Orban is OUT

[exchemist]

This is excellent news for Europe, and bad news for Putin, Vance and Prarject 2025. Vance went to see Orban just a couple of days ago and it doesn't seem to have done Orban any good, in fact quite likely the reverse. Not that that is much of a surprise. This will make life far easier for Ursula.

Prarject 2025 people have visited Hungary quite a bit to get ideas on how to subvert the state to entrench authoritarianism. I imagine Magyar will have quite a job on his hands to dig out all the placemen, rather as Tusk has found in Poland, trying to get rid of the PiS placemen there.

But it's great news, showing as it does that right wing populism can reach a limit and countries can resile from it - if they still have functional elections.

 

[TheVat]

Yesss! Jubilation on the Danube tonight. Magyar certainly has the surname thing going. And a resolve to restore public services. Our House minority leader in Washington tweeted, "Far-right authoritarian Viktor Orbán has lost the election. Trump sycophants and Maga extremists in Congress are up next in November. Winter is coming."

I imagine Magyar will have quite a job on his hands to dig out all the placemen,

For sure, and how he handles that may be instructive for President Newsom.

 

[Tiassa]

Shadows of Memory and Markers Toward a Brighter Future

Just one of those things that came up along the way. :

Think, today, of actual cultural behavior among a significant and influential population, and consider what it is doing. Here's a hint, they're in the same territory as Rauch and Shapiro, with religious-affiliated behavior organizing significant efforts to censor history and science in the public sphere; the effort just happens to target women, queers, and bipoc. Shapiro cites Douglas Murray, for instance, an advocate of white supremacist conspiracy theories including Cultural Marxism and Great Replacement. The thing is that without context, Murray's offering is the sort of thing that pretty much anyone can try. It's one thing to quote Solzhenitsyn ("live not by lies") and attend the stations of pride ("being told to bend the knee", "permanent ostracism", "don't let them bully you"), but there is also the question of what those arguments intend, i.e., what is being constrained. For Murray, it's white supremacism; for Shapiro it's fallacies of conservative politic, including supremacism; for Rauch it's a shield against criticism such as Spiers describes, a cancel culture "apparently defined as any sort of consequences for displays of bigotry that happen to be driven by social opprobrium", and Zack Beauchamp parses as "not anyone's right to speech, but rather their right to air that speech in specific platforms like the New York Times without fear of social backlash".

("On Cancel Culture" #286 [2024]↗; boldface accent added)​

It wouldn't have occurred to mind, today, except journalist Peter Jukes↱ recalled some photos and commented:

Just wanted to share this picture of Bannon and Douglas Murray fanboying Orban in 2018. Bannon was being supported by Epstein to create his far right European 'Mouvement' at the time, and trying to topple Theresa May.

Dark times. Dark people. Some light tonight​

It is an important question, what an argument intends; it comes up from time to time↗, i.e., maybe it is worth considering why those people are trying to give that advice, or to consider how some interesting thing is being applied, and even understand what happened when we pretended to take a middle road.

Douglas Murray isn't the most promising of middle roads, and, let's face it, never really was. And now, Hungary hopes to choose a better road, and move past the Orbán mistake.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043476439064867051

 

[Sarkus]

I imagine Magyar will have quite a job on his hands to dig out all the placemen, rather as Tusk has found in Poland, trying to get rid of the PiS placemen there.

The good news for them is (hopefully , as counting not yet finished) that they actually get above the 2/3 majority, so can implement sweeping changes in policy, and quickly reverse the things Orban did that they don't like. The BBC suggests they're on course for 138.seats, with Orban's party on 55, and another far right party on 6. (199 seats total).

 

[exchemist]

Yesss! Jubilation on the Danube tonight. Magyar certainly has the surname thing going. And a resolve to restore public services. Our House minority leader in Washington tweeted, "Far-right authoritarian Viktor Orbán has lost the election. Trump sycophants and Maga extremists in Congress are up next in November. Winter is coming."


For sure, and how he handles that may be instructive for President Newsom.

Magyar seems to have got the supermajority needed for changes to the constitution. This is important for restoring judicial independence, one his stated key aims.

A big part of his appeal was to stamp out the endemic cronyism and corruption of the Orban years.

It seems to me the second of these at least might find an echo in the USA. The degree to which Trump has monetised the presidency for himself and his family is scandalous and nepotism is rife. I mean, who TF is Jared Kushner? And why is his dad, a convicted criminal with a 2year gaol term behind him, the USA’s ambassador to France?

