The misleading doom & gloom of premature forecasts like this (with respect to Biden buff pessimists)


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Cheer up. Don't buy into the despairing hype of robo-voiced updates, unless you enjoy some fabricated last-minute sensation of eluding the jaws of defeat (that was never a valid, dark prospect to begin with).

2024 Election Map Based On the Latest Poll From All 50 States

Takes into account RFK Jr.'s effect on both candidates. But the conclusion can't factor in future aspects like:

  • the oncoming incumbency surge that a sitting POTUS usually enjoys
  • the incredibly amped-up media onslaught against Trump ensuing in late summer (that pales beside the current courtroom focus)
  • fiery outrage (activism) on campuses and streets unleashed circa the same period

And most importantly, the covert reality element that can't be processed by a formal evaluation:

  • A significant percentage of those going Trump in the sample polling data are merely asserting their disgust with the choices for this election, and dissatisfaction with affairs in general. They would otherwise be unable to indicate that anger if revealing that they're actually going to vote for Biden when the real event comes, or not vote at all. Since the latter honesty would be interpreted as the very opposite by what they deem a vainglorious, sermonizing establishment.

video link --> 2024 Election Map Based On the Latest Poll From All 50 States
Your point is? It's a close election, it could go either way. Most people aren't too up or down regarding how it turns out since it's not going to be great either way.
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Your point is?

The point is the title: The applicable distressed members of society need not wallow in such an unwarranted degree of panic.

Bill Maher: People come up to me a lot these days and they say,

"Bill, what are we going to do if he wins?"

They didn't even ever have to say who, I know who they mean.

[...] I don't know what we'll do if he wins, but my guess is we'll keep on living.

It's a close election, it could go either way.

And it's several months before the election. The choir shouldn't even have to fall back on faith that the collective Party apparatus (academic world, journalism, organized movements, entertainment industry, etc) that laid waste to him last time, will accomplish such again. It's a matter of actual ample competence and overwhelming pervasive influence, not hope. Toss in the legal system itself on this go around (at least in terms of potentially impotent drama).

Most people aren't too up or down regarding how it turns out since it's not going to be great either way.

I seriously doubt the soapbox rank and file on each side is apathetic about the outcome. But that there is a middling population still lingering about that is dissatisfied with the situation either way, is precisely what I expect makes some of Trump's bandwagon numbers illusory or inflated. Again, one can't convey that nausea about the state of things by revealing to a head counter that one will ultimately relent and vote for Biden come 11-5-24.

CONGREGATION MEMBER: "Yeah, that's right. I'm voting for Satan. That's how I feel about the situation with this church and the direction of its mission."

AFTER THE FACT: "What happened to all that contrarian resolve, sister?"

CONGREGATION MEMBER: "Ah... I just couldn't cash it at the end. Reality got in the way." Kicks a rock in frustration.
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MagaSkeptic: Wildly skewered selectivity and biased interpretation of the scene at Crotona Park in the South Bronx. Insane reports of between 4,000 and 30,000 in attendance. (More like a fraction of 3,000!)

The video is another poorly designed, slipshod attempt to make you fret. Biden's intellectual supporters and loyal, downtrodden mascots are immune to these cheap antics and fabrications that appeal to Trump's trailer camp crowd. But just in case you are one of those rare and susceptible low-wattage bulbs among the Incumbent's faithful...

Trust in Allan Lichtman's system (The Keys to the White House), which predicted Trump in 2016:

Staten Island Live: The man who correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, thinks 2024 will go to Joe Biden. At least, as of now. He won’t fully make the call on the next president until August. But, he told veteran reporter Chris Cillizza, he’s heavily leaning toward Biden by using his 13 true/false model that’s worked 90% of the time. “I have said that much would have to go wrong in the next several months for Biden to lose reelection...”

Biden is going to win, he's going to leave DT in the dust.

He scores a high ten,
Sharp as a tack,
Never looking back,
Zooming past: its Biden!

