Syria: "the unthinkable has happened"

[C C]

The wait and see if the new boss (or multiple clashing ones) is an improvement.
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Biden Says U.S. Conducted Airstrikes Against Islamic State Targets in Syria
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/us/politics/biden-syria-assad-isis.html

President Biden announced on Sunday that U.S. military forces had conducted airstrikes in Syria to keep the Islamic State from reasserting itself in the aftermath of the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s government...

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End of Assad rule will reshape region's balance of power
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8j99447gj1o

EXCERPTS: The fall of Bashar al-Assad was almost unthinkable just a week ago,,,

[...] Iran, again, is seeing its influence suffer a significant blow. Syria under Assad was part of the connection between the Iranians and Hezbollah, and it was key for the transfer of weapons and ammunition to the group. Hezbollah itself has been severely weakened after its year-long war with Israel and its future is uncertain.

Another Iranian-supported faction, the Houthis in Yemen, have been repeatedly targeted in air strikes. All these factions, plus militias in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, form what Tehran describes as the Axis of Resistance, which has now been seriously damaged.

This new picture will be celebrated in Israel where Iran is viewed as an existential threat. Many believe this offensive could not have happened without the blessing of Turkey. Turkey, which supports some of the rebels in Syria, has denied backing HTS....

 

[exchemist]

The wait and see if the new boss (or multiple clashing ones) is an improvement.
- - - - -

Biden Says U.S. Conducted Airstrikes Against Islamic State Targets in Syria
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/us/politics/biden-syria-assad-isis.html

President Biden announced on Sunday that U.S. military forces had conducted airstrikes in Syria to keep the Islamic State from reasserting itself in the aftermath of the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s government...

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

End of Assad rule will reshape region's balance of power
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8j99447gj1o

EXCERPTS: The fall of Bashar al-Assad was almost unthinkable just a week ago,,,

[...] Iran, again, is seeing its influence suffer a significant blow. Syria under Assad was part of the connection between the Iranians and Hezbollah, and it was key for the transfer of weapons and ammunition to the group. Hezbollah itself has been severely weakened after its year-long war with Israel and its future is uncertain.

Another Iranian-supported faction, the Houthis in Yemen, have been repeatedly targeted in air strikes. All these factions, plus militias in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, form what Tehran describes as the Axis of Resistance, which has now been seriously damaged.

This new picture will be celebrated in Israel where Iran is viewed as an existential threat. Many believe this offensive could not have happened without the blessing of Turkey. Turkey, which supports some of the rebels in Syria, has denied backing HTS....

There was a profile of this al Jolani guy in the Financial Times on Saturday. It seems he has tried to shift HTS from a hardline Islamist ideology towards a more tolerant and pragmatic style of rule in the small area it previously controlled. He seems to have been at pains to stress tolerance of minorities in the areas his forces have conquered en route to Damascus. He and his inner circle appear to come largely from educated, middle class backgrounds, i.e. not rural tribesmen like the Taliban (or like Trump many supporters). So there are some grounds for optimism, though it remains possible obviously that this is just a ruse to get established and that he will revert to hardline Islamism: time will tell.

One point that is disturbingly obvious from the map, however, is that the NE 1/3 - 1/2 of Syria is currently in the hands of a quite different group of fighters: the Kurds. The Kurds have been agitating for a homeland for decades, much to the chagrin of Turkey, which has had to contend with Kurdish separatism and even terrorism for a long time. Turkey appears to support, tacitly, HTS. This situation strikes me as liable to become the focus of another stage in the civil war, or possibly a partition of the country. Partition might not necessarily be a bad thing, actually. After all, the borders of all these states were created rather arbitrarily, by the Sykes-Picot agreement at the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire after WW1.

But it's not over, not by a long chalk.

There is also the interesting question of the Russian naval base at Tartus, which gives Russia a strategically important base in the Med. HTS will control the territory around that. Will they allow the Russians to remain? I think if I were al Jolani I would sign a new agreement to allow that, rather than trying to kick them out. I can't see it makes sense for him to pick sides between the West and Russia at the moment. He will want to sort out the domestic issues in Syria, not become a sworn enemy of Russia right from the start.

Western countries, for their part, will need to prepare to revisit their current designation of HTS as a terrorist organisation. If al Jolani proves not to be Taliban 2.0, then they should quickly find ways to reclassify HTS and offer his government a guarded welcome - and maybe some support to put the country back together again. There are something like 3 million (!) Syrian refugees, causing huge immigration issues for Turkey and the EU, where it has played a part in the rise of the far-right anti-immigration parties now sprouting all over the place. It is in everyone's domestic self-interest to give these people a reason to go home again.

 

[C C]

[...] One point that is disturbingly obvious from the map, however, is that the NE 1/3 - 1/2 of Syria is currently in the hands of a quite different group of fighters: the Kurds. The Kurds have been agitating for a homeland for decades, much to the chagrin of Turkey, which has had to contend with Kurdish separatism and even terrorism for a long time. Turkey appears to support, tacitly, HTS. This situation strikes me as liable to become the focus of another stage in the civil war, or possibly a partition of the country. Partition might not necessarily be a bad thing, actually. After all, the borders of all these states were created rather arbitrarily, by the Sykes-Picot agreement at the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire after WW1. [...]

The very name of "Levant Liberation Committee" (Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham) sounds foreboding, in the sense of gesturing at that greater region beyond just Syria.

