Events in Syria and Iraq Thread #2

It seems the artillery attacks have not escalated today, despite the fact that the Kurds have made solid progress today. But today they have not attacked that much Azaz, they seem to surround it. What matters for the Kurds is, I would guess, not that much Azaz itself as the movement toward the East, toward the Euphrat.

I would think that, given that until now the support is artillery only, the Kurds prefer to go East deeper inside the Syrian territory. It seems the Syrian army does not object, given the strange change of control of Kafr Naya, which was liberated originally by the SAA but is now controlled by the Kurds. (I don't believe the story that it was retaken by the rebels and then retaken by the Kurds, this may be a cover story to hide the whole degree of cooperation.) This would certainly increase the costs of a Turkish attack - to cut the Kurds, they would have to go deep into Syrian territory, and therefore there would be a lot of place for attacks by the Syrian and Russian airforce. To punch a Turkish supply corridor from the North would mean open war with Assad, because they would have to cut through territory controlled by the SAA too.

I think the Kurds for some time leave Azaz untouched, so that the Turks have some "victory" as heroic defenders of Azaz and are not provoked to go further. To protect Tal Rif'at is already too late. Given that a small Azaz enclave is strategically useless once the jihadi highway is cut, it will be taken later without much problems. If they go East from Kafr Naya, they will be around 20 km from the Turkish border, which is already a quite safe distance.

So, you see I'm today a little bit more optimistic about the probability of a Turkish war.

PS: Kuweiris was encircled by Daesh, but never surrendered, with some finally 300 soldiers protecting it over three years.
 
That's my impression too, the great news is that there has been reached some agreement between SDF and a lot of local groups that they give up Marea without fighting. This would be already a solid frontline between the SDF and Daesh. They already seem to control Kafr Naseh, which borders with Daesh.

This has the consequence that the Kurds can now go East not by fighting "good Turkmen rebels", but fighting Daesh, and the job for Erdogan to oppose the Kurds fighting Daesh is much harder.
 
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Here is the new topology of the situation in Northern Aleppo. The grey area are Al Qaida and friends (also named "moderate rebels" by jihadi defenders), dark is Daesh (IS, ISIS), yellow are Kurds, more accurate SDF, which is a coalition between Kurds and some Arabs, an US idea, but the large majority of SDF are Kurds. Whatever, politically useful because less dangerous, the Turks have an excuse if SDF ignores the red lines drawn by Turkey against the Kurds, once they are not Kurds but Arabs with some Kurds. The red region is that controlled by the Syrian army.

So, the enclave around Azaz in the North is now strategically useless. It does no longer allow to transport weapons and jihadists to useful places like Aleppo, nor does it prevent the Kurds from going East of Azaz - they have already done it.
 
Schmelzer said:
CbVveHLUEAEdyvH.jpg


Here is the new topology of the situation in Northern Aleppo. The grey area are Al Qaida and friends (also named "moderate rebels" by jihadi defenders), dark is Daesh (IS, ISIS), yellow are Kurds, more accurate SDF, which is a coalition between Kurds and some Arabs, an US idea, but the large majority of SDF are Kurds. Whatever, politically useful because less dangerous, the Turks have an excuse if SDF ignores the red lines drawn by Turkey against the Kurds, once they are not Kurds but Arabs with some Kurds. The red region is that controlled by the Syrian army.

So, the enclave around Azaz in the North is now strategically useless. It does no longer allow to transport weapons and jihadists to useful places like Aleppo, nor does it prevent the Kurds from going East of Azaz - they have already done it.
Click to expand...
800px-Northern_Aleppo_offensive_%282016%29.svg.png
 
Russia killed more Syrian civilians than either ISIS or Assad in January.

"Russia killed more civilians than the Syrian army and Islamist group Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria in January, according to the independent watchdog the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR).

A report by the organization, which uses Syrian civil servants in the country’s provinces to verify news about deaths, alleges that throughout last month Russian airstrikes killed 679 civilians, of whom 94 were children and 73 were women.

This is higher than the estimate of how many people the Syrian government has allegedly killed in the same timeframe."


http://www.newsweek.com/russia-has-...ilians-assad-or-isis-last-month-report-426775
 
It appears Russia is once again not being honest about its casualty numbers. Reports indicate Russians are understating their Syrian and Ukrainian casualties. A few days ago I read an article stating disease was a significant problem for Russians operating in Syria. That struck me as so basic, I was surprised. That's a throwback to a bygone era when it was common to lose more troops to illness than combat.

http://news.sky.com/story/1610413/russia-hiding-syria-conflict-death-toll
 
The actual line of your map seems fine, with Sheikh Isa and Marea not yet included (I would also wait here for confirmations that the agreement has really worked).

