Confirmation Bias: Between What We Believe and What We Prove — A Short Story in Scientific Thinking

Mohsen Ezz El-Din Al-Bakr

Registered Member
One morning, I found myself pondering a thought that, on the surface, seemed quite logical:
Is there a connection between hair growth and academic intelligence—specifically, logical-mathematical intelligence?

The idea didn’t come from a scientific paper or a documented study. It came from something much more personal: an observation.
Most of my family members don’t suffer from baldness, yet they’ve consistently shown strong academic performance and notable aptitude in school.

I began linking appearance with substance. I wondered if thick hair might biologically reflect some form of genetic health correlated with scientific intelligence.
Of course, there are many types of intelligence, including social intelligence, but what I had in mind was the kind of intelligence tied to success in the natural sciences and mathematics—the so-called logical-mathematical intelligence.

Naturally, I wasn’t thinking of politicians or broadcasters or economists—many of whom, bald or not, fill our screens.
I was fixated on a narrower category: excellence in scientific domains. Not artistic, social, or leadership-related intelligences—just this one.

To support my hunch, I began mentally flipping through images of great scientists.
I recalled Newton, Einstein, Nikola Tesla, Stephen Hawking, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Carl Sagan, Lawrence Krauss, Michael Faraday... and others who, in my memory, all seemed to have a full head of hair—some even impressively so.
I told myself: maybe there is a pattern here…

But then something stopped me.
A voice inside whispered:
"Are you just seeing what you want to see?"

That moment was the turning point.
What I was doing—unconsciously—was a classic case of confirmation bias:
We selectively gather evidence that supports our preexisting belief, while ignoring or downplaying anything that contradicts it.

Instead of continuing to pamper my theory, I decided to test it. Not with scattered impressions, but with a method.


---

The Experiment: A Sample of 100 Scientists

I compiled a list of 100 of the most renowned physicists in history.
I analyzed their portraits, read about them, and classified each one into three categories:

H = Full Hair

H T = Thinning Hair

B = Baldness

I expected the "H" group to dominate—perhaps due to a subconscious desire to affirm my own inclusion in that group.

But the results told a different story. The proportions across the three categories were quite balanced.
No clear majority emerged to support any single conclusion. Baldness was as naturally represented as hair—just like in the general population.
It was not an indicator of superior or inferior academic intelligence.


---

So, what did I learn?

The issue wasn’t really about hair.
Nor was it about scientists.
It was about me—and about you, whenever we lean toward beliefs that comfort us more than they inform us.

It was about how I almost built a theory from a private desire, not from real data.
Fortunately, I caught myself in time—and chose to wear the hat of an investigator, not that of a believer.

In the end, I didn’t discover much about hair…
But I did learn something precious about the mind, the self, and the nature of real science.

Science does not take sides.
It tests, it verifies, it refutes.
It doesn’t strengthen our beliefs—it challenges them.
And if the evidence betrays our assumptions, that’s not failure.
It’s the mind’s greatest victory—because it means we’re closer to the truth.


---

Warm regards,
Always giving
Mohsen Ezz El-Din Al-Bakri
 
One morning, I found myself pondering a thought that, on the surface, seemed quite logical:
Is there a connection between hair growth and academic intelligence—specifically, logical-mathematical intelligence?

The idea didn’t come from a scientific paper or a documented study. It came from something much more personal: an observation.
Most of my family members don’t suffer from baldness, yet they’ve consistently shown strong academic performance and notable aptitude in school.

I began linking appearance with substance. I wondered if thick hair might biologically reflect some form of genetic health correlated with scientific intelligence.
Of course, there are many types of intelligence, including social intelligence, but what I had in mind was the kind of intelligence tied to success in the natural sciences and mathematics—the so-called logical-mathematical intelligence.

Naturally, I wasn’t thinking of politicians or broadcasters or economists—many of whom, bald or not, fill our screens.
I was fixated on a narrower category: excellence in scientific domains. Not artistic, social, or leadership-related intelligences—just this one.

To support my hunch, I began mentally flipping through images of great scientists.
I recalled Newton, Einstein, Nikola Tesla, Stephen Hawking, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Carl Sagan, Lawrence Krauss, Michael Faraday... and others who, in my memory, all seemed to have a full head of hair—some even impressively so.
I told myself: maybe there is a pattern here…

But then something stopped me.
A voice inside whispered:
"Are you just seeing what you want to see?"

That moment was the turning point.
What I was doing—unconsciously—was a classic case of confirmation bias:
We selectively gather evidence that supports our preexisting belief, while ignoring or downplaying anything that contradicts it.

Instead of continuing to pamper my theory, I decided to test it. Not with scattered impressions, but with a method.


