I dont smoke. I hate it when people blow their cigarette smoke to where you are sitting/standing. i have to breath into my sleeve.
spuriousmonkey said:Please be kind and explain the last table in this paper in your own words.
FUCKING VINDICATED!i was dropped on my head
riku_124 said:since i started in october ive used maby about 20 dollers whale smoking, but ive got a question for you guys
if your parents buy a carton of cigeretts ( 10 pack) is it steelnig if you take one pack every week week and a half ( they get 2 cartons a qweek)
You're a big boy. You should be able to work that one out for yourself... THIEF!if your parents buy a carton of cigeretts ( 10 pack) is it steelnig if you take one pack every week week and a half ( they get 2 cartons a qweek)
qwerty mob said:The last table summarizes the statistical null hypothesis (P values) weighed against Hackshaw's distribution of case studies; it shows that as sample size increases (more studies) Hackshaw's confidence interval of 95% for a 1.24-1.26 risk probability drops significantly as data which does not support his median of 25% is given more weight against the CI. Readjusted for the same CI, it shows that unsupportive data was more likely to be excluded (or outside of his 25%)- indicating publication bias.
In simplest terms, that if new studies were introduced into Hackshaw's study the "25% more likely" number would drop.
...
Your interpretation is-?
You know what Twain said about statistics though![]()
Statement from the CDC Director
In the four decades following the release of the first Surgeon General’s Report on smoking and health, we have seen dramatic progress in reducing tobacco use in this country.
Adult smoking rates have been cut nearly in half between 1965 and 2002, from 42.4 percent to 22.5 percent, and per capita consumption of tobacco products has fallen more than half, from 4,345 cigarettes in 1963 to 1,979 cigarettes in 2002.
But, tragically, smoking remains the leading preventable cause of death and disease in the United States, claiming the lives of more than 440,000 (*) Americans each year.
The good news is that we know what works to curb tobacco use: comprehensive programs combining school, healthcare, community, media, and policy efforts.
We must now commit ourselves to implementing in every state and locality these proven approaches to prevent youth from starting to smoke, to help smokers to quit, to protect people from secondhand smoke, and to eliminate tobacco-related disparities.
The health of our nation demands no less.
Julie Louise Gerberding, MD, MPH
Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Administrator, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry
spuriousmonkey said:One swallow doesn't make spring.
14% is still more than 1 in 10.
qwerty mob said:Number of Adult smokers, 1965 - 54 million (43% total pop. rate)
Number of Adult smokers, 2005 - 57 million (22% total pop. rate)
qwerty mob said:And has nothing to do with smoking, does it?
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uh oh, somebody has been rubbing that monkey pelt the wrong way againspuriousmonkey said:Look buddy.
In other words, what this paper says is that if a bunch of people did studies that found no effect of passive smoking and lunc cancer and found no increase in risk, and we suddenly knew about these papers, then our estimate of how much the risk was elevated would be smaller.
But the risk would still be elevated.
The real killer from secondhand smoke is heart disease, not lung cancer. Heart disease kills about 10 times more people than lung cancer. And not even the tobacco industry has contested the evidence on asthma.
So... what's the big deal?
In sum, turning over stones may indeed alter the estimated risk -- however, turning over the right stone suggests that in the original meta- analysis, the actual passive smoking-lung cancer risk is underestimated -- not overestimated.
Conclusion: No over-reporting "publication bias" occurs now, only under-reporting; and, when (if) pursuant to law, TTS-caused deaths cease (are at zero level), even the issue will foreseeably cease and become moot.
Copas and Shi do not dispute that there is an increased risk of lung cancer due to passive smoking nor do they seriously challenge our estimates of its magnitude.
If the cut back in smoking was only achieved recently, the benefits (or a notable lack thereof) will only be measurable several decades from now. No one argued that smoking kills instantly.qwerty mob said:This means that despite taxing the hell out of it (here in the US), and cutting smoking in half, AND banning smoking just about everywhere in some localities... that not a single life has been saved statistically.
Maybe they have a lifestyle which doesn't aggravate health further, in contrary to other countries. I admit, I'm merely speculating here. Do you have references to the numbers of "smoking-related" mortality in Japan and Greece?I'd like a logical explanation why, in countries like Japan who smoke more than we do, and places like Greece where they smoke way more than anyone else in the world, that their people seem to have lower rates of "smoking-related" mortality and diseases like cancer than we do in the US.
I have to admit, I'm not sure if, for example, all of the lung cancers are automatically labeled "smoking related" or whether the deceased patient's smoking history is taken into account.This year, suppose 440,000 smokers die of "smoking related illnesses" (which aren't exclusively smoking related, remember).
I must have missed something. Where did the 46 million figure come from? I think you meant 440.000 / 57.000.000 (which amounts 0.0072, in contrast with 440.000 / 46.000.000 which amounts to 0.0096), am I correct?Of the total population of smokers, by the US CDC's own numbers, one's actual risk of develping a lethal "smoking related illness" amounts to 440,000/46,000,000, or 0.00772 = 0.772...
At this point, we've only discussed fatalities. I haven't yet looked into other, serious but not fatal, diseases.Once you understand how the CDC misuses it's numbers (as do others), even assuming that their numbers were exhaustive and errorless, they still have not shown a serious behavioral health risk.
My pleasure.Thanks for Reading.