Climate change and wine grapes: Go, stay, or change?

[C C]

Poor luck that most wine country residents have probably been banned in the past, though that impulsive pessimism is not intended to be a correlation.
- - - - - - - - - - - -

Climate change and wine grapes: Go, stay, or change?
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1131165

EXCERPTS: When temperatures climb above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, grape clusters can heat to nearly 140 degrees in direct sunlight. The berries shrivel. Their color compounds break down. Yields drop. And for growers who have invested millions in land and vines expected to produce for decades, a single brutal heat wave can ripple through the balance sheet for years.

[...] “Wine grapes are unique in that people are very attached to certain cultivars and the sense of the place where they come from,” Vanden Heuvel said. “That’s not true with most other crops. Do you care where your radish comes from?”

[...] “Wine around the world has this tradition of having on the label the name of the grape and where it came from,” said Rickard. “Even inexpensive box and jug wine has the name of grape and place of origin on the front, and even among less-sophisticated consumers, there’s recognition of that. This paper is trying to understand if changing anything about that formula - whether the grape, the location or the production method - can affect what consumers are willing to pay.”

[...] The team calculated the long-term financial return of three climate-adaptation strategies.

The first option was technology: installing shade cloth above vines to block direct sunlight. Studies show this can lower grape temperatures by several degrees, reducing sunburn and protecting quality during heat waves. But it also adds substantial costs, Vanden Heuvel said, including installation and replacement every several years.

The second option was changing the grape itself. Instead of cabernet sauvignon, growers could plant varieties that tolerate hotter climates, such as carignane. These grapes often yield more fruit in hot conditions, though they may fetch lower prices.

The third option was migration. Rather than changing grapes, a grower might move production to a cooler nearby region such as Lake County, where temperatures historically run lower than in Napa... (MORE - details, no ads)
_

 

[DaveC426913]

I'm playing the long game. Buying up land here in the Great White North for my orange grove empire.

 

[exchemist]

Poor luck that most wine country residents have probably been banned in the past, though that impulsive pessimism is not intended to be a correlation.
- - - - - - - - - - - -

Climate change and wine grapes: Go, stay, or change?
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1131165

EXCERPTS: When temperatures climb above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, grape clusters can heat to nearly 140 degrees in direct sunlight. The berries shrivel. Their color compounds break down. Yields drop. And for growers who have invested millions in land and vines expected to produce for decades, a single brutal heat wave can ripple through the balance sheet for years.

[...] “Wine grapes are unique in that people are very attached to certain cultivars and the sense of the place where they come from,” Vanden Heuvel said. “That’s not true with most other crops. Do you care where your radish comes from?”

[...] “Wine around the world has this tradition of having on the label the name of the grape and where it came from,” said Rickard. “Even inexpensive box and jug wine has the name of grape and place of origin on the front, and even among less-sophisticated consumers, there’s recognition of that. This paper is trying to understand if changing anything about that formula - whether the grape, the location or the production method - can affect what consumers are willing to pay.”

[...] The team calculated the long-term financial return of three climate-adaptation strategies.

The first option was technology: installing shade cloth above vines to block direct sunlight. Studies show this can lower grape temperatures by several degrees, reducing sunburn and protecting quality during heat waves. But it also adds substantial costs, Vanden Heuvel said, including installation and replacement every several years.

The second option was changing the grape itself. Instead of cabernet sauvignon, growers could plant varieties that tolerate hotter climates, such as carignane. These grapes often yield more fruit in hot conditions, though they may fetch lower prices.

The third option was migration. Rather than changing grapes, a grower might move production to a cooler nearby region such as Lake County, where temperatures historically run lower than in Napa... (MORE - details, no ads)
_

This strikes me as all rather obvious and, not surprisingly, inconclusive. Everyone knows that the combination of grape variety and terroir is what makes wine from an area distinctive. Most growers obviously are tied to the terroir so adapting growing and harvesting practice (esp. timing) is their obvious choice as the climate changes. Experimenting with different grapes is for them a radical step into the unknown as that becomes a new product, which will take years to establish a reputation and won’t therefore command a high price until this is achieved. But these days wine drinkers are exposed to quite a variety and may be more willing to try new things than they used to be, so that can help.

