Environmental impact analysis: older vehicle v. new electric vehicle

[parmalee]

To be fair, I am advised that it is greener to run an old vehicle into the ground than to replace it, due to the emissions involved in manufacture of new vehicles being so large compared to those from operation. On that basis I am continuing to run my 20r old petrol VW Golf as long as possible, before investing an electric vehicle, which is what I plan to do when it conks out. Cradle-to-grave analysis can yield results that are not immediately obvious.

I've been curious about this for a long time, but given the huge number of variables, substantive data is hard to find.

In the U.S., the average car on the road is about 12 years old. Cars, in general, "last" about 14 years; whereas electric cars are expected/estimated to last about 21 years. People replace their cars after approximately 8 years. I'm not even sure whether or not these numbers conflict with each other, but they are the numbers that are out there--or at least the ones I happened to come across. Your mileage may vary.

What about a well-functioning 20/30/40 year old gas car? How does maintaining such a vehicle compare with scrapping such and replacing it with an electric vehicle?

I have a 40 year old VW Westfalia. People with vehicles like that, and with vehicles of that age (and older) generally, care as much about the cosmetics as they do the rest. For me that's a non-issue--it looks like crap. I just want a reliable vehicle that can climb a mountain on a very poor logging road with ease, and which I can comfortably live in, if and when I choose. In theory, it would also fare well in the event of recurring EMPs, nuclear holocaust, zombie apocalypse, alien invasion, etc. and, as with older Jeeps, Land Rovers and the like, if, say, the side mirror breaks/falls off, you can with fix with whatever crap you've got lying around in a box and not have to buy an 800 dollar custom molded plastic piece of garbage.

But what about the overall environmental impact of such a vehicle (as compared with replacing such...)? Emissions aren't great, but it gets over 30 mpg--it's not like it's some massive 8 cylinder behemoth that gets like 12 mpg. Moreover, it was already manufactured 40 odd years ago. With all factors considered, I suppose that it ultimately comes down to the window of time which we are considering, but... still, I'd just like to see some data and analysis.

 

[exchemist]

I've been curious about this for a long time, but given the huge number of variables, substantive data is hard to find.

In the U.S., the average car on the road is about 12 years old. Cars, in general, "last" about 14 years; whereas electric cars are expected/estimated to last about 21 years. People replace their cars after approximately 8 years. I'm not even sure whether or not these numbers conflict with each other, but they are the numbers that are out there--or at least the ones I happened to come across. Your mileage may vary.

What about a well-functioning 20/30/40 year old gas car? How does maintaining such a vehicle compare with scrapping such and replacing it with an electric vehicle?

I have a 40 year old VW Westfalia. People with vehicles like that, and with vehicles of that age (and older) generally, care as much about the cosmetics as they do the rest. For me that's a non-issue--it looks like crap. I just want a reliable vehicle that can climb a mountain on a very poor logging road with ease, and which I can comfortably live in, if and when I choose. In theory, it would also fare well in the event of recurring EMPs, nuclear holocaust, zombie apocalypse, alien invasion, etc. and, as with older Jeeps, Land Rovers and the like, if, say, the side mirror breaks/falls off, you can with fix with whatever crap you've got lying around in a box and not have to buy an 800 dollar custom molded plastic piece of garbage.

But what about the overall environmental impact of such a vehicle (as compared with replacing such...)? Emissions aren't great, but it gets over 30 mpg--it's not like it's some massive 8 cylinder behemoth that gets like 12 mpg. Moreover, it was already manufactured 40 odd years ago. With all factors considered, I suppose that it ultimately comes down to the window of time which we are considering, but... still, I'd just like to see some data and analysis.

I suppose that logically there will eventually come a crossover point, at which the lifetime CO2 emissions from an IC engined vehicle will exceed the emissions from manufacture of an electric replacement. But the mean lifetime of a car is a lot less than 40 years, more like 15-20.

billvon may know more about this trade-off - it's his kind of thing.

 

[parmalee]

I suppose that logically there will eventually come a crossover point, at which the lifetime CO2 emissions from an IC engined vehicle will exceed the emissions from manufacture of an electric replacement. But the mean lifetime of a car is a lot less than 40 years, more like 15-20.

billvon may know more about this trade-off - it's his kind of thing.

Yeah, the sources I've seen suggest around a 14 year lifespan.

To me, that seems rather short. Keep in mind that in the US we've got sizable regions that are more conducive to automotive longevity than just about anywhere in the UK: drier climates and little or no snowfall. We've also got better roads--they're newer, for obvious reasons, but road health has always been a greater priority here than human health, as well.

