Breaking News: Netanyahu claims Israel has struck Iran's nuclear facilities !!!

ольга said:
Trump has already announced that Iran and Israel have concluded a permanent ceasefire.
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From Associated Press:

"Iranian foreign minister says no agreement has been reached with Israel"

It is probably wise to not believe what Trump announces.
 
yeah, Trump went on media and declared that he had orchestrated a ceasefire. His "Truth" posting included the details: Iran would start the ceasefire at (I think) what works out at c.10am UK time, and then 6 hours later Israel will start their ceasefire. So does that give Israel 6 hours to bomb the shit out of Iran without possibility of retaliation IF Iran wants to abide by the ceasefire??? Seems odd.
Anyhoo - the Orange numpty then goes on to try and get everyone to start calling it "The 12 Day War" once the ceasefire has been in effect for 24 hours.

But, as pointed out, Iran officials are saying that they have not entered any ceasefire.
Fars News (the state media of Iran): "The ceasefire proposal put forward by U.S. President Donald Trump is completely false..." and "No official or unofficial ceasefire proposal has been received from Iran: 'In response to thie media fabrication, the Islamic Republic of Iran will, within a few hours, demonstrate the falsehood of this claim to the Zionist regime through direct and on-the-ground action.'"

That said, Iranian officials have also apparently told France 24 that if Israel continuing their strikes after 3:30 local time (not sure if am/pm - assuming pm, as it's now currently c.10:30am) then Iran would consider the ceasefire as voided. So maybe there has been an acceptance of a plan?

It does seem that Israel have agreed to a ceasefire - and, heck, why wouldn't they when they - with the help of the US - have achieved most, if not all, of their aims in attacking Iran, and Iran have yet to really retaliate.
For their part, Iran have been attacking US bases in Qatar (no casualties, as Iran has a habit of announcing the attacks ahead of schedule to give people time to evacuate).

All that said, Iranian Foreign Minister has said that while there has been no agreement with Israel as to a ceasefire (i.e. that Trump is talking out of his arse), that if Israel cease their attacks by 4am local time, Iran would not retaliate further, although total military cessation would be decided later. This passed some 7 hours ago as of writing this post. It did seem that Israel abided by this ceasefire proposal by Iran, as Israel ceased their launches by 4:00am local Iran time. So this is not Trump's ceasefire but rather the Iranian proposal.

However, the BBC are now reporting that Israeli military is saying there have been missile launches from Iran - and this is 8:30 uk time (10:30am in Iran).
www.bbc.co.uk

Live updates: Trump says ceasefire between Israel and Iran 'now in effect'

The US president announced the ceasefire several hours ago, with both Israel and Iran launching overnight attacks before it came into effect.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
Latest updates:
  • Israel accuse Iran of firing missiles after start of supposed ceasefire
  • Iran denies firing missiles
  • No emergency services in Israel report casualties
  • Israel accuses Iran of violating ceasefire
  • Israel vows to respond "forcefully", Tehran "will shake"
  • Iran again denies firing any missiles, and says any further aggression by Israel will be met with response

So, were the claims of Iran firing missiles a false flag by Israel, giving them the justification for further attacks? Or did Iran actually fire missiles?
 
Well, the ceasefire seems to be holding. Which is good.

In the meantime, US intelligence (albeit leaked) suggests that the US bombs did not "obliterate" the Iran nuclear sites as Trump is claiming, but that they perhaps put the Iranian nuclear program back by a few months. This is from the New York Times, no less.
Naturally the Liar in Chief takes to his whiney platform and, in all-caps, decries the NYT and CNN of trying to demean "ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL MILITARY STRIKES IN HISTORY" (because, you know, everything that he does as President is one of the best, if not THE best and bigliest of all time, ever, in history).

The gaslighting WH press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, obviously had to defend Trump, describing the intelligence to have been leaked by a "low level loser", and that it was "fake news". Even though the leaked report is said to be from the Defence ntelligence Agency within the Pentagon. While the report was said to be an initial assessment, they reportedly have a habit of being reasonably accurate, and it suggests that while the bombing did collapse and seal off the entrances to two sites, the underground buildings, and key apparatus, remained intact.

As Ron Filipkowski, editor-in-chief of the Meidastouch Network, puts it: "The problem with having a congenital liar as president is that sometimes the firehouse of lies can be laughably cartoonish, but more often they involve things that are really freaking important for the American people and world to know."
 
Sarkus said:
Well, the ceasefire seems to be holding. Which is good.

In the meantime, US intelligence (albeit leaked) suggests that the US bombs did not "obliterate" the Iran nuclear sites as Trump is claiming, but that they perhaps put the Iranian nuclear program back by a few months. This is from the New York Times, no less.
Naturally the Liar in Chief takes to his whiney platform and, in all-caps, decries the NYT and CNN of trying to demean "ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL MILITARY STRIKES IN HISTORY" (because, you know, everything that he does as President is one of the best, if not THE best and bigliest of all time, ever, in history).

