The treaty of Brest-Litovsk (1918)

[Undecided]

I want to start a discussion on the treaty that never was. Just some background, the Czarist Russian Empire was by far the largest power in the world at the time of wars start. In 1913 the Russian empire had a population 156 million people, with a economy that was worth $134 billion*, in comparison to Germany's $237 billion* economy. Russia was at the time not an industrial giant per se, she was mainly a agrarian economy by that time. France had very large interests in Russia since she was the countries largest investor, and they had an alliance btwn the two. By summer 1914 the situation was dire to say the least, the Assignation of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo, and with the almost relentless advance of declarations of war prompted WWI. The Russians at first scored victories against the Germans in Prussia, but by the end of Russian involvement of the war the Germans had gone so far as to the Sea of Azov in the South, and Estonia in the north. When the Czar was overthrown, and there was the interim period of political instability, Lenin and the gang declared that they were going to sue for peace with Germany. For Germany this was excellent news, with about a million men on the Eastern front being freed up so they could concentrate of the Western front, and re-vitalize advances against the Franco-Anglo alliance. The Germans, Austro-Hungarians, Ottomans, and Bulgarians were on what was called the "Quadruple Alliance” and Russia a defeated power in the midst of a civil war on the other. What interested me were the territorial concessions of the Russians to the Germans, and Austrio-Hungarians:

Article III.
The territories lying to the west of the line agreed upon by the contracting parties which formerly belonged to Russia, will no longer be subject to Russian sovereignty; the line agreed upon is traced on the map submitted as an essential part of this treaty of peace. The exact fixation of the line will be established by a Russo-German commission.

No obligations whatever toward Russia shall devolve upon the territories referred to, arising from the fact that they formerly belonged to Russia.

Russia refrains from all interference in the internal relations of these territories. Germany and Austria-Hungary purpose to determine the future status of these territories in agreement with their population.

Which I found to be very interesting, let's look at this within contest. Here is a map of the lands that were supposed to secceded to the Alliance:

Map

The area in the light orange would be annexed to the alliance powers. Now let's deal with the area in Europe first:

Article VI.
Russia obligates herself to conclude peace at once with the Ukrainian People's Republic and to recognize the treaty of peace between that State and the Powers of the Quadruple Alliance. The Ukrainian territory will, without delay, be cleared of Russian troops and the Russian Red Guard. Russia is to put an end to all agitation or propaganda against the Government or the public institutions of the Ukrainian People's Republic.

Esthonia and Livonia will likewise, without delay, be cleared of Russian troops and the Russian Red Guard. The eastern boundary of Esthonia runs, in general along the river Narwa. The eastern boundary of Livonia crosses, in general, lakes Peipus and Pskow, to the southwestern corner of the latter, then across Lake Luban in the direction of Livenhof on the Dvina. Esthonia and Livonia will be occupied by a German police force until security is insured by proper national institutions and until public order has been established. Russia will liberate at once all arrested or deported inhabitants of Esthonia and Livonia, and insures the safe return of all deported Esthonians and Livonians.

Finland and the Aaland Islands will immediately be cleared of Russian troops and the Russian Red Guard, and the Finnish ports of the Russian fleet and of the Russian naval forces. So long as the ice prevents the transfer of warships into Russian ports, only limited forces will remain on board the warships. Russia is to put an end to all agitation or propaganda against the Government or the public institutions of Finland.

The fortresses built on the Aaland Islands are to be removed as soon as possible. As regards the permanent non-fortification of these islands as well as their further treatment in respect to military technical navigation matters, a special agreement is to be concluded between Germany, Finland, Russia, and Sweden; there exists an understanding to the effect that, upon Germany's desire, still other countries bordering upon the Baltic Sea would be consulted in this matter.

For a time after the war ended, and the after the treaty of Versailles the Ukraine was an independent state, and many states in the Caucasus as well. They were re-absorbed back into the new USSR, but it does indicate to me that there was at least some seriousness behind this. Now the first part of the quote speaks of the Ukraine, I personally believe that Germany would not respect Ukraine’s right to be independent. Rather you would have seen one of three things imo:

i) A totally absorbed Ukraine into Germany, and Austria-Hungary.
ii) Partial absorption.
iii) Ukraine imperialized into a customs union with Germany.