 

[billvon]

billvon may know more about this trade-off - it's his kind of thing.

There's no one number, and it depends on a great many things. For example, if you are asking "when does an EV start being less carbon intensive than a gas car?" that depends on where you are (and thus where your electricity comes from) what sort of cars you are comparing, how many miles you drive, how you drive (EVs save more energy in cities) etc.

But very roughly, taking averages in the US, it takes 12-18 months before an EV is less carbon intensive than a gas car.

 

[Jeeves]

I can almost begin to imagine that we'll be able to afford one when we trade in our current car.

 

[billvon]

I can almost begin to imagine that we'll be able to afford one when we trade in our current car.

Used EVs are currently cheaper than equivalent used gas cars - so if you want to go used you already have an option.

 

[Ken Fabian]

I can almost begin to imagine that we'll be able to afford one when we trade in our current car.

China's CATL has just released improved Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) EV batteries that have energy density and driving range as good as the NMC (Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt) that are the current preferred EV batteries, that appear capable of reducing battery costs by half in one hit, possibly because they don't use those expensive "critical" metals. Of course legacy manufacturers outside China, having got what they wanted - don't want to, don't have to - are now hopping about madly like Aesop's hare, demanding impediments and obstacles for their not so plodding competition to protect their ICE businesses whilst they play catch up. Or just to protect their ICE businesses. The tariffs to save them will double the price of any Chinese built EV's in the US (under an administration that ostensibly wants to fast track decarbonization). EU is putting thirty something percent tariffs on them. This will make it harder than it could be to afford one.

As a general observation the sooner the switch to EV's by all manufacturers the sooner overall emissions will come down and my own view of this is that it is a manufacturer and energy supplier responsibility to speed that up, if necessary by carbon pricing and threat of manufacturer climate legal liablity, because individuals by their choices can't get to zero emissions until those are widely available lower cost options; going all stone age doesn't fix the problem and doesn't lead to those who go all out to have zero personal emissions being taken any more seriously, speakin of hypocrisy. More like seen as fanatics.

There will be sunk costs and embedded emissions in the ongoing ICE inventory but I think better a lot of ICE vehicles get scrapped early and replaced by EV's than continuing to run them using the argument that somehow this is a lower emissions choice.

 

[billvon]

China's CATL has just released improved Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) EV batteries that have energy density and driving range as good as the NMC (Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt) that are the current preferred EV batteries, that appear capable of reducing battery costs by half in one hit, possibly because they don't use those expensive "critical" metals. Of course legacy manufacturers outside China, having got what they wanted - don't want to, don't have to - are now hopping about madly like Aesop's hare, demanding impediments and obstacles for their not so plodding competition to protect their ICE businesses whilst they play catch up.

Well, LFP's have some significant problems. First off they do not have the density of NCA/NMC lithium ion, so ranges will be less. (Even with CATL's latest blade cell offerings.) And they have more severe low temperature limitations than lithium ion, which means they can't be charged below about 32F. This is a significant limitation in most places on Earth.

Hopefully this will improve, but for now that will limit their effectiveness in most places.

 

[Jeeves]

Used EVs are currently cheaper than equivalent used gas cars - so if you want to go used you already have an option.

It's never so much a question of what we want as what funds are available.
Okay, I just did a quick check, and they're still rather pricey. The big red question my brief perusal raised was: Why are people selling one- and two-year-old vehicles? What are they unhappy about?

 

[billvon]

The big red question my brief perusal raised was: Why are people selling one- and two-year-old vehicles? What are they unhappy about?

I would imagine the same reason they are selling one and two year old gas cars. They want a different one, or they can't afford the payments any more, or their situation changed (i.e. they had to move overseas or something.)

 

[Ken Fabian]

billvon LFP Above 200kWh/kg is in the range of NMC, though some NMC are higher. Improved fast charging ability is a plus. Claimed 1.000km range would depend on the specific vehicle and won't be the most popular or suitable models and I know, there is always hype... so let's wait and see.

I wasn't aware of insurmountable cold weather performance problems for new LFP but if it a case of enough cost reduction think temperature management that includes preheating batteries if necessary can be a workable compromise; it seems a simpler problem to find solutions for than significantly reducing battery costs is. It is also the case that other manufacturers have other kinds of better batteries approaching mass manufacture too; CATL's Shenxing batteries are more indicative of potential for better than all solved. A couple of years ago I thought halving battery costs would mark the beginning of the end for ICE.

