Hurricanes

[wet1]

Forecasters believe that this year the hurricanes will be a little less than last year. Predicated to be 10 storms instead of the 15 for last year that was predicated.

Also accuracy is thought to be increased with newer modeling. It is estimated that it will be 10% better in accuracy. It is also thought that for every mile that is evacuated that roughly it costs 1 million dollars so the increase of 20 miles in accuracy has the potential to save 20 million dollars simply by getting a better forecast.

There is also a move to fly remote controlled spotters as opposed to the manned craft now used. This move to make both safer missions and cheaper missions. An Austrialian company has petitioned permission from the FAA and Center for Aerial Reconnaissance to fly the drones for the missions this year. No word yet if premission will be granted.

The above pic is a 3d rendering of hurricane Floyd used for example.

To those who have to deal with hurricanes (it is a pain in the butt!) this is good news. To those who never have I hope you will continue to have such good luck and fortune.

 

[papa_smirf]

luckily it would take one hell of a hurricane to give much more than a little but of rain in minnesota. Still have to deal with tornadoes though (curses).

 

[wet1]

While hurricanes have a general path that is followed it is kind of a shotgun approach. There are usually hours and days of warning before it actually hits. This is unlike in the days before forecasting became a science.

There was a hurricane that hit the Louisana coast (oh I can't remember when but I would guess in the '30's). It leveled the buildings on the barrier islands and continued in to move houses from their foundations and put them on roads along with sailboats and domestic furniture. Storm surge was a tremdous 25 foot wave. Folks then had no warning other than a storm had arrived (most likely a summer thunderstorm). Only it didn't slow down or stop. As night progressed people tied themselves to trees and scrambled to roofs to try to get away fromt he devestation and water. Those that survived could not believe what was left.