As the ratio of workers to retirees falls from 3.25 to 1, as it is now, to just 2.25 to 1 by 2025, the burden of pensions will rise remorselessly; the cost of health care incalculably.
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To raise taxes sufficiently to meet these commitments would stifle growth and erode the tax base, Mr Greenspan fears. Because raising taxes is dangerous, the Fed chairman believes that Congress should lower them, by extending Mr Bush’s tax cuts into the future. This non sequitur has been gratefully received by the Republican side of the House. But Mr Greenspan combines this recommendation with another: that Congress reinstitute the “pay-go” rules of the 1990s, which require that tax cuts be matched by spending cuts. This recommendation goes down less well with Republicans.
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If nothing were done on the other side of the ledger (ie, if real spending per head were held steady) the budget deficit for the year 2014 would stand at $687 billion, the think-tank calculates. But under Mr Greenspan’s pay-go logic, these tax cuts would have to be matched by cuts in spending. Where would the cleaver fall?
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The Brookings Institution identifies some choice cuts of corporate pork, politely referred to as commercial subsidies, the removal of which could save the federal government $137.5 billion. For example, air traffic control could be privatised, agricultural prices left unsupported, and fossil-fuel research left to the oil companies. Brookings reckons the federal government could save another $123 billion by leaving education, housing, training, local law enforcement and environmental protection to states and localities. Abolishing manned spaceflight, slowing the growth of the National Institutes of Health and putting the screws on discretionary spending could save a further $56.5 billion. In all, the Brookings budget wonks find $326 billion-worth of savings for the year 2014: no small chunk of change, but not even close to what is needed to balance the budget.
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*comment: even with DEEP cuts in social programs the tax cuts have put the US into a hole*
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Social Security will rise from 4.2% of GDP in 2010 to 6.2% by 2040
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Medicare and Medicaid expenditures combined will rise from 4.6% of GDP in 2010 to 10.1% in 2040. These projections, said Mr Greenspan, are both vivid and sobering.
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