Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370
- Thread starter Bells
- Start date
Looks like they did turn around (once they couldn't find their alternate perhaps?) Then they just kept flying.
Bells
Staff member
I agree with you but I am in a bit of two minds about this.
If there was no fire, then why go to all that effort to avoid detection only to then just keep flying until the plane ran out of fuel and crashed? That doesn't exactly make sense to me.
And if this was a suicide, again, why bother with the evasion tactics when it would have been simpler to just bring it down an hour into the flight?
The whole thing makes no sense. And they are still to release the cargo manifest. You'd think with so many countries now scouring the Indian Ocean off Perth, that they would have released it by now... But no, still refusing.
My guess at the current time is that there was some kind of accident on the plane. A fire is possible. Or maybe something else caused the plane to depressurise. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised if the flight crew was renderred unconscious or otherwise unable to fly the plane.
It's not clear to me whether the plane turned only once (over the South China Sea) or twice (the second time after crossing the Malay peninsula). If there was only one turn, then it seems to fit the scenario of an absent flight crew and a plane on autopilot until it ran out of fuel. If there were two turns, then we need a better explanation.
It's not clear to me whether the plane turned only once (over the South China Sea) or twice (the second time after crossing the Malay peninsula). If there was only one turn, then it seems to fit the scenario of an absent flight crew and a plane on autopilot until it ran out of fuel. If there were two turns, then we need a better explanation.
Bells
Staff member
Well it turned around over the South China Sea and then it flew back over Malaysia, past Indonesia and then turned left and headed South over the Indian Ocean.
If the Malaysian authorities are to be believed, it apparently did a sharp turn and came back towards Malaysia a few minutes after they signed off with that last verbal message (which came after the first transponder was turned off), then flew back south west, over Malaysia and yeah.. Here we are.
This whole thing makes no sense. Frankly after Malaysia's cagey handling of this, and as much as I don't want to sound like a conspiracy nut, but I am finding it difficult to believe them. They waited so long before they declared the plane even missing, the refusal to provide the cargo manifest, the attempts to hide the batteries they had in the cargo hold, the attempts to almost confuse researches and withholding vital information.. It just goes on and on. It's a veritable list.
Bells
Staff member
Well of course. But why are they hiding so many things? Like the cargo manifest. I'd have thought that would be the first thing they would release to the searches when the plane first went missing, so that those scouring the seas would be able to see if anything they found matched up to said manifest. Instead they have said that the police are investigating it... That makes no sense to me.
Vietnam and China, as well as the US have all accused them of hiding something and China at least accused them of sending searchers on wild goosechases and releasing things in dribs and drabs without providing any proof or concrete evidence and they are withholding information. The whole thing makes no sense.
The best hope we have of ever finding out is to find the black box, which is going to be near impossible.
One group apparently did, but they were disregarded as they didn't see it as being serious enough to matter.
They waited an hour after it was due to land. That seems like a pretty reasonable amount of time to declare it missing, since the standard procedure with radio failure is just to continue with the flight plan as filed. That's one of the purposes of the flight plan - to allow a determination that it has not arrived at its destination when it was supposed to.
?? They told everyone they had the batteries on board on March 20. What attempts were made to hide them?
"The attempts to almost confuse?" This seems like a pretty clear case of Hanlon's Razor.
In such cases, generally the simplest explanation that fits the facts is the correct one. (Another famous 'razor.') And while anything could have happened, a fire on board adequately explains what we know so far.
So I learned something yesterday that absolutely blew me away...
Even IF they find the damned black boxes, they probably wont' be any help... why? Because they record only TWO HOURS worth of data... and then start recording over themselves!
*phone rings*
Uhm... one second...
*picks up phone* Hello?
*nods* Mhm... OH!
*looks around* The 1950's called... they want their storage devices back!
Seriously, what the hell? Even if we assume they are recording at 24 bit, 96KHz, 4,608 Kbps (which would be super high quality audio, mind you, as standard def TV is only transmitted in roughly 3,584 Kbps...) you are only talking about 2GB per hour... I have a 64 gig thumb drive... so there's 32 hours of audio! Now, assuming they only use a quarter of the space for the audio recording, and the rest for flight data - that gives you eight full hours of audio, with 48 GB left over for data storage.
Now, admittedly, I DON'T know how big these other data the FDRs keep is... but shit, we have fingernail-sized thumb drives capable of storing a whopping 64 gb, with finger-sized drives able to hold up to 128 and even 256gb! Surely they can find some way to store more than TWO BLOODY HOURS of data!?
Billvon, perchance you can shed some light on this, since you seem to have a good working knowledge of this in general (though I may presume too much - I don't know if the data mediums and such are corporate secrets or what not)
Even IF they find the damned black boxes, they probably wont' be any help... why? Because they record only TWO HOURS worth of data... and then start recording over themselves!