Germany could not have given up on such a prize that was the Ukraine, a large able workforce, on the most productive land in Europe. The Ukraine would have easily supplied Germany with most if not all of its basic grain needs, and even exportation of grains for income. Also Germany would gain vital Black Sea ports, which would challenge any Russian influence left there, and block British attempts to secure trade in that region, it would have made Romania either collapse, or would make Romania into a part of the Austrian empire, or part of the custom union. It would have allowed Bulgaria to imperialize parts of Romania, and would have given Bulgaria the impetus to take over Macedonia. With the Austrian forces all but defeated at the time, if the treaty lasted long enough, possibly a re-invigorated offence in the Balkans could have stifled Serbia, and Greece.

- About the Baltic States, the Germans IMO would no doubt absorb those states into Germany. They would simply be the extension of Prussia, allowing Germany to finally end the Russian naval menace in the Baltic, allowing very easily blocking the Gulf of Finland, and could easily starve Petrograd into submission, in any future military action.

- Finland it would seem would be spared from German domination, but it would still be subject to a German customs union. It would serve as a front to check Russian influence on the Baltic, and Scandinavia.

Article V.
Russia will, without delay, carry out the full demobilization of her army inclusive of those units recently organized by the present Government. Furthermore, Russia will either bring her warships into russian ports and there detain them until the day of the conclusion of a general peace, or disarm them forthwith. Warships of the States which continue in the state of war with the Powers of the Quadruple Alliance, in so far as they are within Russian sovereignty, will be treated as Russian warships.

The barred zone in the Arctic Ocean continues as such until the conclusion of a general peace. In the Baltic sea, and, as far as Russian power extends within the Black sea, removal of the mines will be proceeded with at once. Merchant navigation within these maritime regions is free and will be resumed at once. Mixed commissions will be organized to formulate the more detailed regulations, especially to inform merchant ships with regard to restricted lanes. The navigation lanes are always to be kept free from floating mines.

As seen in this portion of the treaty the Germans wanted the Russians to become inept in terms of her naval power. Russia's naval power was not a big aspect of her involvement in either WWI, or II. But still Russia's potential naval strength, combined with British would have seriously hampered German hegemony. In order to secure safe trade and the customs union Germany would have had to secure the Baltic and the Black seas. Also it had to secure that her allies, principally the Ottomans would be safe from further Russian aggression in the future. It is obvious that the Germans were interested in one major thing, trade and commerce.

Outside Europe Russia also had to concede more land:

Article IV.
As soon as a general peace is concluded and Russian demobilization is carried out completely Germany will evacuate the territory lying to the east of the line designated in paragraph 1 of Article III, in so far as Article IV does not determine otherwise.

Russia will do all within her power to insure the immediate evacuation of the provinces of eastern Anatolia and their lawful return to Turkey.

The districts of Erdehan, Kars, and Batum will likewise and without delay be cleared of the russian troops. Russia will not interfere in the reorganization of the national and international relations of these districts, but leave it to the population of these districts, to carry out this reorganization in agreement with the neighboring States, especially with Turkey.

The Ottomans would be freed from Russian forces in her Western flank which was at the time collapsing. Also it seems by the map presented that the Southern Caucasus' would have been annexed to the Ottoman Empire. This would only further secure the Alliances power, and security.

Article VII.
In view of the fact that Persia and Afghanistan are free and independent States, the contracting parties obligate themselves to respect the political and economic independence and the territorial integrity of these states.

Also Russia's zones of influence which she shared with the British since 1907 in both Persia (Iran) and Afghanistan would be given up.

The treaty if implemented would have made Germany the preeminent world power that would easily crush the French and Italian forces. It would have saved the fledging Ottoman and Austrian empires that were in deadly need of a face saving victory. Germany would have a solid customs union in the centre of Europe which would allow Germany a great amount sway. Russia would be tamed into a corner, and would have lost its great power status. I but it is possible that the Soviet economy would have benefited from a huge industrial power who would have still needed to import large amounts of minerals and other natural resources. The problem would arise on the minority populations of Eastern Europe, would they still allow themselves to live under Germanic rule? In the Ottoman Empire, by this time the war was lost to the Arabs and the Ottoman Empire couldn't really wage a counter-offensive against the Arab-British advance. Although at the end it is still questionable if the Germans could have won in the Western Front, but this is assuming that the West would somehow been pacified in Germany's favour. There are theories on what would happen on Germany's Western Front, but that's another thread.

The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, a treaty that never was.


*million 1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars