Apocalypse Soon?

[Russ_Watters]

Shale gas (fracked natural gas) is often touted as a hopeful alternative to oil. Here is very well researched article that shows that we might not be able to rely on natural gas to offset the effects of peak oil:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/21/shale-gas-peak-oil-economic-crisis


Note that the European scientists at the Energy Watch Group essentially confirm the US Department of Defense forecast for a real crisis to begin by 2015. If shale gas production begins to decline at the same time as world oil production, we will be in big trouble. This seems like a pretty interesting thing to discuss.

---Futilitist

Environmentalist luddites are bearish on oil?!? I'm shocked!

 

[billvon]

Environmentalist luddites are bearish on oil?!? I'm shocked!

Next thing you know, an environmental group will claim that nuclear power is dangerous!

 

[Futilitist]

Environmentalist luddites are bearish on oil?!? I'm shocked!

Hello Russ. Would you mind elaborating on that a bit? What environmental luddites are you referring to? Certainly not the European scientists at the Energy Watch Group or the US Department of Defense. You don't mean the journalists at the Guardian, do you?

---Futilitist

 

[Russ_Watters]

Hello Russ. Would you mind elaborating on that a bit? What environmental luddites are you referring to? Certainly not the European scientists at the Energy Watch Group or the US Department of Defense.

1. I haven't seen your reference from the US DOD, so if you posted it and I missed it I'm sorry, but could you post it again? All I saw was a conspiracy theory article (from the same blogger as below) about how the US is bracing for martial law, and a misquote from you about how likely they think that scenario is. I remember similar conspiracy theories about how each of the last three Presidents would be using some crisis or another to seize dictatorial power. Just rehashed, nutty nonsense. In either case, I would be more likely to accept a 2013 EIA report than a 2010 DOD report, yes, for the two obvious reasons.
2. The journalist does indeed appear to be such a radical "environmentalist". The article is a mixture of conspiracy theory and citations from other radical environmentalists.
3. The "Energy Watch Group" was created by a German politician who is one of the architects of Germany's disastrous anti-nuclear energy policy. Yes, he's a radical environmentalist too. Their current study is an update of their 2008 study, which "predicted" peak oil was in 2006 and we'd be seeing a substantial production drop by now. The new study says Peak Oil was in 2012, so we won't have to wait long until we find out if they're just as wrong this time as they were last time. Needless to say, their estimate differs widely from what institutions without agendas predict.
4. The article also cites several others, such as the "Post Carbon Institute".

 

[Russ_Watters]

Meh, I'll just skip the cat and mouse and just crush you right now:

Tight oil production has grown rapidly, but that rate of growth cannot be maintained. As soon as US tight oil production stops growing, world oil production overall will begin to decline. The US Department of Defense thinks we will reach that point by 2015.

The DOD report refers to production capacity growth being too slow to meet rising demand. It says that investment in new production has been lacking and because of that, while the production is expected to increase, it may not increase fast enough. It does not say that production will be falling.

Your luddite environmentalist cohorts have poor reading comprehension skills due to their blinding biases. And while I'm certain you haven't read the study, I'm not going to link it for you even though I found it. Your willful ignorance is not an acceptable excuse for just buying the crap that those crackpots are selling. Being ignorant is not a way to prove an hypothesis in science.

 

[Billy T]

There are two different POVs about why an economic collapse is coming:
(1) Oil is too costly and growing short in supply with cost rising for "oil addicted" modern economies to survive.
VS.
(2) Debt is too high and thin-air money printing will cause first economy killing interest rate rise and then collapse of the dollar.

Above graph shows the second is more likely to be correct.

 

[Fraggle Rocker]

The DOD report refers to production capacity growth being too slow to meet rising demand.

It's conceivable that the Paradigm Shift to an information-based economy will halt the rise in demand and perhaps even reverse it. I have very little faith in DoD's ability to divine the future, since that's not their kind of thinking. Military types who get off on death and destruction have a hard time imagining a future in which new communication technology will bring people closer together and make them more reluctant to kill each other.

Commuting alone accounts for 25% of America's petroleum consumption. And that doesn't count the indirect costs of people schlepping themselves back and forth across the landscape every day, like energy-intensive fast food for people who can't get home in time for dinner, health clubs for people who don't have time to walk anywhere, nannies driving around town to take care of children whose parents never see them when they're awake, and an army of plumbers, electricians, gardeners, etc., doing chores that we could easily do for ourselves, if only we could spend more time at home.

As the current generation of dinosaur-era managers dies off, to be replaced by people who have been texting, using chat rooms and playing MMORPGS since they were old enough to work a keyboard, the idea that you have to be in the same room with somebody in order to manage him and evaluate his performance will become rather quaint.

Other changes are coming that we can't possibly predict, any more than the farmers in the 17th century (who comprised 99% of the world population) could foresee a 40-hour week, universal literacy, a surplus-driven economy that needs an industry called "advertising," professionally composed and performed music available 24/7, or the ability to ever travel more than 20 miles from their birthplace.

The signature commodity of the Information Age is, duh, information. It has the unique feature of being able to be reproduced and delivered for almost literally no cost, once it has been created. This will turn economics on its head. It will also greatly reduce the per-capita consumption of energy.

 

[Trippy]

As the current generation of dinosaur-era managers dies off, to be replaced by people who have been texting, using chat rooms and playing MMORPGS since they were old enough to work a keyboard, the idea that you have to be in the same room with somebody in order to manage him and evaluate his performance will become rather quaint.

Especially when I'm logged in with full access to all of my work place data on my other monitor.

