Drones over Poland

[candy]

The incursion of 19 drones into Poland, one going 500k into Poland is adding a new level of danger.
It is a direct confrontation with NATO.
Why would Putin want to escalate the conflict at this point?

 

[TheVat]

My first suspect would be faulty control/nav circuitry or software in the drone. Putin may be an a-hole, but I think he realizes his country's warfare capacity is already stretched to breaking and shredding the economy. There is plenty of bluffing and posturing from Russia, but waving their dicks at Poland (and 500 km incursion west would almost be saying "you too, Germany") makes little sense.

 

[Wizard of Whatever]

Accident
Test
Provocation

 

[Killjoy]

My first suspect would be faulty control/nav circuitry or software in the drone. Putin may be an a-hole, but I think he realizes his country's warfare capacity is already stretched to breaking and shredding the economy. There is plenty of bluffing and posturing from Russia, but waving their dicks at Poland (and 500 km incursion west would almost be saying "you too, Germany") makes little sense.

Agreed.
Crazy Ivan is slapping together these Shahed knockoffs by the hundreds, using whatever electronics they can beg, borrow, steal or cobble up out of who knows what with their wee-little wodka-soaked brains (kidding!)
Doesn't seem too far-fetched that a bunch just went wonky and wandered off course.

 

[Killjoy]

Evidently there are those who insist the incident is part of some sort of Russian stratagem.

Russia’s Strategy Against the West: Escalate Slowly and See if It Responds

An American factory in western Ukraine. Two European diplomatic compounds and a key Ukrainian government building in Kyiv. And now Poland.

Over a roughly three-week period, Russian drones and missiles have struck sites of increasing sensitivity for Ukraine and its Western allies, culminating in the volley of Russian drones that buzzed early Wednesday over Poland, a NATO country.

For decades, American and European military planners feared something else: a bolt-from-the-blue assault, like an all-out nuclear strike, from the Soviet Union or Russia. But in its war on Ukraine, Russia has walked over a Western red line gradually, gauging responses as it goes, blunting any pushback by escalating slowly and maintaining some level of deniability, according to Ukrainian officials and analysts.

Seems like - if so - it's going to backfire as badly as anything they've tried so far, though. For example:

Exclusive: Poland was shooting a cannon at a fly, General Gromadziński tells Euronews

The problem with defending against drones became apparent two years ago, when they began being used en masse in Ukraine.

"All countries discovered that they had a gap in this lower layer of defence. That's why today aircraft were used, although we had no choice," admits Gen Gromadzinski.

"Ideally, we should have reconnaissance elements at all levels deployed along the border. The high missile ceiling is what we plan, the medium one we have, but we have lost the lowest one," the expert said.

In his opinion, systems integration will be key.

"This higher missile ceiling is more complicated and we planned it right away in the construction of our multilayer system, but we lost this lowest level," Gromadziński explained.

"Today, an anti-drone warfare reconnaissance system has to be built on this lowest level on short notice. It must, however, be integrated with the main system, so that we can identify the target and the so-called targeting and indicate which target we are destroying with which means."

 

[candy]

19 dummy drones over 7 hours suggests it is more than a malfunction. It implies intent to test military defences. Since it happened before the joint military games I think it needs close attention.

 

[Olga]

19 dummy drones over 7 hours suggests it is more than a malfunction. It implies intent to test military defences. Since it happened before the joint military games I think it needs close attention.

Иногда ответы бывают очень простыми. Кто то мог просто напиться и поприкалываться.

 

[exchemist]

19 dummy drones over 7 hours suggests it is more than a malfunction. It implies intent to test military defences. Since it happened before the joint military games I think it needs close attention.

Agreed. Russia does this a lot, now. Testing NATO and European reactions and resolve and hoping to destabilise. From cyber attacks, to political meddling (pigs’ heads left outside French mosques last week), to cutting undersea cables.

 

[Killjoy]

Sometimes the answers are very simple. Someone could just get drunk and have fun.

Yep...

Then the Ukrainians have some fun of their own and burn down an oil refinery, blow up a gas pipeline, send a bunch of "super-secret wonder trucks" full of "goodies" to visit some air bases...

Good times !

(Did we ever get a sarcasm indicator for this place ? Onna count O' this was some...)

 

[Olga]

Yep...

Then the Ukrainians have some fun of their own and burn down an oil refinery, blow up a gas pipeline, send a bunch of "super-secret wonder trucks" full of "goodies" to visit some air bases...