---

The Experiment: A Sample of 100 Scientists

I compiled a list of 100 of the most renowned physicists in history.
I analyzed their portraits, read about them, and classified each one into three categories:

H = Full Hair

H T = Thinning Hair

B = Baldness

I expected the "H" group to dominate—perhaps due to a subconscious desire to affirm my own inclusion in that group.

But the results told a different story. The proportions across the three categories were quite balanced.
No clear majority emerged to support any single conclusion. Baldness was as naturally represented as hair—just like in the general population.
It was not an indicator of superior or inferior academic intelligence.


---

So, what did I learn?

The issue wasn’t really about hair.
Nor was it about scientists.
It was about me—and about you, whenever we lean toward beliefs that comfort us more than they inform us.

It was about how I almost built a theory from a private desire, not from real data.
Fortunately, I caught myself in time—and chose to wear the hat of an investigator, not that of a believer.

In the end, I didn’t discover much about hair…
But I did learn something precious about the mind, the self, and the nature of real science.

Science does not take sides.
It tests, it verifies, it refutes.
It doesn’t strengthen our beliefs—it challenges them.
And if the evidence betrays our assumptions, that’s not failure.
It’s the mind’s greatest victory—because it means we’re closer to the truth.


---

Warm regards,
Always giving
Mohsen Ezz El-Din Al-Bakri
Why are you posting so extensively on different subjects?
 
Because you didn't read the post, and before science there are the foundations of the scientific method... how you learn comes before you learn.
I suspect most of us are at least as familiar with the scientific method as you are. What’s the point in posting these trivial personal anecdotes, to people already well aware of the need to be alert for confirmation bias? We are not schoolchildren here.
 
I suspect most of us are at least as familiar with the scientific method as you are. What’s the point in posting these trivial personal anecdotes, to people already well aware of the need to be alert for confirmation bias? We are not schoolchildren here.
Who said that? You are now biased and driven by your arrogance, accepting information only from specific colors and races.
 
I suspect most of us are at least as familiar with the scientific method as you are. What’s the point in posting these trivial personal anecdotes, to people already well aware of the need to be alert for confirmation bias? We are not schoolchildren here.
I want to tell you that I've been through a lot with people like you. You won't be able to break me, you won't be able to crush me, and you won't have the patience to deal with me, so choose someone else. If your response were scientific, you would have found a kinder reply, but I'm not stupid; I know what's hidden beneath the surface.
 
I want to tell you that I've been through a lot with people like you. You won't be able to break me, you won't be able to crush me, and you won't have the patience to deal with me, so choose someone else. If your response were scientific, you would have found a kinder reply, but I'm not stupid; I know what's hidden beneath the surface.
This is bullshit. exchemist has worked in 47 countries in a long career and defended those countries, peoples and religions against racism and bigotry on this site.
You need to think about your next post.
 
Who said that? You are now biased and driven by your arrogance, accepting information only from specific colors and races.
Not at all. It is you that seems to patronise the readers of this forum, by trying to teach us what we already know.

Some of your posts on religion and politics have been interesting. But if you want to talk science, bear in mind this is a science forum, so trying to teach us basic stuff, as if we have never thought of it, is not going to be appreciated.

Race and colour do not come into this in the least. It is purely a matter of the quality of what you post.
 
This is bullshit. exchemist has worked in 47 countries in a long career and defended those countries, peoples and religions against racism and bigotry on this site.
You need to think about your next post.
Including four years living in the Emirates. I think he may be Yemeni. I always wanted to visit Yemen but never got the chance. (The people in that part of the world who treated the Yemenis worst were actually the Saudis, fellow Arabs! )
 
He is better than I am! As a human, seriously. I grew up inner city.
The issue isn't about poverty, wealth, or authority; information is accepted based on its evidence and quality. Information that is poor, lacking evidence and usefulness, is unacceptable, even if it comes from the most famous person in history.
 
I want to tell you that I've been through a lot with people like you. You won't be able to break me, you won't be able to crush me, and you won't have the patience to deal with me, so choose someone else. If your response were scientific, you would have found a kinder reply, but I'm not stupid; I know what's hidden beneath the surface.
No I’m just an old ex chemist and I get tetchy when people bore me with stuff that is obvious and not interesting. And I’m not the only one, to judge by other people’s comments.
 
The issue isn't about poverty, wealth, or authority; information is accepted based on its evidence and quality. Information that is poor, lacking evidence and usefulness, is unacceptable, even if it comes from the most famous person in history.
You will get that from EC. Evidence and quality. I'll back away now, he can hold his own on all things science, information
 
The issue isn't about poverty, wealth, or authority; information is accepted based on its evidence and quality. Information that is poor, lacking evidence and usefulness, is unacceptable, even if it comes from the most famous person in history.
Your post at the start of this thread is of poor quality and lacks usefulness. It is also very long, so the poor reader only finds out it is not useful after wasting time reading it.
 
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