As for switching growing to new locations, that’s only an option for big businesses. But we have seen for instance French champagne houses buying plots in other countries, e.g. in England in areas where the same geology comes to the surface so a similar terroir can be found. I think some of the big chateaux in Bordeaux have invested in South America, though I don’t recall any details.

And last night I was drinking a German pinot noir (what they call blauer spätburgunder), which was quite good. 30 years ago people would have scoffed at the idea Germany could make a credible Burgundy style red wine.

One specific issue is the rise in alcohol level due to increasing ripeness as conditions become hotter. This is becoming a problem, as when it becomes >14% or so the wines tend to become rather oppressive, thirst-provoking and headachy. And if fermentation is stopped earlier the residual sugar leaves the wine unpleasantly sweet.

 

[TheVat]

Merlot is also sensitive to heat.

Of all international grape varieties, Merlot is the one most seriously affected by global warming, with many winegrowers choosing to replace it with other Bordeaux varieties, reports Roger Morris.

MERLOT IS one tough cookie. A few years ago, the variety was trolled in the US by a drunken, hate-mongering character in the film Sideways, who convinced a segment of American wine lovers to quit drinking Merlot and switch to Californian Pinot Noir. Merlot sales suffered for a while, but the grape eventually bounced backed in the US market, where it remains the second most-planted international red variety, behind Cabernet Sauvignon.

But now Merlot is being hit hard by a much more-formidable opponent – global warming. Climate change is rendering the grape less desirable for fine winemaking. Some of the same winegrowers who have in the past received the highest ratings for their Merlot-based wines are quietly replanting it in some famous terroirs with other Bordeaux varieties, chiefly Cabernet Franc.

Is it curtains for Merlot?

Of all international grape varieties, Merlot is the one most seriously affected by global warming, with many winegrowers choosing to replace it with other Bordeaux varieties.

www.thedrinksbusiness.com

 

[exchemist]

Merlot is also sensitive to heat.

Is it curtains for Merlot?

Of all international grape varieties, Merlot is the one most seriously affected by global warming, with many winegrowers choosing to replace it with other Bordeaux varieties.

www.thedrinksbusiness.com

In Bx merlot is blended with cab sauv and cab fr on the left bank and with just cab fr (I think) on the right (St. Emilion, Pomerol). I don’t think the French ever make 100% merlot. It’s too soft. Needs some backbone from another variety to go with it. On the left bank they often also shove in 5-10% petit verdot as well. I’ve no idea what that does, but I suspect the total blend has more complexity and possible better resilience to variations in ripening from any one of the components.

I wonder therefore if blends may be one way to go. The single varietal concept strikes me as a bit of a hangover from 30 years ago, when the Aussies were pushing the misguided but for them convenient notion that only grape variety was important and the idea of terroir was all French hogwash. So they started selling wines labelled with the variety rather than the location. Big mistake. We all know better now.

If a grower plants several varieties and offers a blended wine he has some ability to ride out year on year variations in climate.

Rhone also tends to be blends. But not Burgundy. There, it’s 100% pinot noir so if that is no longer possible, their reputation is dead. Though maybe the heat-tolerant Rhone grapes will over time migrate north to Burgundy while pinot noir migrates up into Germany, or even over to England.

P.S. I see the linked article suggests cab fr is replacing some merlot. The Loire makes cab fr based reds e.g. Chinon, that can be delicious in good years. Lighter and more raspberry-like than cab sauv. Who knows, maybe cab fr will become a name in the US wine industry in future.

 

[billvon]

Speaking of "climate change" and the decision to stay or go -

We just had to evacuate for a brush fire near us in San Diego, and now we're all in a hotel a few miles from the fire. Big fires are happening earlier and earlier every year. The California season used to peak in August; now it's peaking in July, and by August there's not much fuel left in the high risk areas. It may soon start peaking in June.