Jeeves - I wonder if it is a case of EV's as luxury brands, which includes people who buy new and upgrade often. Vehicles coming to the market relatively new, at the high end see high depreciation. Also EV's are still a bit too different for a lot of people - a home charger to buy and have installed to get started will bring that home. The reliability and low maintenance, even the charging costs vs filling up are advantages people appreciate in hindsight, not advance.

 

[Ken Fabian]

CATL's latest blade cell offerings.

Blade cells is BYD, not CATL, but both are finding value in improved LFP.

 

[C C]

[...] The big red question my brief perusal raised was: Why are people selling one- and two-year-old vehicles? What are they unhappy about?

Multiple factors influencing both owners and potential buyers. It doesn't matter whether some concerns are real (personally experienced, observed second-hand, study/expert verified) or circulating claims ranging from exaggerated to bogus. They're all influential in this media and viral saturated era. A sampling of common culture vogues:

• The Charging Infrastructure Challenge. Many drivers face a significant obstacle if switching to an EV: the availability of charging stations. Lots of apartment complexes haven’t yet installed them. Those who park on the street may have no way of running a power line to the vehicle (also pedestrians complaining about mazes of power cords running across neighborhood sidewalks). Skepticism towards electric cars is growing. With 52% of those unlikely to consider an EV citing problems with charging infrastructure, Data reveals that 70% of those who switch back to ICE cars do so because of charging. Even in developed areas like California, EV owners complain about the lack of fast chargers and their reliability in less developed areas across America. EV owners often have to cover long distances just to get to a public charger.
  
  
• The Range Anxiety Dilemma. Range and charging anxiety are the top concerns for those who drive significant miles each day. (Lots of vast, open distances in the US, compared to the UK or small and densely-packed countries.)
  
  
• The Speed of Technological Advancements and Buyer’s Remorse. The EV industry is characterized by rapid technological advancements. Each year new models with improved range, faster charging times and enhanced features are introduced.
  
  
• EVs as Secondary Vehicles. Only 47% say they're likely to consider an EV. In other words, EVs are primarily seen as secondary vehicles and are mainly bought by wealthy households.
  
  
• The Hidden Costs of Running EVs. Contrary to popular belief, EVs are often more expensive to run than most ICE cars. While charging at home can be cheaper, a home charger can only add 30 to 40 miles overnight in most cases. Therefore, EV owners are still forced to use public chargers, which are not cheap. Moreover, EVs are more expensive in many other ways. Insurance premiums are significantly higher, and in the case of accidents, EVs are more expensive to repair due to their specific features and lack of trained personnel.
  
  
• The Reliability Question of EVs. In the early days of EVs, experts touted their reliability due to fewer mechanical parts compared to internal combustion vehicles. However, recent years have shown a gap between theory and practice. EVs have proven to be less reliable than initially thought. A recent Consumer Reports study encompassing hundreds of thousands of vehicles produced between 2020-23, reveals that EVs are more problematic than gas powered cars. They account for 80% of issues often stemming from their high tech systems, including battery integration and software. Even infotainment systems pose problems. Some critics also highlight build quality issues as manufacturers cut corners to reduce the high production costs associated with battery electric vehicles.
  
  
• Igniting Fear. The electric vehicle industry has recently been rattled by a string of fire incidents often linked to lithium ion batteries. These accidents have stoked safety concerns and influenced potential EV buyers.
  
  
• The Affordability of Hybrids. When we talk about practical reasons, hybrids are a significant factor contributing to the dwindling interest in EVs.
  
  
• The High Price Tag of EVs. Despite recent discounts making EVs more affordable,they still carry a hefty price tag compared to conventional cars. Last year, the average transaction price for an EV was nearly $53,000, while gas powered cars averaged around $42,000.

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[TheVat]

A lot of the EV anxiety seems to hinge on novelty and particular techs that are not quite matured. All the targets are moving, but people can be influenced by narratives spun primarily by partisan sources living in the grimy pockets of Big Oil and come to view current hiccups in tech development as more chronic and widespread than they are. The cars afire scare relies on ignoring the obvious, a much higher incidence of fires in ICE vehicles (consider what the C stands for). The carbon in production concern seems to strain at swallowing a gnat, given that an average US motorist clocks in at 14,000 mpy. The math suggests you pass crossover point in a year or two, and then (depending on how your local watts are generated) massively reduce your co2 footprint.