But the red dotted line, which seems to indicate some position before the latest offensive is quite strange. The SAA has never been as close to Al Bab, except on some twitter fantasies which lasted not more than half a day. That region North of Aleppo has also never been controlled by the SAA during the time I have cared about this. It looks like the region which had been controlled by Al Nusra and friends and then taken by Daesh.

Casualty reports are the most dubious part of all reports about wars, because it is so easy to fake them, nobody can check them. If a place is controlled by army X or Y can be seen, checked and proven. That during the fight 300 enemies have been killed but only two own soldiers, and 20 women and children have been murdered by the evil enemy, is what one cannot prove. So lies are so common that I will not comment on such things. In this question, I don't believe anybody.
 
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It looks like the Syrian army is completing its encirclement of Islamic State forces east of Aleppo, south of Al Bab and west of the Kuweires ar base.

http://www.edmaps.com/html/eastern_aleppo_-_february_20__.html

Depending on how large an ISIS force is surrounded, and on whether it is able to fight its way out, this could turn into a very significant government victory.
 
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Yes, I have written in the other, old thread about this. It is completed, and one can be quite sure that it will be very hard to fight a way out (on the North, they have a canal full of water, easy to defend, in the East you can expect very safe defense lines, given that this was over several months now the only connection to the Kuweiris airport, thus, they should have expected an attack there to encircle the airport again, and had a long time to prepare for this.

The Daesh force may not be that large, I have seen the expectation of 800+. I would not wonder if they even offer them a free transport to Raqqa in exchange for getting the whole region for free. Anyway, the number of forces necessary to surround them is usually greater than those encircled.
 
Indications today are that ISIS forces have evacuated their surrounded pocket of territory, apparently in agreement with the Syrian army. So it looks like a negotiated surrender took place in which the encircled ISIS fighters were given the opportunity to leave and the Syrians avoided having to fight them. The Syrians still haven't announced these events publicly.

http://www.edmaps.com/html/eastern_aleppo_-_february_21__.html
 
The question if there was agreement with the Syrian army about evacuation or if their main forces have left the area before encirclement, leaving only a few fanatics at the power plant and some suicide attackers elsewhere, can be left to historical science. The fighting is over in the pocket.
 
Another smaller encirclement seems to be underway around the village of Rasm al Abd. Given its location, I'm guessing that it's occupied by ISIS fighters who were tasked with trying to prevent the larger Syrian army encirclement from being completed. They might be given the opportunity to leave as well if they stop fighting.
 
The Syrian army seems to make some progress clearing the road. Rasm Al-Nafal, where all this started, is already taken, the fight is ongoing in Khanasser and Shillalah Al-Kabeera
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/tiger-forces-enter-shillalah-al-kabeera-in-southeast-homs/ (Khanasser is a village, not a imperative city, SCNR.) Yesterday was a twitter claim that a whole convoy of IS coming from Palmyra was destroyed by RuAF.

Given that all this happens in near desert, where the Daesh cannot easily hide and has no prepared places to hide, this will be a costly thing for Daesh. How much time one needs to clear this is, of course, unclear, but it is quite clear that it will happen. Let's hope they need less than the two weeks they needed the last time.
 
It's pretty distant from Syria and Iraq, but reports in the French press (le Monde) say that French special forces are fighting in Libya against ISIS. The French defense ministry has no comment but are investigating leaks to the press, which is a sort of verifcation in itself. Libyans verify their presence, saying that 15 French special forces are in Benghazi, alongside squad-sized groups of British (SAS?) and American special forces. They are reportedly engaged in training Libyans, mission planning, collecting intelligence, designating ISIS targets and so on. Apparently similar sized contingents from the same countries are operating out of a former Libyan air base in Misrata.

http://www.theeagle.com/news/world/...cle_c1675b08-cb75-5ae6-adf2-d6142b6d72f2.html

In other news from Libya, ISIS fighters attacked the downtown police headquarters in Sabratha (west of Tripoli near the Tunisian border, where the US conducted air strikes a few days ago) and cut off the heads of 11 or 12 police officers, before withdrawing.
 
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One part of the road to Aleppo, from Khanasser to Aleppo, is now again under government control again.

On the part from Khanasser to Ithriya there seem to be some fighting in a nearby village, but as far as I understand the road itself is not cut. The road from Ithriya to Aleppo is not yet declared safe for civilians, but probably will be soon. There is, yet, a cut on the part from Ithriya to Sheikh Hilal.

At the same time, the Syrian troops have reached the border between Latakia and Idlib and are, now, again also in the government Idlib. Of course, largely symbolic, but an important symbol.

The following map was claimed on twitter (that means, quite uncertain) as the map indicating the regions of ceasefire:

CcFwsgFWIAAwMgZ.jpg


In other words, these are regions where anyway nothing serious has happened. The map itself is quite strange and suspect, but the relation between ceasefire zones and Al Nusra zones is what I would expect.
 
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