Like the bromide goes: Don't worry. Be Happy.

video link --> Bronx Trump rally. Unseen footage.
Peter Zeihan: Can former President Trump 'make felonies great again'?

VIDEO EXCERPT: Everyone seems to have forgotten that the 10% of the electorate who are Independents are just kind of nauseated by the whole thing. Independents have decided every presidential election since the early 1960s, and they are not going to vote for somebody who now has 34 felonies under his belt. So as far as I'm concerned, this percentage has decided the election. There are other reasons to think that Trump was already in trouble, but this really makes it impossible for him to win. Uh, assuming of course that Biden doesn't die.

video link --> Can former President Trump 'make felonies great again'?
And finally, the ultimate coup de grace of Trump's chances, if you're an unwarrantedly nervous or pessimistic Biden buff.
- - - - - - - - -

video link: Why Trump will lead Republicans to historic defeat

VIDEO EXCERPTS (Peter Zeihan): The Republican alliance is not what it used to be. One of the reasons why the Republicans have always done well at the national level is that they've got a very tight coalition. And the factions within their coalition don't fight.

[...] Democrats [in contrast] are very la dah. You've got your coastal urban elites, you've got your minorities, you've got organized labor -- and they fight among themselves all the time. They may have more voters, but whenever an issue comes up -- a real issue, not just charisma, then the factions start fighting. And some of them just won't show up to vote. So the Republicans tend to win.

What Donald Trump has done is he has broken up that Republican alliance, and he set them off against each other. He ejected the business community from Congress, and he encouraged fights among the social conservatives, and other factions.

[...] Now they won't even talk to one another, so you can't get all the Republicans to show up. Since they have fewer numbers they're automatically going to lose to the Democrats.

Everyone seems to have forgotten what happened in the midterms [2022]. There was supposed to be a red wave. (US midterms: Why a Republican 'wave' never happened ..... How independent voters saved Democrats in 2022 ..... GOP report on 2022 election struggles)

[...] What happened was Donald Trump told Independent voters that the general election doesn't matter. Primaries are the only thing that matters [...???...] Republicans have never won a national election unless they've carried the Independents two to one.

[...] I think what we're going to see is Trump may be capturing 10 to 12 states, none of them big -- not counting Texas. And leading the Republicans into the second or third worst electoral outcome in American history. Which is going to force a rationalization of the party in some way...

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Thousands gather outside White House to protest war in Gaza
“I regret everything,” Dania Dabdoub said of her 2020 vote, adding that she “will never vote for him again.”​

Don't worry. In terms of their majorities, these politically monolithic population groups -- the putative "mascots of the Party" -- have no one else to vote for (that would have a chance of winning, anyway). Granted, withholding a vote might hurt the DP candidate in some election years of the past, but this will be counterbalanced by those non-MAGA Republicans and Independents also disillusioned by Trump.

INTRO: Currently, DC metro police are on high alert as hundreds of thousands of pro-Palestine protesters and activists have gathered outside the White House in Washington, DC. As They light up smoke bombs and flares as they protest for Palestine, planning to surround the White House. Police have deployed mace into the surrounding crowds, and crews have erected a large anti-scale fence around the White House in anticipation of this weekend's Gaza protest.​
Who cares that the mainstream media obfuscated Biden's mental decline up until after the debate? Be grateful, it's one of many approaches that helped get JB to this point in the campaign, and now he's not stepping down. So that November win is still on tap, despite this new round of groundless doom and gloom that his pessimistic devotees keep rousting up, as they fidget, pacing back and forth.

Biden will be revitalized by the September 10 debate. This time, he'll surely be equipped with cognitive meds and prescribed stimulants, an audio receiving device worn around the shoulders that conducts sound to the ears through bone structure, and weeks of prepping -- rather than brashly winging it in the raw.