 

[DaveC426913]

Well, silver lining: Canada's Hardiness Zones have been updated for the first time in decades. Here on the Niagara Peninsula our Hardiness Zone has been upgraded a full zone, from a 6a to a 7a.

2000:


2025:

 

[exchemist]

Well, silver lining: Canada's Hardiness Zones have been updated for the first time in decades. Here on the Niagara Peninsula our Hardiness Zone has been upgraded a full zone, from a 6a to a 7a.

2000:
View attachment 7585

2025:
View attachment 7588

You will need to explain this a bit for an ignorant Brit. What is a hardiness zone, what does the map depict and does this have implications for viticulture in Canada?

 

[James R]

Moderator note: An off-topic post has been removed from this thread. A number of responses relating to that off-topic posts have also been removed.

If sculptor wants to ask questions about climate change and the Greenland ice sheet, he can start a separate thread to ask those questions. The current thread is about wine grape growing and the effects of climate change on that.

 

[Sarkus]

As long as someone somewhere is producing drinkable Sauvignon Blanc at a reasonable price, I will be a happy bunny. If that is in the UK, all the better.

 

[exchemist]

As long as someone somewhere is producing drinkable Sauvignon Blanc at a reasonable price, I will be a happy bunny. If that is in the UK, all the better.

It seems people are just starting to try it in England: https://lymebaywinery.co.uk/blog/introducing-our-new-english-sauvignon-blanc/

Certainly it works well in the Loire - and in Bx, still, where it is richer. But it can go too far if overripe. I remember with a shudder a NZ sauvignon blanc I once ordered, rather unwisely without tasting it, for a company party in the late 1990s. It was overpowering, smelling almost of tomcat and tasting like the smell of armpits with a bad deodorant. Pretty horrible I thought, though some said they liked it. I think generally NZ sauv blanc is fine though. This was just a mistake. (One can get something of the same shock with Grand Cru Chablis. Premier Cru or simple Chablis a a safer bet for the classic clean chablis taste I like so much for fish.)

 

[Sarkus]

It seems people are just starting to try it in England: https://lymebaywinery.co.uk/blog/introducing-our-new-english-sauvignon-blanc/

Certainly it works well in the Loire - and in Bx, still, where it is richer. But it can go too far if overripe. I remember with a shudder a NZ sauvignon blanc I once ordered, rather unwisely without tasting it, for a company party in the late 1990s. It was overpowering, smelling almost of tomcat and tasting like the smell of armpits with a bad deodorant. Pretty horrible I thought, though some said they liked it. I think generally NZ sauv blanc is fine though. This was just a mistake. (One can get something of the same shock with Grand Cru Chablis. Premier Cru or simple Chablis a a safer bet for the classic clean chablis taste I like so much for fish.)

SB is very much my go-to white. I much prefer the fruity and grassy SBs of NZ over the more mineral, flinty, French stuff. Chilean or the more Eastern European offerings tend to fall between the two, so I would also plump for them over French, at the same price bracket, at least. I'd think early English stuff will be very French-like rather than NZ, unfortunately. But, hey, if it supports local growers, I'm prepared to do my bit.

 

[DaveC426913]

You will need to explain this a bit for an ignorant Brit. What is a hardiness zone, what does the map depict and does this have implications for viticulture in Canada?

Hardiness Zones show what plants will survive in one's area mostly based on minimum winter temperatures. A quick look at UK reveals that virtually the entire island chain has a HZ of 7 or 8 - even higher near the coasts. You can find specific species lists for your hardiness zone to tell you what will do well in your area.

Here is the map of HZs along with assoc tenps:

 

[exchemist]

SB is very much my go-to white. I much prefer the fruity and grassy SBs of NZ over the more mineral, flinty, French stuff. Chilean or the more Eastern European offerings tend to fall between the two, so I would also plump for them over French, at the same price bracket, at least. I'd think early English stuff will be very French-like rather than NZ, unfortunately. But, hey, if it supports local growers, I'm prepared to do my bit.

