The coming decline of America

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by kmguru, Feb 25, 2004.

  1. gendanken Ruler of All the Lands Valued Senior Member

    15 centavos:
    Eat shit, blue eyes.

    You've proven two things:

    One, how blended in with the background noise this chicky here is. I can't tell you shit about her because she's never said anything of much of interest, comes off as simplistic as most naysayers usually are, and her boring posts- BORING- posts could peel paint off my wall.

    And the second thing you've proven: my psychoanalytic abitlites are not as fucked as I usually think they are. She really is a lawyer and I had no fucking clue she was one.

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  3. 15ofthe19 35 year old virgin Registered Senior Member

    How could I have known that this forum was so starved for good-looking blue-eyed men. You certainly are just another member of the "obsessed with 15's Blue Eyes" club. I had no idea that one inconsequential post could have ignited such a firestorm in your organization. But I digress...

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

    I like you gendy. You are actually capable of humor. What a concept, no?

    Some advice: You probably don't want to challenge an attorney on matters of Con-Law. Most assuredly, you will get your ass kicked. Here's a radical might actually learn a thing or two.

    Even the two-headed hydra has a chance at knowledge if dogma is offset with experience.
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  5. alain du hast mich Registered Senior Member

    the us is going down, bush knows this, and wants to win some records for the US (such as most Muslim countries annexed) before it does go down. Also Americas economy goes up as a result of wars, so that is probably why they're attacking now.

    i dont really see anyone that could take over though, Someone mentioned Europe, which i doubt will get too united (still anger over the whole WWI and WWII things)

    i would rather the Chinese or Indian having power then the US - It was a good idea, but it has got a bit shoddy lately
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  7. cosmictraveler Be kind to yourself always. Valued Senior Member

    I'd think that the US is actually holding its own. It is trying to establish good relations with China , who I think will emerge as the next world economic leader and try to work together in keeping BOTH countries as well as other countries capitalistic and growing.
  8. Undecided Banned Banned


    How soon we forget Taiwan, relations are getting a little worse lately because of the backlash over outsourcing. The US it seems will cancel it's economic meetings with the Chinese in May for what it calls "unfair" trade practices. Bascially as long as Taiwan is there the Chinese and American relationship will be strained. Also I don't know how the US will deal with the fact that China will usurp her in influence in Asia?
  9. crazy151drinker Registered Senior Member

    One thing missing here is resources. While India and China have the population to support a booming economy they dont have the natural resources. Lets not even get into infrastructure.........
  10. kmguru Staff Member

    India and China is full of natural resources. It is the Japan which lacks....
  11. Undecided Banned Banned

    While India and China have the population to support a booming economy they dont have the natural resources

    They do have resources, but they don't have enough you are right. But what do you think SE Asia and Siberia are for? Once China monopolizes trade out of the US' and Japan's hand thing will quickly change. These states will become dependant on China, and that is not a good thing for the US let alone those nations.

    Lets not even get into infrastructure.........

    They are developing; billions are now being poured in. China's infrastructure in the coastal regions is not that bad...India well that needs modernization.
  12. crazy151drinker Registered Senior Member

    We take things like Wood for granted. Everything in India is made of of concrete, including fence posts. Plus you have 1,000 religions etc..etc.. India has problems. No highways, power problems, etc.. they need alot of work.
    China.....well China worries me. Their coastal cities are really picking up. The interior is still 2000 years old but the infrastructure will spread.
    Quick thought.........I know the vast majority of people think that Iraq was all about the Oil. Now, im not saying it was- just that it was a big time added bonus. What if this was a pre-emptive strike to keep China in line? China is importing butt loads of Oil and would need massive imports to sustain any real Military invasion. Maybe we are preventing future Chinese hostilities??? Just a thought.....
  13. Undecided Banned Banned

    Quick thought.........I know the vast majority of people think that Iraq was all about the Oil. Now, im not saying it was- just that it was a big time added bonus. What if this was a pre-emptive strike to keep China in line? China is importing butt loads of Oil and would need massive imports to sustain any real Military invasion. Maybe we are preventing future Chinese hostilities??? Just a thought.....