5 key takeaways from Joe Biden's interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos

INTRO: Joe Biden sat down for what was one of his most important interviews in the 2024 Presidential race on Friday. In the 22-minute interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos, the US President discussed various topics, including his CNN debate debacle. Here are the five key takeaways from Biden's high-stakes interview...


Biden blames ‘bad cold’ for poor performance

Only ‘Lord Almighty’ can get him off the race

Biden addresses New York Times poll

‘I get a full neurological test every day,’ Biden on taking a cognitive exam

Biden says he was distracted by Trump

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Peter Zeihan chiming in: The Senior Home Showdown: Delusional Biden vs. Demented Trump

VIDEO EXCERPTS: There are good days and there are bad days, but that's not what you need for a president. Joe Biden is already 81, the number of bad days eventually tends to overwhelm the number of good days, and he is no longer fit for office. He shouldn't be running for president, he shouldn't be president, and a vote for him is a vote against national stability in the United States. Let's talk about the other guy...

[...] Donald Trump has destroyed the Republican Party. He's purged of anyone who was against him. And the real break point was back in March when he took over the Republican National Committee and the first thing he did was purge anyone who had anything to do with polling or candidate selection or basically anyone who had any experience in politics. Basically replace them all with his flunkies. So Trump -- even if he dies tomorrow, will probably still be the Republican nominee this round. His grip on what's left of the Republican party is that firm.

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Forget stepping down. Biden is still the dragon slayer. Black and minority voters still hanging firm, despite whatever degree of under-60 white disloyalty (easily disaffected prima donnas).

VIDEO LINK: Poll Shows President Biden's Approval Rating Has Gone Up, Pollster Explains Why That Could Be

EXCERPT: His job approval rating increased by 2% over the past month from 37% to 39%.

Is there any indication of why that is?

We see that that's coming mostly from voters over the age of 60, from black voters, and minority voters overall. As well as Independents. So those are three groups that are certainly must-wins for the Biden campaign. I think that he should be happy with that.

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VIDEO EXCERPT: Everyone seems to have forgotten that the 10% of the electorate who are Independents are just kind of nauseated
43%, not 10. Never trust YT videos, without fact checking.

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43%, not 10. Never trust YT videos, without fact checking.

The 43% is kind of illusory, though -- and the US has a scrambled up political identity landscape in other ways. But I won't get into the conflicting voting habits of Hubby's relatives, or the branch of cousins he has in another state... ;)

(June 10, 2024) Why is it so hard to know how many independent voters there are?

EXCERPT: According to Gallup, political independents constituted the largest political bloc of voters in 2023, with an annual average of 43% of American voters claiming that label. [...But...] When those independents who report a lean toward a party are counted as supporters of that party, the overall proportion of independents is small – about 10% of the total electorate. That level has remained roughly constant since the 1950s. About two-thirds of independents lean toward one of the two major political parties’ candidates.
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When those independents who report a lean toward a party are counted as supporters of that party, the overall proportion of independents is small – about 10% of the total electorate. That level has remained roughly constant since the 1950s. About two-thirds of independents lean toward one of the two major political parties’ candidates.
Yeah, it is tricky defining a lean and what level of support that means. I always figured most Independents (me included) lean one way or another but with reservations about that party's ideological platform - reservations that at some point caused them to abandon a party registration.

On the thread topic generally, I remain somewhat uncertain - not of Joe's statesman qualities or ability to craft and nurture policies - but of how well he can think on his feet and how perceptions of that (and politics is all about perception, n'est-ce-pas?) will affect his chances in November. Biden has all the incumbent advantages and his progressive record (when not viewed in a RW media distorting mirror), and maybe he can win on that. Many understand his verbal flubs are part of a verbal awkwardness he's had his entire life.

I think a lot of unease, whatever its public face, is not about who Joe is but who he can project to the voters who need the shallow emblems of strength and quick wittedness. Really, Joe, just get the neuro exam - you're probably okay, and it will show that you're as good a listener as most of us know you to be.