of yet, and the photo might be equally consistent with one of those.
In this example, it seems like it's time to stop referring to your photo as the photo of a horse. The best we've come up with is that it's a UGP - an Unidentified Ground-based Phenomenon of some kind.
"But I photographed it at a horse-riding school!" you say. Well, why didn't you say that in the first place? Now we have some additional data that we can feed into the identification problem. Where is this riding school? Does it keep donkeys, or just horses? Any exotic species?
You probably think this is silly, at this point. Why not just take your (the eyewitness's) word for it that it's a photograph of a horse? Because
you said, right at the start, that you didn't know for sure what it was. Remember? We're trying to solve the mystery. If you didn't want my help to try to solve the mystery, why did you bring it to me in the first place?
Suppose I've never seen a horse, and you want to use this photo to try to convince me that horses are real. Is the photo alone going to convince me that horses are real? No -
especially if I already know that donkeys are real. You're telling me there's an animal that looks quite like a donkey, but isn't one? Well, maybe there is, but this one fuzzy photo is unlikely to convince me of that. (Compare, by the way: a fuzzy UFO FLIR photograph of something that looks a lot like a regular jet exhaust is unlikely to convince me, on its own, that the photo shows an alien spacecraft.) Why would I create a whole new category of creatures I believe in, based on this fuzzy photo that already looks a lot like something I already know about?
Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe horses
are real, after all. (Notice, I never said they can't exist.) But, so far, you have failed to convince me with your fuzzy photo and your stories of supposed horse-riding schools. But I'm open to finding (or being shown) new evidence. I can't say for sure that your photo
doesn't show a horse; I'm just not yet convinced that it does. I need better evidence.
If you really
want to help me to recognise the existence of horses, what's your next move? I'd say it's obvious:
go out into the world and gather some higher-quality evidence. I'm not closed minded. I'm open to the possibility that this whole horse caper is a thing. I'm a reasonable person. Present some reasonable evidence, and I'm quite ready to believe you, I assure you.
What do you think my attitude will be if you proceed to present me with 10 more fuzzy and indistinct photographs of supposed "horses", to try to make your case for the existence of horses? I'd say, you might manage to marginally shift my willingness to accept your claim, but I'm still probably going to be skeptical (especially given those donkeys I already know about).
Mind you, your whole "horse" thing doesn't sound unreasonable, on the face of it. After all, I know that horse-like creatures exist on Earth already. It's not like you're asking me to believe in a tentacled monster with four legs and hooves; I have no experience with anything like that. Your "horse" doesn't need to break the laws of physics. It is at least plausible that it might exist. It's not an extraordinary claim you're making.
It's not that I wouldn't be ready to accept the existence of the tentacled monster, either. But it's likely that I'd be harder to pursuade, in that case. It could well be that the more extraordinary the claim, the stronger the evidence I might need, to be persuaded. Fancy that!