    China has Iran, I predict that China will become a very big player in the Middle East soon enough.

    I did a thread on this:

    I suggest you read, the US is in dire straights indeed.
  14. gendanken Ruler of All the Lands Valued Senior Member

    Sarcasm bites.

    Point to ponder: had you been obese, I'd be mauling you with fat jokes.
    Had you been female, I'd destroy you with misogony.

    I only go with what I know and then use it against you if you cross me first- I realize you're being funny with your statement but it bothers the shit out of me when men think I want them. "But I digress...."

    *flips hair*

    Lies. (please say you like me, please say you like me, pretty please say you like me)

    And what do her law degrees have to do with understanding? Its dinsgenius to place much faith on labels especially when the ones wearing them are female.

    She'd like to sit there and babble about the West being destroyed by the hate of suicidal Muslims and I'll treat her like the pompous twat I think she is with her Plessy v. Ferguson bullshit.

    Now go make yourself uselful:
  15. ddovala Pi is exactly 3 Registered Senior Member

    The rest of the world better hope there is never war with China. It would be nuclear and BOTH nations would be blown out of oblivion (and i'm sure other countries would start to go down in the mayhem). China or the US might think "If we're going down we're taking the rest of the world with us" and start launching nukes at everyone. God knows there are enough. The only way to avoid such events would be to have only one country covering the entirety of the Earth (which would NEVER happen). I think both China and the US acknoledge the impacts of nuclear war. I also think the worst that would ever happen is a new "cold" war with China. Oh, and most people in America think Bush is a dumbshit. Sometimes countries get bad leaders, oh well.
  16. Eluminate Registered Senior Member

    I think china will pop like a baloon in the next 5 years or sooner. The ecconomic variables are there so is the infrastructure thats rotten to the core and able to recieve such a weight to bring it all the way to the bottom fo the bust. Personally the biggest factors that China has going against her is the superb deterioration state of her financial system intermediers (banks) their portfolios are packed full of shit (insolvent loans) at 10% insolvent loans and higher in the big central banks to 25% in the regionals and below. The second part of the problem is the ecconomic dependance on the low yuan to keep the capital flowing. As soon as it appreciates investment will begin to slow down and banks will begin to collapse from lack of liquidity.

    Oh yes and the oil dependance in China will be far far heavier then US. For example America has reserves and produces for about half of its needs domesticly. China on the other hand has recently announced the the Daquing oilfields which are its major source deposit are begining to lower production scaling aproximately 7% annualy and will run dry by approximately 2010. China imports about 30-40% of its needs annualy and will needs to increase imports drasticly to keep up with demand which is skyrocketing. Personally I feel that unlike the US it will be hard for china to maintain a balance of trade in order to offset its commodity needs. Oil, metal etc... But dont forget the basics grain, meat, and other staples which have increased in price by about 50% due to China's hunger. Also so far 80% of the Chiese goods I had the pleasure of buying had the absolute worst quality. My father stoped buying them as well so did his boss cause the quality is beyond horrific.
    Last edited: May 13, 2004
  17. kmguru Staff Member

    Economists have been predicting China's financial ballon to pop since mid eighties....but it keeps going and going....even Deutsche Bank only showed its profits by shedding a quarter of its staff and sold more than $14 billion of assets to boost its profit. So when the time comes, the Chinese will do the same. They are fast learners.
  18. Rick Valued Senior Member

    China is still along with the U.S. the driver of Global Economy.In countries like India Liberalization,Disinvestments have just begun.So India is relatively new to this sort of Economy.Therefore Market works on Fundamentals(Which India is Very Strong in) plus some sentimental values as well.Unless that changes,Indian Economy will face the music.Indian GDP for instance with fast measures has grown like lightning in last four years with new policies.
    India's process of economic reform is firmly rooted in a political consensus that spans her diverse political parties. India's democracy is a known and stable factor, which has taken deep roots over nearly half a century. Importantly, India has no fundamental conflict between its political and economic systems. Its political institutions have fostered an open society with strong collective and individual rights and an environment supportive of free economic enterprise.