The gaslighting WH press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, obviously had to defend Trump, describing the intelligence to have been leaked by a "low level loser", and that it was "fake news". Even though the leaked report is said to be from the Defence ntelligence Agency within the Pentagon. While the report was said to be an initial assessment, they reportedly have a habit of being reasonably accurate, and it suggests that while the bombing did collapse and seal off the entrances to two sites, the underground buildings, and key apparatus, remained intact.

As Ron Filipkowski, editor-in-chief of the Meidastouch Network, puts it: "The problem with having a congenital liar as president is that sometimes the firehouse of lies can be laughably cartoonish, but more often they involve things that are really freaking important for the American people and world to know."
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I thought this assessment was interesting: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...to-have-won-the-war-but-who-has-really-gained

It seems there may now be 400kg of 60% enriched uranium being driven around in unmarked vehicles, or at unknown locations, and all they need to do is set up some centrifuges in an anonymous warehouse somewhere, to get it up to 90% for a bomb, which could be done in 6-12months if undetected. I'm not at all sure this is an improvement, from a security point of view, on a negotiated arrangement involving holding the stuff at known locations and subject to inspection by the IAEA.

The intelligence apparently is that Khamenei had not, up to this point, given any instructions to make a bomb. But he might now see doing so as the best deterrent against further military attacks, especially given the loose talk about "regime change" from Trump and Netanyahu.
 
exchemist said:
I thought this assessment was interesting: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...to-have-won-the-war-but-who-has-really-gained

It seems there may now be 400kg of 60% enriched uranium being driven around in unmarked vehicles, or at unknown locations, and all they need to do is set up some centrifuges in an anonymous warehouse somewhere, to get it up to 90% for a bomb, which could be done in 6-12months if undetected. I'm not at all sure this is an improvement, from a security point of view, on a negotiated arrangement involving holding the stuff at known locations and subject to inspection by the IAEA.

The intelligence apparently is that Khamenei had not, up to this point, given any instructions to make a bomb. But he might now see doing so as the best deterrent against further military attacks, especially given the loose talk about "regime change" from Trump and Netanyahu.
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Indeed. From his own intelligence initially saying that Iran had no means of achieving a bomb, and no particular intention to, we now have Iran with the materials and, as you say, every reason to build, a nuclear weapon of some description. And all it took was for Trump to disagree with his own administration's intelligence on the matter, and his willingness to get into bed with Netanyahu. The latter may still be due to hoping Israel ethnically cleanse the Gaza strip and allow him to build his Trump resort there. And there's always his seeming fixation on the Nobel Peace prize, and maybe he was convinced by his inner circle that dropping bombs would be the best way to achieve that. Who can really tell what goes on in that junk-food- and adderall- fuelled narcissistic head of his.

Interestingly, an/the Israeli military chief stated that their campaign against Iran is "not finished". So much for the ceasefire and peace.
 
Sarkus said:
Well, the ceasefire seems to be holding. Which is good.

In the meantime, US intelligence (albeit leaked) suggests that the US bombs did not "obliterate" the Iran nuclear sites as Trump is claiming, but that they perhaps put the Iranian nuclear program back by a few months. This is from the New York Times, no less.
Naturally the Liar in Chief takes to his whiney platform and, in all-caps, decries the NYT and CNN of trying to demean "ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL MILITARY STRIKES IN HISTORY" (because, you know, everything that he does as President is one of the best, if not THE best and bigliest of all time, ever, in history).

The gaslighting WH press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, obviously had to defend Trump, describing the intelligence to have been leaked by a "low level loser", and that it was "fake news". Even though the leaked report is said to be from the Defence ntelligence Agency within the Pentagon. While the report was said to be an initial assessment, they reportedly have a habit of being reasonably accurate, and it suggests that while the bombing did collapse and seal off the entrances to two sites, the underground buildings, and key apparatus, remained intact.

As Ron Filipkowski, editor-in-chief of the Meidastouch Network, puts it: "The problem with having a congenital liar as president is that sometimes the firehouse of lies can be laughably cartoonish, but more often they involve things that are really freaking important for the American people and world to know."
Click to expand...
Это удар по репутации всей Америки. Хвалёное оружие на поверку оказалось не таким уж и страшным.
 
ольга said:
It's a blow to the reputation of the whole of America. The vaunted weapon in turn was not so terrible.
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It remains to be seen who is correct on the matter, though. But given that Iran are unlikely to give anyone access to inspect that which the US now considers (at least in public) to have been "obliterated", it is doubtful that anyone outside Iran will ever know for sure.
Which does put the world in a worse position, as there was a program of inspections by external agencies. That has now ended, I'm sure. So, thanks to Israel and the US, the world will be in the dark about the Iranian nuclear program going forward. Possibly up until the moment they demonstrate that they have a nuclear bomb?
Of course, if the US and Israel are correct about the state of the Iranian facilities, then job done for a decade or so.
But are they correct? Do we trust Trump and Netanyahu, especially when the US' own intelligence agency suggests otherwise?