The tricky call, with my present car, the fuel-miserly Honda Fit, is:

Do I scrap it when I make the switch so that it's carbon spewing days are done, or sell it on a market where such economy sedans are in short supply thus possibly keeping someone from buying a less efficient vehicle. You see working class and poor people here buying jalopies that get 15-22 mpg (and burn oil due to costly repairs deferred) not because they want to personally melt a glacier but because that's all they could find. So (sounds like I'm answering my own question here) giving them a great low price on a well-maintained 40 mpg Honda would seem to result in lower net carbon than just junking it.

 

[Jeeves]

• The Charging Infrastructure Challenge.
• The Range Anxiety Dilemma.

These - as well as the last point - seem to me reasons not to buy one in the first place. The infrastructure is still something of an obstacle where I live, though I see more charging stations now, which mostly sit idle. The range issue is fast disappearing, possibly even in the past two years.
Several others affect only people way above my tax bracket.

• The Reliability Question of EVs.
  
  
• Igniting Fear.

Those would certainly give me pause. But of course, I'd do some thorough research before deciding on whether and which. I guess not everyone does that.

For now, we have a Hyundai Venue, which is quite economical and useful enough. They call the trunk space 'cosy' - I call it a pain in the ass when bringing bulky items home from the city. It also has a reputation for spontaneous combustion, so we carry a fire extinguisher - so far, all is well. Otherwise, it's a pretty decent car.
I don't suppose I'll ever get one with a solar skin.

 

[Sarkus]

• While charging at home can be cheaper, a home charger can only add 30 to 40 miles overnight in most cases. Therefore, EV owners are still forced to use public chargers, which are not cheap.

This isn't true. A home charger should be able fully charge your car battery, although will depend on the rating of the charger, in 8 hours or less.
Sure, if you just plug it into your mains, but this is not recommended by any manufacturer. And the US is even slower than the UK/EU doing that due to only using 110/120v.

As for home-chargers, a typical one (one of the cheaper but slower options) will be 7.4kw, and a typical EV battery is c.60 kWh, so charging from zero to full should take c.8 hours. And this will give you far more than 30-40 miles overnight. An EV might run at anything from 2 to 4 (or more) miles per kWh, depending on factors (driving style, weather etc), so to that 60kwh battery, that 8hr charging, should be good for 120+ miles. Probably closer to 200.

 

[C C]

While charging at home can be cheaper, a home charger can only add 30 to 40 miles overnight in most cases. Therefore, EV owners are still forced to use public chargers, which are not cheap.

This isn't true. A home charger should be able fully charge your car battery, although will depend on the rating of the charger, in 8 hours or less.
Sure, if you just plug it into your mains, but this is not recommended by any manufacturer. And the US is even slower than the UK/EU doing that due to only using 110/120v.

As for home-chargers, a typical one (one of the cheaper but slower options) will be 7.4kw, and a typical EV battery is c.60 kWh, so charging from zero to full should take c.8 hours. And this will give you far more than 30-40 miles overnight. An EV might run at anything from 2 to 4 (or more) miles per kWh, depending on factors (driving style, weather etc), so to that 60kwh battery, that 8hr charging, should be good for 120+ miles. Probably closer to 200.

Obviously it's the Level 1 charger that this particular meme is referring to, or is trying to portray as being the most prevalent (in the US). Again, the point is that those are a sampling of some of the common influences circulating around out there that can tweak the minds of people in a negative direction, regardless of their accuracy and how out of date they may contingently be.

Although homes in the US will have some 240V outlets for dryers, electric stoves, etc -- a new one might have to be installed in a convenient spot for a Level 2 charger (requiring expensive electrical work and possibly having to receive approval in some municipalities). Thus, it's not unwarranted that there is a slow process in upgrading the country to faster home charging.

John Bogna (Apr 8, 2022): "All EVs are sold with a cable adapter that lets them use level 1 chargers (wall outlets) and a separate cable with a J1772 adapter for use with level 2 charging stations. Teslas use their own proprietary plug for their chargers but also come with an adapter, allowing Tesla drivers to use level 2 public charging stations outside the company's network." --How To Geek

John Velasco (May 26, 2024): When I finally plugged the Hyundai Ioniq 6 into a 120V outlet outside of my home, the battery level was 36% with an estimated range of 135 miles. Fast forward 14 hours and 33 minutes later, I proceeded to get into the Ioniq 6 only to realize it managed to get to just 42% overnight — roughly giving it a range of 162 miles. This tacked on an estimated 27 additional miles from where it started the previous night.

I think this is worth pointing out because there needs to be an expectation put forward for first time EV buyers. I was certainly shocked by the results after charging it overnight, so while Level 1 charging is convenient, it would take days for it to fully charge due to the slower charging speed. However, if your daily commute amounts to less than 20 miles in total, charging at Level 1 speed shouldn’t be a problem.