Good times !

(Did we ever get a sarcasm indicator for this place ? Onna count O' this was some...)

Простые безобидные дроны, ничем не начинённые...

 

[(Q)]

The incursion of 19 drones into Poland, one going 500k into Poland is adding a new level of danger.
It is a direct confrontation with NATO.
Why would Putin want to escalate the conflict at this point?

Russia is now a war economy and if that ever ends, so will Putin's life. It was always part of Putin's plan to move on Poland in order to scale up his war economy and most likely he's starting to do that.

 

[Killjoy]

Simple, harmless drones, not loaded with anything...

The things being decoy models lends credence to the provocation theory.
On the other hand, could it be that the decoys were built with chintzier electronics and thus were more easily affected by jamming or went awry due to said chintzy quality ?

Then, too - one wrecked a house just by crashing into it. I say Medvedev should have to go hand 'em a check to pay for a new one - dressed up in some sort of clown outfit... ... or maybe a hair shirt.

Russia is now a war economy and if that ever ends, so will Putin's life. It was always part of Putin's plan to move on Poland in order to scale up his war economy and most likely he's starting to do that.

I would have thought the Baltics. Some quick victories so Pootinksy can thump his chest and go "Me Heap Big ! Me rebuild Soviet Empire !!"

 

[Wizard of Whatever]

The things being decoy models lends credence to the provocation theory.
On the other hand, could it be that the decoys were built with chintzier electronics and thus were more easily affected by jamming or went awry due to said chintzy quality ?

Then, too - one wrecked a house just by crashing into it. I say Medvedev should have to go hand 'em a check to pay for a new one - dressed up in some sort of clown outfit... ... or maybe a hair shirt.



I would have thought the Baltics. Some quick victories so Pootinksy can thump his chest and go "Me Heap Big ! Me rebuild Soviet Empire !!"

If Putin attacks a NATO country he will not get quick victories. If he uses nukes, Russia will be destroyed for a long time.

 

[foghorn]

Putin’s parades where he shows off the nukes.
Why not just a mock-up of a big revolver with a single bullet on the back of a truck.

If he were to use his nukes, then it’s the bullet in the head for Putin.

 

[TheVat]

I would have thought the Baltics. Some quick victories so Pootinksy can thump his chest and go "Me Heap Big ! Me rebuild Soviet Empire !!

This was why a Polish faux attack seemed an odd choice. And I don't see how it would destabilize - Poland just keeps ramping up its defenses, and European defense generally gets more cohesive. But I don't know what all the chess moves could be over there, and Russians do like their chess.

 

[sculptor]

This was why a Polish faux attack ... Poland just keeps ramping up its defenses,...

Perhaps: That is the whole point?

 

[TheVat]

Perhaps: That is the whole point?

Maybe I'm missing something. But motivating a neighbor country to optimize its border defense seems like an odd strategy if you're planning to invade them. (Unless Poots thinks he's going to bankrupt the Poles this way)

 

[C C]

The incursion of 19 drones into Poland, one going 500k into Poland is adding a new level of danger.
It is a direct confrontation with NATO.
Why would Putin want to escalate the conflict at this point?

Just another addition to the overall list (below), though the larger number of drones gives it unique and deliberate status. A test of Polish defenses, and a tentative poke and measure of what NATO allows one to get away with (akin to Ukraine's incursions into Russia deflating Putin's assertions of a nuclear response if Ukraine crossed such and such sacred lines).

Violations of non-combatant airspaces during the Russian invasion of Ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viola...spaces_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
_

 

[Wizard of Whatever]

Maybe I'm missing something. But motivating a neighbor country to optimize its border defense seems like an odd strategy if you're planning to invade them. (Unless Poots thinks he's going to bankrupt the Poles this way)

The Poles had enough last time around with Nazis and Communists. I think this time they may be a little harder to take down.

 

[billvon]

The incursion of 19 drones into Poland, one going 500k into Poland is adding a new level of danger.
It is a direct confrontation with NATO.
Why would Putin want to escalate the conflict at this point?

He just wants to see what happens. If there's a big backlash he will stop. If there's not - if the US doesn't care, if NATO doesn't react strongly - he will keep pushing. More flights into Berdyszcze, for example, would allow Putin to start to establish a presence there - so when his troops show up there's less resistance.

Then he fights a mini-Ukraine. Does a lot of damage, then says "look, I just want peace, and so if you give me the town of Berdyszcze I will immediately stop all aggresson. It's a tiny town."