On one hand, it looks like Turkey would definitely use its newly established clout to undermine SDF and AANES. On the flip-side, though, HTS had diplomatic talks with SDF in 2023, with the latter actually entertaining the idea of recruiting HTS to deter Turkish influence in northern Syria. HTS instead suggested a joint partnership in countering terrorism (catering to both sides, apparently).

If al-Julani owes a debt to Turkey for assistance and support, then that might keep him coloring within the lines of being less fundamentalist (while nevertheless being a potential puppet for its aims). But if there are still extremists lingering in HTS (from the old days), then one of them might be the stringent Stalin that rises up vengeance-wise to kick out Trotsky.

"[...] classmates remember al-Julani as a studious but unremarkable boy who wore thick glasses and avoided attention. During his youth, he was described as 'manipulatively intelligent' but 'socially introverted' [...]"

Yeah, we'll see. The literary intellectual types don't have a good track record for hanging on to power in post-revolutionary conditions where the old order has been fully shot in the head.
_

 

[exchemist]

The very name of "Levant Liberation Committee" (Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham) sounds foreboding, in the sense of gesturing at that greater region beyond just Syria.

On one hand, it looks like Turkey would definitely use its newly established clout to undermine SDF and AANES. On the flip-side, though, HTS had diplomatic talks with SDF in 2023, with the latter actually entertaining the idea of recruiting HTS to deter Turkish influence in northern Syria. HTS instead suggested a joint partnership in countering terrorism (catering to both sides, apparently).

If al-Julani owes a debt to Turkey for assistance and support, then that might keep him coloring within the lines of being less fundamentalist (while nevertheless being a potential puppet for its aims). But if there are still extremists lingering in HTS (from the old days), then one of them might be the stringent Stalin that rises up vengeance-wise to kick out Trotsky.

"[...] classmates remember al-Julani as a studious but unremarkable boy who wore thick glasses and avoided attention. During his youth, he was described as 'manipulatively intelligent' but 'socially introverted' [...]"

Yeah, we'll see. The literary intellectual types don't have a good track record for hanging on to power in post-revolutionary conditions where the old order has been fully shot in the head.
_

Yes, we have to let things settle for a while before deciding whether this is likely to be a good outcome or not, but I definitely think we in the West should indicate openness to constructive engagement at this stage. It's notable how many expat Syrians are already expressing the hope or intention to go back, now that that monster is gone. (He'll fit right in in Russia, by the way!)

 

[Killjoy]

Looks like the Sons of David are voicing their opinion on this turn of events quite - emphatically...

Israeli warplanes pound Syria as troops reportedly advance deeper into the country

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Israel carried out a wave of heavy airstrikes across Syria as its troops advanced deeper into the country, a Syrian opposition war monitor said Tuesday, and the Israeli defense minister announced that his forces had destroyed Syria’s navy.

Israel acknowledged pushing into a buffer zone inside Syria following the overthrow of President Bashar Assad. But it remained unclear if Israeli soldiers had gone beyond that area, which was established more than 50 years ago. Israel denied that it was advancing on the Syrian capital of Damascus.

The Israeli military said Tuesday that it carried out more than 350 strikes in Syria over the last 48 hours, hitting “most of the strategic weapons stockpiles” in the country to stop them from falling into the hands of extremists.

The targets included air defense systems, military airfields, missile depots and dozens of weapons production sites in Damascus and other cities. Associated Press reporters in the capital heard heavy airstrikes overnight and into Tuesday morning.

 

[TheVat]

German conservatives seem to be jumping on the Send them Back bandwagon. A plan is proposed to give all one million Syrian refugees a thousand Euros and a plane ticket back. I wouid have mixed feelings about this if I were Syrian. (though German winters would definitely ratchet up the homesickness)

 

[exchemist]

German conservatives seem to be jumping on the Send them Back bandwagon. A plan is proposed to give all one million Syrian refugees a thousand Euros and a plane ticket back. I wouid have mixed feelings about this if I were Syrian. (though German winters would definitely ratchet up the homesickness)

If it were an offer, rather than compulsory repatriation, it might not be such a bad idea. Suspect €1000 not enough though.

There might be a risk of causing migration into Germany, by those displaced Syrians elsewhere who wanted to take it up as well. One has to think through the potential unintended consequences of schemes like that.

 

[sculptor]

Kurds?

 

[Killjoy]

Kurds?

BBC offered this bit of info concerning the situation in Kurdish controlled regions:

What is happening in northern Syria?​

In the northern city of Manbij there have been clashes between Turkish-backed forces and Kurdish-led rebels.
Both sides claimed to have taken parts of the city and fighting is reported to be ongoing in some neighbourhoods.
The Euphrates river acts as a dividing line between the territory controlled by the Turkish-backed groups in the west and the Kurdish-led forces in the east.

Syria in maps: Who controls the country now Assad has gone?
Map illustration for the above quote:

 

[exchemist]

Kurds?

Whey?

 

[sculptor]

Whey?

along came a spider

 

[TheVat]

If it were an offer, rather than compulsory repatriation, it might not be such a bad idea. Suspect €1000 not enough though.

Yep. If you return jobless and your former abode is a pile of rubble or lacking basic utilities, you might have a bumpy ride. I would imagine a fair number of Syrians might want to stay in Germany a while if they can get a work permit and save up some money. I don't know how refugees are registered, so I don't know if Syrians from other nearby countries could come in and try to claim the euros plus plane ticket. Depends on how much Germany pays attention to the LOUC. And the porosity of their borders.

 

[TheVat]

along came a spider

Arachnophobia is no joking matter.