Is Yellowstone going to blow?
- Thread starter Crunchy Cat
- Start date
See, I think the reason sensationalist articles like these about impending disasters do so well in the news is because secretly, deep down, everyone has a part of them that wants to see something like this happen. Few people would admit to it, but it's always there.
George Carlin was one of the few who was very vocal about it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxK3j9EwCA8
George Carlin was one of the few who was very vocal about it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxK3j9EwCA8
The article itself wasn't sensationalist though, it's been the responses to the article that have been sensationalist.
All the articles i've seen have (essentially) said that the scientests are keeping an eye on the earthquake swarm in case it's a prelude to bigger earthquake activity. The region has, in the past, produced magnitude 7 earthquakes apparently unrelated to volcanic activity.
Burada, according to USGS INSAR data:
The resurgent domes have continued rising (doesn't neccessarily mean anything) and the North Rim Uplift Anomaly began subsiding - so essentially, aside from this earthquake swarm, which although of interest, is unremarkable compared to some that have been historically recorded - a continuation of the trends observed in that graph.
If you're genuinely interested, here's a link to the USGS YVO site.
The resurgent domes have continued rising (doesn't neccessarily mean anything) and the North Rim Uplift Anomaly began subsiding - so essentially, aside from this earthquake swarm, which although of interest, is unremarkable compared to some that have been historically recorded - a continuation of the trends observed in that graph.
If you're genuinely interested, here's a link to the USGS YVO site.
Thanks Trippy for the update. I'll check it out. It's interesting to note that no one was around for the last big supervolcano blast (Toba) approx. 74,000 yeas ago, except for a some club carrying Neandethal dudes. No one knows for sure what will happen exactly up until the final moments when a Supervolcano blows. However, I'm sure it will certainly be a once in a 'final' lifetime experience for those unlucky enough to see it.
We have no reason to suspect that the sequence for a super volcanoe eruption should be any different from that of an ordinary volcanoe. It's simply the scale that is difference.
Interesting point to note: As near as I can tell, the majority of super volcanoes are located in areas where the continental crust is relatively thin, and there is (consequently) a large volume of substantialy viscous magma close to the surface. Based on what I know of volcano physics, this isn't a coincidence.
Actually, it's not as useless as you seem to be trying to imply it is, neither is talking about the weather, but in both cases it depends on whether or not you know what you're talking about.
But, if you genuinely feel that way, then perhaps you should petition the USGS to stop monitoring Yellowstone.
Yellowstone is going to blow again someday whether the USGS monitors it or not. Actually, giving the world a week or two advanced notice that it's going blow is not going to solve anything, but probably cause worldwide panic instead. If it's going to blow, then let it blow. Where is humanity going to hide from it anyway? Argentina? If that's the case, grab your gold and go.
isn't it helpful when hurricanes are predicted? Weather forecasting has come very far.
Maybe not in the case of Katrina. Prediction didn't do much good then did it? Even if you are able to predict a super volcano eruption, then what can you do about it? Save yourself? Maybe. But the real key element here is where are you going to go to escape it and what happens in the weeks and months or even years that follows a super volcano eruption? Unless you have stockpiled thousands of cans of pork and beans and cheap wine and a few thousand rounds of guns and ammunition in an underground shelter, then good luck to ya.
I am not here to battle wits with you. You know as well as i do the Katrina was observed long before it hit the gulf.
With years of warning a lot can probably be done. Slightly off topic a truly advanced civilization may need to develop ways to change or modify weather conditions and perhaps alleviate the impact of volcanoes. Would not surprise me if these advancements are being looked into.
With years of warning a lot can probably be done. Slightly off topic a truly advanced civilization may need to develop ways to change or modify weather conditions and perhaps alleviate the impact of volcanoes. Would not surprise me if these advancements are being looked into.