    India's time tested institutions offer foreign investors a transparent environment that guarantees the security of their long term investments. These include a free and vibrant press, a judiciary which can and does overrule the government, a sophisticated legal and accounting system and a user friendly intellectual infrastructure. India's dynamic and highly competitive private sector has long been the backbone of its economic activity. It accounts for over 75% of its Gross Domestic Product and offers considerable scope for joint ventures and collaborations.

    Today, India is one of the most exciting emerging markets in the world. Skilled managerial and technical manpower that match the best available in the world and a middle class whose size exceeds the population of the USA or the European Union, provide India with a distinct cutting edge in global competition.
  19. Paula Registered Senior Member

    People have been predicting America's fall almost since her birth. First we couldn't survive without Britain, then we couldn't stay together after the Civil War, the Cold War was expected to bring us down along with the USSR and people have waioted in vain for many years for top-heavy socialist Europe to develop into a counterbalance.

    Meanwhile, at the beginning of this year the World Bank and IMF predicted that the US economy would grow much faster than all of Europe combined for the next twenty years, EU enlargement would actually slow EU growth as economically struggling nations enter and put additional strains on the whole EU economy and US brand name hegemony was almost complete worldwide.

    Some economists are already predicting that the Chinese bubble will burst soon, as Chinese companies will soon face the dilemma of outsourcing vs losing the competitive edge. The US exports research, technology and medical advancements. China epxorts textiles, something the US long ago yielded to Taiwan, Mexico and Indonesia.

    The decline and fall of the US appears to be no more substantial than wishful thinking on the part of our enemies.
  20. Eluminate Registered Senior Member

    finally someone who agrees with me. And yes US is definetely in the best position overall it cant constrict the growth of china while china cannot reciprocate. I tried to show that in my thread but Undicided always twists my words around. Outsourcing will begin to subside because its much harder to monitor two national planes of influence then one if your not a multi-national corp. Lots of companies didnt yeild the results they wished from outsourcing and their investments are creating growth & pushing their expenses on the outsource side faster up then they expected.

    I m gonna try to summirize my china argument now; China peged currency to US dollar, dollar falls = yuan falls , inflation skyrocketing = cost of goods up = cost of raw materials up but demand is pegged to the dollar value of the pegged dollar. Ergo any increase in Chinese price upwards mobility = double the amount of price disincentive for their goods in the US. Trade wise this is a US victory because it equalizes the trade deficit even though it appears to be still Chinese favored one but it discounts the fact that we are paying 80cents for a 1dollar chinese good thats costing them 1dollar externally. If they take out the peg now they will in effect be reducing their dollar exports to the US volume wise and the trade deficit will reduce in both number and real terms.
  21. guthrie paradox generator Registered Senior Member

    Well, it is an obvious fact that what gos up, must come down. The question here is the timescale. At the moment I am guessing about 50 years. Some here would say much less than that, but either way, the US share of global trade, a rough guage of its comparable power, is far lower than it was 50 years ago when it loaded the world institution dice in its favour.
  22. kmguru Staff Member

    Here is an interesting trend. What do you think this would lead to?

    With outsoucing going on, if one million jobs leave the country that is equivalent to 6 million job loss, since the earnings would no more create the multiplying effect. Now, as the tax base erodes, there will be less money for social spending. In the meantime, our prison population is going through the roof. New prisons are being built all over the country.

    As we all know, the prison system is a college for small time hoodloom to graduate to a hardcore criminal. With money going to war and watching the terrorists, there may not be money left for the care and feeding of these criminals. So States and even Federal prisons have to let many go free to make room for more bunk beds.

    It seems to me, we will have a large number of criminals walking on the streets along with the gun toting unemployed. If that would not decline America fast, I do not know what would!
    Last edited: May 18, 2004
  23. John_angry Banned Banned

    i bet you anything America falls from a superoiwer with 2050.

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