 

[exchemist]

The good news for them is (hopefully , as counting not yet finished) that they actually get above the 2/3 majority, so can implement sweeping changes in policy, and quickly reverse the things Orban did that they don't like. The BBC suggests they're on course for 138.seats, with Orban's party on 55, and another far right party on 6. (199 seats total).

Indeed. The scale of the defeat is perhaps a salutary warning shot across the bows of other far right nationalist parties, in France, Germany and Britain. Both Poland and Hungary have stepped back from experiments in “illiberal democracy”. Now that Trump has fucked up, big time, in the US, I begin to wonder if this phenomenon may be reaching its high water mark.

 

[scorpius]

Are majority of hungarians better of now ?
Do they pay less for fuel, food etc?
Or do they waste money feeding military industry and prolonging wars

 

[James R]

Are majority of hungarians better of now ?

Compared to when?

Do they pay less for fuel, food etc?

You know there's a problem with oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz right now, don't you? It's because of a war started by your favourite President and his buddy in Israel.

Or do they waste money feeding military industry and prolonging wars

Is Hungary in any wars at the moment? Last I was aware, it wasn't.

Do you have a feeling of Hungary envy, scorpius? Regretting your vote(s) for Trump yet?

 

[billvon]

Are majority of hungarians better of now ?

Right now? No. In the future? Likely.

Do they pay less for fuel, food etc?

Right now? No. In the future? Probably not; economy will stay about the same, although as JR mentioned there are external factors driving up prices right now.

Or do they waste money feeding military industry and prolonging wars

Traditionally strongmen get into more wars, so they are likely to see less war overall.

 

[Tiassa]

Are majority of hungarians better of now ?
Do they pay less for fuel, food etc?
Or do they waste money feeding military industry and prolonging wars

Has the new Prime Minister been inaugurated, yet?

 

[exchemist]

Compared to when?

You know there's a problem with oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz right now, don't you? It's because of a war started by your favourite President and his buddy in Israel.

Is Hungary in any wars at the moment? Last I was aware, it wasn't.

Do you have a feeling of Hungary envy, scorpius? Regretting your vote(s) for Trump yet?

Trump? Putin, surely?

 

[C C]

Are majority of hungarians better of now ?
Do they pay less for fuel, food etc?
Or do they waste money feeding military industry and prolonging wars

Well, as mentioned, nepotism slash cronyism and degrees of corruption should at least be diminished. Péter Magyar is an ex-member of Orban's own party and a conservative libertarian (though currently playing the "no labels here" game). His Tisza party is a populist, center-conservative faction filled with strange bedfellows. Another anti-establishment party that's certainly less overtly ideological than Reform UK, but seems to serve the same role in terms of drumming on the "fed up with both the traditional left and right political units (elites)" bandwagon. Orban had been in power for 16 years, so for some North Americans it might seem rather extraordinary if he had garnered yet another extension, albeit the ephemerality of US presidents should not be analogous to European PMs and systems.
__

 

[exchemist]

Well, as mentioned, nepotism slash cronyism and degrees of corruption should at least be diminished. Péter Magyar is an ex-member of Orban's own party and a conservative libertarian (though currently playing the "no labels here" game). His Tisza party is a populist, center-conservative faction filled with strange bedfellows. Another anti-establishment party that's certainly less overtly ideological than Reform UK, but seems to serve the same role in terms of drumming on the "fed up with both the traditional left and right political units (elites)" bandwagon. Orban had been in power for 16 years, so for some North Americans it might seem rather extraordinary if he had garnered yet another extension, albeit the ephemerality of US presidents should not be analogous to European PMs and systems.
__

His most important task will be to restore the independence of the judiciary, for which he needs the supermajority he has in fact gained, as it means changing the constitution, which Orban had altered to bring judges under the thumb of his party. Details here: https://constitutionnet.org/news/vo...incremental-political-takeover-judicial-power

The slogan of the night was "Russia go home!". Magyar is pro-EU and wants to get rid of Russian influence.

I don't know anything more about his political programme but that will do very nicely for a start. If he carries out the reforms he promises it will bring Hungary back into the EU family, making it eligible once more for EU funds. So yes, the people should feel a benefit.

(scorpius doesn't like any of this as he is a Russian troll.)

 

[Sarkus]

It also means that $billions of EU aid for Ukraine can hopefully now get released, as Hungary were (iirc) the only ones vetoing it.

 

[exchemist]

It also means that $billions of EU aid for Ukraine can hopefully now get released, as Hungary were (iirc) the only ones vetoing it.

Another thing scorpius won’t like.