No need John99 to battle wits with anyone. Supervolcanos and big asteroids are the probably the big 'equalizer' for mankind's existance. In the case of Toba (approx. 74,000 years ago), mankind or what was around at the time (perhaps 60 million club bearing neanderthals or whatever), was essentially wiped out by the Toba's super eruption (maybe down to 10,000 or less individuals) and the aftermath that followed in the months and years that followed. Even if predicated, if the same thing happened today, mankind and what's left of it, can expect some very hard times in terms of survival with those who are still unfortunate enough to still be around. Keep stockpiling those pork and beans folks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll
http://www.semp.us/publications/biot_reader.php?BiotID=164
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll
http://www.semp.us/publications/biot_reader.php?BiotID=164
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What about Mt St Helens? How many People died then, what was it? 8?
Pinatubo?
Should I go on?
Yes, Katrina was a failure, however, don't forget about the successes that have been had as well, because in general, they out number the failures.
Just for starters, we're talking about a potential super eruption on a scale that is approx. 1,000 times bigger. Picture Toba and Yellowstone going off in the same century. No prediction is going to help that kind of outcome, will it? When it comes to a super volcano eruption, anything is possible.
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I'm well aware of that - remember, i'm the one that's been promoting actually finding information out, and posting actual information rather than speculation, I was simply pointing out that not all similar scenarios are total clusterfrags as you would seemingly have us believe.
First of all, do you have some evidence that this is even remotely likely?
According to the information I have, the eruptions from Lake Toba occured 75,000 years ago, 700,000 years ago, and 840,000 years ago, based on that, it seems highly unlikely (to me) that we'll see any activity from lake toba in the next 10,000 years.
Of more concern should be Lake Taupo, which has produced eruptions similar in size to Yellowstone (most larger by at least 10%).
But that's an aside, all your doing is speculation, and it's precisely the sort of speculation that leads to panic.
Case in point, here's an article that suggests in it's abstract that there is a 1% chance of a VEI 8+ eruption in the next 460 years.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/v17amvu0unn4v7v4/
The point is that Yellowstone going up would not be the end of the world, heck, Toba going up would not be the end of the world, we've survived these eruptions with considerably fewer resources than we have now.
And inspite of your prevarications to the opposite, early warning would not be next to useless, as it would enbale us to evacuate people from the immeadiate area, reducing the loss of life, the international community could begin preparing to deal with the fall out, and the american authorities could get themselves into a useful position.
Of course, warning could mean anywhere from hours to weeks, depending on the sequence of events.
I should also point out that a Supereruption is an arbitrary definition based on the volume of ejecta, it carries no special meaning other than that, and all of the information we have from the 46 odd events in the last 35 odd million years suggests that the eruption sequence of a super volcano is no different from any other eruption, it's just (esentially) the magma is thicker.
That is an insult to the Weather Service and to the vast majority of the people of New Orleans who heeded the warnings and predictions made by the Weather Service. Katrina claimed 1800 victims, far too high a number. The reason that the death toll was so high was was because too many private citizens ignored the warnings and because public officials at all levels acted ineptly.
However, the storm would have claimed a heck of a lot more than 1800 victims if we had no warning system. Did you not see the huge line of vehicles leaving New Orleans in the days preceding Katrina's landfall? The warnings saved hundreds of thousands of lives.
The 1900 Galveston hurricane struck without any of the modern warning and predictive capabilities. The result: This one storm killed more people in the US than the total killed by all of the 300+ cyclones that have hit the US since the that storm struck.
I think the best part of these kind of discussions, especially about supervolcanos, is that no one presently living on this planet has ever seen a super eruption before. Whether it be Yellowstone or even worst, Toba, if that ill-fated day ever comes when we do, it won't really matter whether we have three days or even three weeks warning, worldwide panic will grip the globe and all of us will be caught up in it. We will 'all' suffer from the effects of a super eruption on a scale in which none of us are prepared for now or even in the future. And that is probably the only 'true' statement that any of us can make about a supervolcano eruption.
Ophiolite
Valued Senior Member
In any catastrophic situation there are individuals who do not panic. These individuals are called survivors.