As to the bunker-buster... it demonstrated that it could do what it was intended to do, which is to explode well below ground. Unfortunately it has also exposed just how to combat such a weapon: have your bunkers sufficiently below the surface.
 
Sarkus said:
It remains to be seen who is correct on the matter, though. But given that Iran are unlikely to give anyone access to inspect that which the US now considers (at least in public) to have been "obliterated", it is doubtful that anyone outside Iran will ever know for sure.
Which does put the world in a worse position, as there was a program of inspections by external agencies. That has now ended, I'm sure. So, thanks to Israel and the US, the world will be in the dark about the Iranian nuclear program going forward. Possibly up until the moment they demonstrate that they have a nuclear bomb?
Of course, if the US and Israel are correct about the state of the Iranian facilities, then job done for a decade or so.
But are they correct? Do we trust Trump and Netanyahu, especially when the US' own intelligence agency suggests otherwise?

As to the bunker-buster... it demonstrated that it could do what it was intended to do, which is to explode well below ground. Unfortunately it has also exposed just how to combat such a weapon: have your bunkers sufficiently below the surface.
Click to expand...
A lot may come down to the degree to which Iran's security has been compromised by Mossad. It certainly seems to have been to quite an impressive extent so far.
 
The CIA have said that new information backs Trump's claim that the sites have been severely damaged. But how much can anyone actually trust what the CIA say these days. It is quite possible they simply put together reports to support whatever Trump wants, rather than offer (at least to the public) an actual independent assessment.

"Give me a report that supports my claims!"
"But sir, the intelligence suggests...."
"I don't want the truth! I can't handle the truth! Give me a report that supports my claim. Even if it's hallucinated by chatGPT!"
 
New Republic writer Greg Sargent (another refugee from WaPo) talks with veteran national security expert Bradley Moss about the 47 admin Iran scam.

newrepublic.com

Transcript: MAGA Dope Pete Hegseth’s Tantrum Exposes Trump’s Iran Scam

As Pete Hegseth and other loyalists rage at tough reporting on Trump’s Iran bombing, a veteran national security lawyer separates truth from lies and warns that MAGA’s propaganda on this will get worse.
newrepublic.com newrepublic.com

President Donald Trump and his top advisers have worked themselves up into a pathological fury about the leaked intelligence assessment that casts doubt on the success of Trump’s bombing of Iran, a story that has consumed Washington. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ranted wildly about it during a press conference with Trump at the NATO summit, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt went full North Korea in praise of Trump with one of her most absurdly obsequious performances yet. Both of them went full throttle in attacking intelligence officials for leaking the assessment. All of which raises a question: Will this administration ever officially tell the truth about the Iran mission, given that everything always must serve the cult of Trump above all else? Today we’re trying to unravel all this with someone who lives deep in the bowels of the deep state and can explain it really well: veteran national security lawyer Bradley Moss....
 
TheVat said:
New Republic writer Greg Sargent (another refugee from WaPo) talks with veteran national security expert Bradley Moss about the 47 admin Iran scam.

newrepublic.com

Transcript: MAGA Dope Pete Hegseth’s Tantrum Exposes Trump’s Iran Scam

As Pete Hegseth and other loyalists rage at tough reporting on Trump’s Iran bombing, a veteran national security lawyer separates truth from lies and warns that MAGA’s propaganda on this will get worse.
newrepublic.com newrepublic.com

President Donald Trump and his top advisers have worked themselves up into a pathological fury about the leaked intelligence assessment that casts doubt on the success of Trump’s bombing of Iran, a story that has consumed Washington. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ranted wildly about it during a press conference with Trump at the NATO summit, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt went full North Korea in praise of Trump with one of her most absurdly obsequious performances yet. Both of them went full throttle in attacking intelligence officials for leaking the assessment. All of which raises a question: Will this administration ever officially tell the truth about the Iran mission, given that everything always must serve the cult of Trump above all else? Today we’re trying to unravel all this with someone who lives deep in the bowels of the deep state and can explain it really well: veteran national security lawyer Bradley Moss....
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The goat rodeo continues......
 
Assessment of Israeli/US attacks on Iranian nuclear program facilities from the Institute for Science and International Security.

Includes site by site breakdown of damage to Natanz, Fordow, Esfahan, TABA/TESA Karaj Centrifuge Manufacturing site, Sanjarian, and IR-40 Arak, aka Khondab, Heavy Water Reactor and Heavy Water Production Plant.


Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

In brief:
Overall, Israel's and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack. That being said, there are residuals such as stocks of 60 percent, 20 percent, and 3-5 percent enriched uranium and the centrifuges manufactured but not yet installed at Natanz or Fordow. These non-destroyed parts pose a threat as they can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium.
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