Yes mineral and flinty is what I tend to like with sauv blanc, possibly through having my palate educated by a French wife . Though her family were very much classic Bx drinkers, like so much of the bourgeoisie of that era I suppose. I even got a taste for white Bx which is not very fashionable. My mother in law disliked S American reds I remember. She wasn’t a wine snob but could tell them blind in the glass and would stop drinking and maybe ask for something else.

 

[exchemist]

Hardiness Zones show what plants will survive in one's area mostly based on minimum winter temperatures. A quick look at UK reveals that virtually the entire island chain has a HZ of 7 or 8 - even higher near the coasts. You can find specific species lists for your hardiness zone to tell you what will do well in your area.

Here is the map of HZs along with assoc tenps:
View attachment 7589

Aha thanks. One can see the effect of the Gulf Stream. Hamilton on the Niagara isthmus is at a latitude of 43 deg N , so approx the same as Bordeaux, yet has winters as cold as the Grampian region of the Scottish Highlands.

I see from looking it up that Niagara does actually produce wine. I think vines are quite hardy in winter. The problem for us in the British Isles is not enough warmth and sun in spring and summer.

 

[TheVat]

when the Aussies were pushing the misguided but for them convenient notion that only grape variety was important and the idea of terroir was all French hogwash. So they started selling wines labelled with the variety rather than the location. Big mistake.

I've heard (in my zone of very limited wine knowledge) that terroir also has economic importance, a long owned vineyard having lower overhead and in some countries reduced taxes. (Maybe some help to legacy growers when the tariff nonsense started up) And they have intergenerational expertise on micro variations between individual plots. Moving would be a horror.

 

[TheVat]

Speaking of "climate change" and the decision to stay or go -

We just had to evacuate for a brush fire near us in San Diego, and now we're all in a hotel a few miles from the fire. Big fires are happening earlier and earlier every year. The California season used to peak in August; now it's peaking in July, and by August there's not much fuel left in the high risk areas. It may soon start peaking in June.

I've heard that those Cali fires have hurt, or ruined, some grape crops. "Smoky finish" is one thing, "tastes strongly of lighter fluid" another.

(Hope you and yours are doing ok, and your home doesn't acquire a smoky finish. We had a wildfire near us a few years ago and our house - old, not well sealed - retained a smoke odor for a couple weeks, with delicate notes of burning trash)

 

[exchemist]

I've heard (in my zone of very limited wine knowledge) that terroir also has economic importance, a long owned vineyard having lower overhead and in some countries reduced taxes. (Maybe some help to legacy growers when the tariff nonsense started up) And they have intergenerational expertise on micro variations between individual plots. Moving would be a horror.

I don’t know about tax but certainly the conventional wisdom is that the best wine comes usually from older vines with deeper root systems. So a move might be a 10-20 year process before you can hope to get back to the quality you had before. Far from easy and very long term, so for that reason an expensive and uncertain investment. That’s why the big French houses are starting now, in the expectation that climate change 20 years hence may make what are now marginal cold experimental vineyards may come up to scratch.

 

[exchemist]

I've heard that those Cali fires have hurt, or ruined, some grape crops. "Smoky finish" is one thing, "tastes strongly of lighter fluid" another.

Yes I’ve read about that too.

 

[Sarkus]

I've heard (in my zone of very limited wine knowledge) that terroir also has economic importance, a long owned vineyard having lower overhead and in some countries reduced taxes. (Maybe some help to legacy growers when the tariff nonsense started up) And they have intergenerational expertise on micro variations between individual plots. Moving would be a horror.

Terroir isn't about how old the vines are, if that's what you were thinking? It's certainly of economic importance, but it's about what the location instils in the wine. There's a case, or so I've heard, of two vineyards, same variety grape, one on either side of a road, both tended by the same grower, both treated the same, but one had "better terroir" than the other. Some put it down to the way the wind took the car emissions to fall over one but not the other, or the way the sun might catch one and not the other, or how the rain water might wash down each vineyard (having slightly different contoured land) and other seemingly trivial things. I'm sure there are economic benefits to older vines, but then offsetting that their yields might tend to be smaller, flavours more intense, and price of the wines likely much higher. Certainly moving a vine would result in a different resulting wine (even if something most might not detect).