EddyNashton
Registered Member
what now everyone? Where you for it? Against it? What do you think will come of it?
Britain left the EU
- Thread starter EddyNashton
- Start date
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
We actually already have a thread on this, here: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/will-britain-vote-for-brexit.156823/page-6#post-3389059
Suggest, to avoid asking people to repeat themselves, it might an idea to reformulate your question a bit, to focus on the issues highlighted by that thread.
EddyNashton
Registered Member
Really? Is that what they said? THEY DIDNT think they would win?
Yesterday, it sounded like even the government and public sector pushers of Leave didn't believe they would really win. In light of their not having a preparation plan (not even an outline) for things that needed to be taken care of prior to enacting the official separation process from the EU. (Anymore than the Remain faction of legislators did in case they lost). Because of that, Cameron was depicted as begging for extra time before the activation of Article 50.
But today it's reported oppositely that "...Leave had done lots of detailed planning for Brexit." With other reasons and excuses now being provided for the delay.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ferendum-petition-david-cameron-a7105596.html
EXCERPT: Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott welcomed Mr Cameron's decision to delay the "divorce" for several months, despite pressure from Brussels for a rapid departure. "I don't think we need to rush this process," he told US TV channel CNBC.
"During the campaign there was talk about triggering Article 50 and its process of leaving the EU right away, literally on Friday morning, and I think quite rightly the PM has paused on that which allows the dust to settle, allows people to go away on holiday, have some informal discussions about it, and then think about it come September/October time." He said Vote Leave had "done lots of detailed planning" for Brexit and suggested Michael Gove was "probably the man to lead the negotiations" - but dismissed the idea of any formal role for Ukip leader Nigel Farage. Economic turbulence would "settle very quickly", he predicted.
It's the progressive left that can't accept defeat in the face of a democratic vote.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
What evidence do you have for that remark? This referendum was never a left/right issue: it cut right across political parties, generations and communities.
You seem to be trying to force-fit the politics of the UK/EU issue into your simplistic US redneck model, without bothering to understand what you are commenting on.
Last edited:
There is certainly anecdotal evidence to suggest that some indeed voted as a protest vote in the belief that they wouldn't win.
A subsequent poll has suggested that up to 7% of Leave voters would vote differently if the referendum was rerun, but that up to 4% of the Remain campaigners would do likewise, with the net result being Leave still win but by much smaller majority.
There are numerous reasons for the delay, not least of which is that David Cameron genuinely doesn't feel able to negotiate on something he so fundamentally disagrees with.
There's also the simple matter that while Vote Leave were named the primary Brexit campaign, there were numerous other parties campaigning for rather different ideas of a post-EU UK, all emphasising different reasons for exiting. Be it to halt immigration at the expense of not having entry to the Single market, or simply to be able to negotiate trade deals outside of the EU, or some wanting full access to the single market AND restrictions on immigration etc.
So while one party might have done some planning to set out their vision, they need time to take stock as to what the wider prevailing view is of what we are going to try to negotiate for. There is little point in hitting the Article 50 button to start the countdown if there is no consensus as to the way ahead.
Personally I think it slightly naive of anyone to have thought the button would be pressed immediately, unless the Leave campaign had already determined and set out a single way forward prior to the referendum, and given us that as the option along with remaining.
That said, I do think they should have done that prep work prior to the referendum, and reached a consensus view to put before the country on which to vote in the referendum. Instead, all they asked us was: "do you want in or out of the European Union" with no mention at all of what "Out" would look like. It may even have been the intent of Cameron to call the referendum knowing that there was no such clear picture, in the hope that this would persuade voters to want to remain.
It was a shambles, still is a shambles, and will be for a while yet. And the true economic turmoil won't likely hit for a good 6 months or so, when inflation starts to rise, the lack of investment starts to bite, jobs start to be lost etc.
There will be more austerity cuts, I'm sure. Taxes will likely rise (2p on the basic rate to 22% and 3p on the higher rate to 43%) meaning less disposable income and thus slower economic growth.
Good news will be low interest rates for a while longer, possibly further cuts to 0.25% or even 0.0%, but eventually they'll have to rise as well.
Interesting times...
The way the EU is chomping at the bit to get things rolling and stifling discourse (prior to article 50 activation) hints that they didn't prepare much beforehand for a Leave outcome or still don't appreciate the complexity of situation in the UK. But much of that attitude is doubtless due to their just being mega pissed-off. As an exception to their wrath, there's at least the appearance of Scotland not getting the cold shoulder at the summit or allowed a crack at proto-negotiations with a Brussels jockey. [EDIT... Ah, forget that: Nicola Sturgeon snubbed by EU member states including Germany]
excerpt: Asked if she saw any possibility for Britain to U-turn on its EU decision, Ms Merkel said: “I want to say very clearly tonight that I see no way to reverse this. We all need to look at the reality of the situation. It is not the hour for wishful thinking.” Early indications suggest many EU leaders appear keen to get Brexit over and done with now the UK has decided to leave.
[...Cameron...] called for the UK to be given the best possible conditions for its exit in the coming months. But Ms Merkel said it was not up to Mr Cameron to “cherry-pick” the terms of the negotiations and agreed with other EU leaders that there would be no informal talks before Article 50 was triggered.
Earlier in the day, European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker told a plenary session of the European Parliament that he “banned” any talks between EU officials and the UK government until that condition was met. EU Council President Donald Tusk said: “Europe is ready to start the divorce process, even today.”
[...] Also on the agenda will be a meeting between SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels as she attempts to keep Scotland in the European Union. [...]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ful-thinking-to-hope-for-u-turn-a7108801.html
excerpt: Angela Merkel and other European leaders, meeting for the first EU summit since last Friday’s result, ruled out any special favours for Britain yesterday [...] In a speech to the Bundestag ahead of the summit on Tuesday, the German chancellor said: “There must be, and there will be, a palpable difference between those countries who want to be members of the European family and those who don’t.”
These words have been echoed by other EU leaders including Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi. Xavier Bettel, prime minister of Luxembourg, added that the UK could not have a Facebook-style “it’s complicated” status with the rest of the EU: Britain could have “marriage or divorce, but not something in between”.
EU leaders also insist there will be no informal talks on a future trade settlement until the UK triggers article 50, which begins the exit process.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...cameron-eu-leaders-brussels-corbyn-confidence
Last edited:
It's actually getting possibly worse for the UK...
The EU Trade Commissioner has stated that the UK can't even start negotiating ANY trade deal until AFTER it has officially left the EU. So not just when Article 50 is invoked but AFTER the 2-year time period!
Apparently there are EU rules which (1) prevent the EU from negotiating separate trade deals with any of its members, and (2) prevent any EU member from negotiating separate trade deals with outsiders.
So the UK, says the Commissioner, needs to invoke Article 50, politically separate (within 2 years), and only once full political separation has been done can trade deals be negotiated.
So this means that at the end of the 2 years the UK will be operating according to WTO rules - tariffs et al - which will damage the EU economies as well as the UKs - until they finalise a trade deal between them, which could be a further 5+ years (Canadian deal took 7 years and still needs ratification, adding a further 1-2 years).
Joy.
If true, let's at least hope the EU are grown up and sensible about things, and they at least hold "informal" negotiations during the 2 years so that they can expedite "formal" negotiations at the end of the 2 years.