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70-80% if a previous infection gives you immunity. If not, then there is no herd immunity threshold. (And there is good evidence that people can get it twice.)
Nope. In the US about 6.5 million people have been diagnosed with it. At least half of infections show no symptoms - so that's 13 million as an estimate. That means in the US 3.9% have had it.
Let the virus go wild, as the Republican Party advocates - (explicitly, at times) - and if the preliminary numbers on immunity strength and duration are sound we could achieve herd immunity in a few months.
Nope.
He seems to have underestimated the role of the "superspreader", at least in the US where test and trace is impossible, but it makes little practical difference.
If he's right, the standards for efficacy in a vaccine would be eased a bit - but we don't have a vaccine yet, so that's a future consideration.
Meanwhile, we haven't testing enough for any hypothetical herd immunity fraction to alter policy anyway. Regardless of the fraction, we need to slow the spread and reduce the rate of approach - the rest is theoretically relevant only. We know there is no herd immunity at the 4 or 5 % level we're at.
A few notes:
He says "The fact that there are so many cases is a blessing, because, with such a young population, these cases are a de facto vaccine." That is only true if infection confers immunity. That is apparently not always true with COVID-19.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ic-virus-twice-study-suggests-no-reason-panic
He also says "Rather than confining our youth for a cold that might not even spread in its asymptomatic form, perhaps its time to start confining some of the public health officials … to a mental health facility."
That's not even worth a reply, and discredits anything else he might say on the subject.
It is also false if too many of the young are severely injured by infection, if the young spread the disease to those more likely to suffer, or if the long term effects of the disease are severe and not limited to symptomatic initial infections.
The guy does not appear to have thought through the matter. The whole point of a vaccine is to avoid the risk and hardship of infection.
Worked as Medic on offshore oil rigs and each crew change a new batch of infections would come on board
Take at least 2 days for new bugs to spread and all crew to assimilate new bugs
Only talking 100 crew total and confined small area
Way to build up, for us and others with same type life style, good strong immune system
Working in hospital staff CAN build up strong immune system so CAN be good for staff but not good for visitors going into DISEASE CENTRAL
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Nowhere near and we may never get there. After all, we don't with the common cold, some of which is caused by.........coronaviruses.
But we may get immunity eventually or, if not that, at least enough resistance in the population to make this illness more tolerable, as happened with 'flu'. We can't know this, though, until several more years have elapsed.
There is no quick fix for this and we had better get used to that. It will be mastered in the end I am sure, but we will need the sort of patience that modern people, in our childish "I want it now" culture, seem to lack. Think in years, not months, would be my advice, cf. AIDS.
How many died? How many were crippled?
It would take about two months to "assimilate" the Covid plague virus. On average one or two of each 100 crewmen would be killed by it, and three or four disabled severely enough to be unable to work.
Are you aware of how many nurses, maintenance staff, and doctors, have been killed or severely crippled by this virus? The closest I can come to a death count is this from last May: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/600-us-health-care-workers-died-covid-19/story?id=71132667
and there is no count at all of the cripplings, extended recoveries, etc, in the US.
The US lacks the ability to gather reliable national data about such things in the first place, and what little local or regional data would be available normally has been damaged and/or prevented by the current Federal administration - apparently for political reasons.
Not sure exactly you are requesting
- on oilrig none that I know off and none from other medics
- in hospital situations (wider range of bugs) I am guessing some due to staff coming into contact with rarer bugs (for them) - well COVID-19 proves that
- in general population, as above times X. Again shown by COVID-19
I've been in Bali close to 6 months now. I can say I have not suffered any COVID-19 Sym as generally described BUT since have never been tested
I DON'T KNOW IF HAVE HAD OR NEVER HAD COVID-19
Regardless I don't guess, follow all mandated protocols plus a few others learnt from my profession
For the rig 2 per 100 gives a 2% death rate
The below link gives a wide range. I would contend the stats would be complicated by many with comorbidity problems
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
I keep reasonable up to date but I am not obsessed
Your post seems to imply I am going for the "let it loose" option. I'm NOT
I would go for the sicker you make yourself through lifestyle choices the more you push yourself into the "has comorbidity problems" group
I do not lead a lifestyle constantly on alert for diseases or infections sneaking up on me, I think my immune system seems to doing the alert part for me, and I think I obtained my alert immune system from my lifestyle
Coffee moment
And 1 per 100 would give a 1% death rate. Wonderful stuff, arithmetic.
Comorbidity problems are also known as "life". They don't complicate the stats, they are the stats.
Complicate in the sense of did the person die
- FROM COVID-19 ie did COVID-19 give him lethal symptoms seperate from what the body all ready had
- WITH COVID-19 ie COVID-19 did not kill but a comorbidity problem already present beat COVID-19 to causing death
- COMORBIDITY PROBLEM ie asthma exacerbated by COVID-19
- COVID-19
- Asthma
- Asthma complicated by COVID-19
Covid-19 almost never "gives symptoms" (lethal or otherwise) separate from what the body "all ready had". Neither does any other disease.
For example, being male is a comorbidity factor afflicting many Covid-19 victims. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/co...finds-age-gender-diabetes-increase-death-rate. Nevertheless, being male is seldom listed on the death certificates of men as a contributing cause of death from Covid-19. Do you think it should be?
That would depend on what killed them, presumably.
In the US so far the main effect of that kind of complication has been to increase the tendency to undercount the deaths caused by Covid-19 - oft en (in the US) people who die outside hospitals are not even tested for Covid-19, for example, and those who die of something other than direct Covid damage are seldom evaluated for the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on their medical care. The undercount of Covid deaths in the US - from that and related considerations - has been estimated in the tens of thousands.
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So very few people die FROM COVID-19, more die from (insert disease here) complicated by COVID-19. Got it
The male / female split is more likely to, ñot a cause
Hundreds of thousands of people have and will die from Covid-19, in the US.
So you agree that comorbidity factors are not automatically causes of death. Progress.
The observation: Like all lethal diseases and most other causes of death, Covid more rapidly, easily, and frequently kills the more vulnerable. In the past that did not baffle people - one expects a cause of death to afflict a population unevenly.
Meanwhile, as noted, those who have checked have discovered that deaths from Covid-19 in the US are being significantly undercounted - not overcounted. For a variety of reasons beginning with (and largely derived from) governmental incompetence, Covid-19 is the cause of death of many people who are listed as dying from something else.
This is a recently visible and highlighted example of a long-discussed problem with the public health system in the US: it no longer gathers and provides reliable statistics. The kicker is that the US all but invented the modern public health system - the thirty or forty countries with better systems now set them up according to what they had learned from the US. The US was admired, respected, almost revered, for its public health care system - including its data bank.
Those with leftwing quality memories will be able to put an approximate date on the beginning of the degradation - as with most such inflection points in the graphs of US socioeconomic trends, it's in the early to mid 1980s - and a cause: the policy and structure changes in governance introduced by the first of the modern Republican Presidents, the first of the openly fascist Republican administrations. They were widely discussed at the time, and their effects we see now were predicted - although left libertarian access to major media was already heavily restricted and censored, so the predictions and warnings found only smaller and more specialized audiences than those available to the authoritarian right.
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Well, sort of. It's like saying that blood loss rather than the gunshot wound killed someone. True, technically - but being shot is what caused his death.
Possibly worded as
Cause of death - Gunshot wound leading to significant blood loss causing death