Mohsen Ezz El-Din Al-Bakr
Registered Member
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After thirty or forty years, we may no longer need to work except as a hobby—like hunting in the wilderness for someone who is not actually hungry, or who does not hunt to find food, but hunts as a pastime rather than out of necessity, as our ancestors did—because robots and artificial intelligence will perform most tasks. Technology develops cumulatively: it starts small, then multiplies and spreads. For example, in its early days the computer was only for the wealthy, whereas today it sits in every person’s pocket in the form of a phone, just as happened with cars, airplanes, and household appliances, which began as limited and expensive and then became available to everyone.
This can be imagined through the example of a mold: a precisely crafted metal piece is produced by a small mold. But who made the mold? And who made the tools that made the mold? And so on. Industrial and technological processes accumulate, with each step depending on the previous one. The same logic applies to electronic memory: each memory cell stores only a single bit, yet it is manufactured through microscopic molds, such that a single fabrication process can produce millions or billions of cells at once. With each generation, the cells become smaller and more precise, and their number increases within the same area. This explains Moore’s Law and the continuous explosion in the number of transistors, which transformed the computer from a room-sized machine into a device in the hand of every human being.
Here lies the secret of the rapid transformation expected over the coming decades: moving along the exponential growth curve. The efforts that took thousands of years and centuries in ancient times represented the slow, early stages of exponential growth, where the results were modest—like 2² or 2³—small outputs despite the exponential nature of growth. Today, however, we have passed the inflection point and entered the later stages of this exponential growth, where every small advance multiplies previous capability, producing massive and surprising results. This is why radical change that once required thousands of years in ancient times now requires only a few decades.
This same cumulative process applies to robots and artificial intelligence: every small advance opens the door to a greater one, and productive capacity moves from a small class of the wealthy to something widespread among all people. Most routine jobs will be automated, and the human role will become creative and hobby-like, as predicted by thinkers such as Arthur C. Clarke, Ray Kurzweil, Yuval Noah Harari, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates. The future that seems distant today will become possible and logical, and work will become a choice rather than an economic necessity—just as computers and modern devices have become available to all of humanity.
In the end, the most intelligent people will be the most prominent among humans, because ordinary workers—who once formed the backbone of the economy and could even become wealthy through labor—will be displaced by the more intelligent, many of whom had previously remained in the background. This follows the law of evolution and the principle of competitive exclusion.
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Best regards,
Eng. Mohsen Ezz al-Din al-Bakri
After thirty or forty years, we may no longer need to work except as a hobby—like hunting in the wilderness for someone who is not actually hungry, or who does not hunt to find food, but hunts as a pastime rather than out of necessity, as our ancestors did—because robots and artificial intelligence will perform most tasks. Technology develops cumulatively: it starts small, then multiplies and spreads. For example, in its early days the computer was only for the wealthy, whereas today it sits in every person’s pocket in the form of a phone, just as happened with cars, airplanes, and household appliances, which began as limited and expensive and then became available to everyone.
This can be imagined through the example of a mold: a precisely crafted metal piece is produced by a small mold. But who made the mold? And who made the tools that made the mold? And so on. Industrial and technological processes accumulate, with each step depending on the previous one. The same logic applies to electronic memory: each memory cell stores only a single bit, yet it is manufactured through microscopic molds, such that a single fabrication process can produce millions or billions of cells at once. With each generation, the cells become smaller and more precise, and their number increases within the same area. This explains Moore’s Law and the continuous explosion in the number of transistors, which transformed the computer from a room-sized machine into a device in the hand of every human being.
Here lies the secret of the rapid transformation expected over the coming decades: moving along the exponential growth curve. The efforts that took thousands of years and centuries in ancient times represented the slow, early stages of exponential growth, where the results were modest—like 2² or 2³—small outputs despite the exponential nature of growth. Today, however, we have passed the inflection point and entered the later stages of this exponential growth, where every small advance multiplies previous capability, producing massive and surprising results. This is why radical change that once required thousands of years in ancient times now requires only a few decades.
This same cumulative process applies to robots and artificial intelligence: every small advance opens the door to a greater one, and productive capacity moves from a small class of the wealthy to something widespread among all people. Most routine jobs will be automated, and the human role will become creative and hobby-like, as predicted by thinkers such as Arthur C. Clarke, Ray Kurzweil, Yuval Noah Harari, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates. The future that seems distant today will become possible and logical, and work will become a choice rather than an economic necessity—just as computers and modern devices have become available to all of humanity.
In the end, the most intelligent people will be the most prominent among humans, because ordinary workers—who once formed the backbone of the economy and could even become wealthy through labor—will be displaced by the more intelligent, many of whom had previously remained in the background. This follows the law of evolution and the principle of competitive exclusion.
…
Best regards,
Eng. Mohsen Ezz al-Din al-Bakri
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