I don’t mind the long wait because my daily commute to work involves me driving to the train station each day, which is a little over 3 miles one way — so a charge overnight at Level 1 would be more than what I need. And since I charged it overnight, the rate for electricity consumption is much less for me versus charging it during peak hours (usually from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m.)

Although, I know that others can’t afford to wait that long, especially if they have a longer commute.

If you absolutely want a faster charge time at home, you’ll need to invest in a Level 2 charger because it takes 6 hours and 55 minutes to get the Ioniq from 0% to 80%. However, there’s the additional cost involved with installing the proper hardware at home — plus, you may need to obtain a permit from your city or town to install one. --Tom's Guide
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[parmalee]

A lot of the EV anxiety seems to hinge on novelty and particular techs that are not quite matured. All the targets are moving, but people can be influenced by narratives spun primarily by partisan sources living in the grimy pockets of Big Oil and come to view current hiccups in tech development as more chronic and widespread than they are. The cars afire scare relies on ignoring the obvious, a much higher incidence of fires in ICE vehicles (consider what the C stands for). The carbon in production concern seems to strain at swallowing a gnat, given that an average US motorist clocks in at 14,000 mpy. The math suggests you pass crossover point in a year or two, and then (depending on how your local watts are generated) massively reduce your co2 footprint.

Tangential to this thread perhaps, but not to the underlying issue: the bolded portion is "problematic". Most non-Americans probably find this number mind-boggling. I'm an American (though I've spent a fair portion of my life outside of the US) and I can't even wrap my head around this number. I mean, WTF?! That's nearly 40 miles a day!

I've only ever lived in cities and in the sticks, proper, but I've travelled a lot and am well aware that most of the American landscape, i.e., suburban hell, does not accommodate a car-free existence or even one wherein traveling fewer than 40 miles daily is feasible (I guess?). But even were it to become a practical reality, which is both logistically and politically most improbable, most Americans would be unlikely to embrace mass transit, or some sort of shared transit. That's just my take, but I think I could easily locate data to support this.

So what else is there? Working from home is an option for many, but even with larger numbers now doing so in these post-pandemic times, it doesn't seem to have put much of a dent in the miles the average motorist clocks.


Edit: If EVs get between 2 and 4 miles per kWh charge, that 40 miles is between 10 and 20 kWhs. The average US household uses 30 kWh daily (another number I can't quite wrap my head around--our home averages between 4 and 6 daily, so what the fuck are people doing to use 30 a day?), so that's increasing that electrical consumption by 33 to 66 percent. Last I checked, 60 percent of our electricity is still coming from fossil fuel sources.

 

[Sarkus]

Obviously it's the Level 1 charger that this particular meme is referring to, or is trying to portray as being the most prevalent (in the US). Again, the point is that those are a sampling of some of the common influences circulating around out there that can tweak the minds of people in a negative direction, regardless of their accuracy and how out of date they may contingently be.

Although homes in the US will have some 240V outlets for dryers, electric stoves, etc -- a new one might have to be installed in a convenient spot for a Level 2 charger (requiring expensive electrical work and possibly having to receive approval in some municipalities). Thus, it's not unwarranted that there is a slow process in upgrading the country to faster home charging.

In the UK it's almost a given that you install a level 2 charger if you have an EV, and initially the manufacturers offered them for free as part of buying a new car. Those deals are now not as common, but a typical charger plus installation will probably set you back c.£1-1.5k. This is less than 5% of the cost of even the cheapest EVs in the UK, and should last from one car to the next, so it's really quite a small investment. You'd only need to upgrade if you wanted faster, but since they're designed to be overnight chargers, there's rarely a need for more than the basic 7.4Kwh.
You typically don't need any permits to install the things, and I'm fairly sure soon all new-builds will be required to have them already in place, at least those with off-street parking at the house. Obviously we're 230/240v already, so that helps with the cost.

The biggest struggle here will still be for those who have to park on the street, which is not an insignificant part of our population, or have no suitable electrics where they park. But I'm sure our new government will come up with something inventive for those.

 

[parmalee]

In the UK it's almost a given that you install a level 2 charger if you have an EV, and initially the manufacturers offered them for free as part of buying a new car. Those deals are now not as common, but a typical charger plus installation will probably set you back c.£1-1.5k.

These deals are much more commonplace in the US, in fact, my mom got a free charger with installation with the purchase of a used EV. That said, I come from a long line of people who seem to get exceptionally good deals for everything, so...