*phone rings*
Uhm... one second...
*picks up phone* Hello?
*nods* Mhm... OH!
*looks around* The 1950's called... they want their storage devices back!
Seriously, what the hell? Even if we assume they are recording at 24 bit, 96KHz, 4,608 Kbps (which would be super high quality audio, mind you, as standard def TV is only transmitted in roughly 3,584 Kbps...) you are only talking about 2GB per hour... I have a 64 gig thumb drive... so there's 32 hours of audio! Now, assuming they only use a quarter of the space for the audio recording, and the rest for flight data - that gives you eight full hours of audio, with 48 GB left over for data storage.
Now, admittedly, I DON'T know how big these other data the FDRs keep is... but shit, we have fingernail-sized thumb drives capable of storing a whopping 64 gb, with finger-sized drives able to hold up to 128 and even 256gb! Surely they can find some way to store more than TWO BLOODY HOURS of data!?
Billvon, perchance you can shed some light on this, since you seem to have a good working knowledge of this in general (though I may presume too much - I don't know if the data mediums and such are corporate secrets or what not)
Well, the minimum required recording time for a CVR (voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) is two hours - but many go longer than that. If the 777 involved uses the 'standard' FDR for 777's, then it will record 25 hours of flight data. (This was in response to an FAA rule change in 1997 that affected new aircraft.)
Oh? That sounds much, MUCH more reasonable. It was several news stations stating the 2-hour over-record limit, but who knows where those guys got that figure from I guess
They may have been talking about just the CVR. I don't know whether that goes beyond the 2 hour minimum.
That may be, but then that would bring me back to my original question of why only two hours... though I guess they probably figured if something bad enough happened that the CVR was the only source of info, the plane wasn't likely to be in the air that long to begin with huh...
I had been half-expecting that the search area would be moved northwards. After switching off the transponder and disabling ACARS, the pilot turned westward across the Malayan peninsular to the Straits of Malacca and then north-westerly towards the last point at which the plane was picked up by radar. The original search area was computed by reckoning that the plane turned south a little beyond this point, coming down at some point on the famous Inmarsat arc – the total mileage being calculated by duration of flight and likely airspeed.
I suggest that the pilot gave the island of Sumatra a very wide berth before heading southwards. He had done all he could to render the plane untraceable and invisible to radar – and he did not abandon this policy. He had no reason to take a direct route towards any point, and the length of his diversion tallies with the distance by which the search area has now been moved northwards. (It might even be moved northwards again.)
It was during this period of invisibility, I suggest, when the plane could still be safely landed, that the pilot's confederates secretly issued their political demands to the Malaysian Government. These demands may have included the release from prison of an opposition politician (related by marriage to the pilot) convicted the previous day on trumped-up charges of sodomy. Whether the Government stood firm against these demands disregarding the impending fatalities, or simply dithered into paralysis as time slowly ran out, we cannot yet be sure.
I suggest that the pilot gave the island of Sumatra a very wide berth before heading southwards. He had done all he could to render the plane untraceable and invisible to radar – and he did not abandon this policy. He had no reason to take a direct route towards any point, and the length of his diversion tallies with the distance by which the search area has now been moved northwards. (It might even be moved northwards again.)
It was during this period of invisibility, I suggest, when the plane could still be safely landed, that the pilot's confederates secretly issued their political demands to the Malaysian Government. These demands may have included the release from prison of an opposition politician (related by marriage to the pilot) convicted the previous day on trumped-up charges of sodomy. Whether the Government stood firm against these demands disregarding the impending fatalities, or simply dithered into paralysis as time slowly ran out, we cannot yet be sure.
write a book. Even if the conspiracy story is not true, it sure is a seller.
TheVat
Valued Senior Member
Just a necromancer, engaged in necroposting, intoning casually: "recent update on the ongoing mystery..."
Gotta say, the no-find no-fee agreement Ocean Infinity offers is a pretty bold business model.
Gotta say, the no-find no-fee agreement Ocean Infinity offers is a pretty bold business model.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Perhaps it's a loss leader to get the company better known. Though if they fail, as seems likely, I'm not sure how much it will help them gain future business.
TheVat
Valued Senior Member
Any link from a reputable source to back up your murder/suicide tale? The evidence I've seen seems inconclusive.
In the words of HL Mencken, "Explanations exist; they have existed for all time; there is always a well-known solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong."
In the words of HL Mencken, "Explanations exist; they have existed for all time; there is always a well-known solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong."
Pinball1970
Valued Senior Member
This is worth watching. Speculation but from the experts in the investigation team and using the evidence available to them.