The only catch (for me at least) is that not everything that should be in my work places EDRMS is in my work places EDRMS. So occasionally I need to refer back to paper files.

 

[Russ_Watters]

I have very little faith in DoD's ability to divine the future, since that's not their kind of thinking. Military types who get off on death and destruction have a hard time imagining a future in which new communication technology will bring people closer together and make them more reluctant to kill each other.

Definitely agree and to their credit they didn't actually generate any such predictions in the report, they just reported the predictions of experts like the EIA. They stuck to what they know, which is security analysis. Another reason why Futilitist's citation of the paper was in error.

 

[Futilitist]

Breaking News:

The Oil Drum Runs Dry

I logged on to theoildrum this morning, as usual, and I was quite surprised to see this:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10059#comments_top

An End to Eight years of The Oil Drum

Posted by Rembrandt on July 3, 2013 - 5:47am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: the oil drum, tod [list all tags]
Dear Readers of The Oil Drum,

A few weeks ago the ISEOF board (The Institute for Energy and Our Future that facilitates The Oil Drum), Euan, Super G, JoulesBurn, and Myself, met to discuss the future of The Oil Drum. A discussion we have had several times in the last year, due to scarcity of new content caused by a dwindling number of contributors. Despite our best efforts to fill this gap we have not been able to significantly improve the flow of high quality articles.

Because of this and the high expense of running the site, the board has unanimously decided that the best course of action is to convert the site to a static archive of previously published material as of 31st July 2013. We will continue to post articles up to this date. Afterwards any articles will be held as a public archive into the foreseeable future, so that others can continue to learn from the breadth and depth of knowledge published by our many authors, over the 8+ history of this remarkable volunteer effort.

We sincerely thank everyone who has been part of the TOD community - authors, staff and especially commenter's and readers - for contributing to the success of the site. It is unusual for a site which is based primarily on volunteer effort to continue this long.

Oh well. So long, theoildrum. :blbl:

And this story is also interesting:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...above-100-on-egypt-unrest-u-s-stockpiles.html

WTI Rises Above $100 on Drop in U.S. Stockpiles, Egypt Unrest

Crude oil advanced, with West Texas Intermediate surpassing $100 a barrel for the first time in nine months, on shrinking U.S. stockpiles and concern that political turmoil in Egypt may disrupt Middle Eastern supply.

Futures rose as much 2.6 percent in New York after climbing to the highest settlement price in 14 months. Crude inventories fell by 9.4 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday.

Brent for August settlement rose as much as $1.75, or 1.7 percent, to $105.75 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $4.06 to WTI. The spread was $4.40 yesterday, the narrowest based on closing prices since Jan. 4, 2011. It was more than $23 in February.

WTI is up more than 15% since April 15, while Brent is up only about 6%, so the unrest in Egypt is not as important as shrinking US stockpiles. And weekly crude inventories don't usually fall by 9.6 million barrels. Why would that happen? I thought fracking was supposed to save us. :bugeye:

WTI is currently trading at $101.40. It has been as high as $102.10, just about an hour ago. Last Monday, WTI was trading at about $93.00!

Oil spike?

---Futilitist

 

[Billy T]

... WTI is up more than 15% since April 15, while Brent is up only about 6%, so the unrest in Egypt is not as important as shrinking US stockpiles. And weekly crude inventories don't usually fall by 9.6 million barrels. Why would that happen? I thought fracking was supposed to save us. .. ---Futilitist

From memory: A month or so ago, the US inventories were the highest in the 80 years that records have been kept. If my memory is correct, I bet that even after 9.6 million barrels draw down, they are still well above the longer term (10+ years or more) average, but not good at searching, so just ask you to tell what peak stored inventories were -I.e. what fraction is the 9.6 million barrel drop?

It is hard to rapidly slow down production as demand drops. - Why inventories hit the all time high.

On the 6% vs. 15% changes the gap between Brent - WTI has been deceasing for some time, again from memory. I.e. this is more of the same, not much related to Egypt problems, but the rise in price of both is as Egypt controls the Suez Canal, - still important for transport of oil to Eastern Europe, even in the age of supper tankers.

Next day by edit: Here is graph that makes my point. I.e. inventories are still far ABOVE the running 10 year average.

 

[Futilitist]

From memory: A month or so ago, the US inventories were the highest in the 80 years that records have been kept. If my memory is correct, I bet that even after 9.6 million barrels draw down, they are still well above the longer term (10+ years or more) average, but not good at searching, so just ask you to tell what peak stored inventories were -I.e. what fraction is the 9.6 million barrel drop?

It is hard to rapidly slow down production as demand drops. - Why inventories hit the all time high.

On the 6% vs. 15% changes the gap between Brent - WTI has been deceasing for some time, again from memory. I.e. this is more of the same, not much related to Egypt problems, but the rise in price of both is as Egypt controls the Suez Canal, - still important for transport of oil to Eastern Europe, even in the age of supper tankers.

Next day by edit: Here is graph that makes my point. I.e. inventories are still far ABOVE the running 10 year average.

The 9.6 million barrel a day decline in inventories was the biggest reduction in more than ten years.

http://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Markets/Oil-Market-Forecast-Review-5th-July-2013.html

The decline of nearly 10.0 million barrels was the biggest reduction in more than 10 years. The drawdown took traders by surprise, triggering the sharp upside breakout. The rapidly tightening supplies could mean the start of long uptrend.

Would an oil spike surprise you, Billy T?

---Futilitist

 

[Russ_Watters]

Breaking News:

The Oil Drum Runs Dry

I logged on to theoildrum this morning, as usual, and I was quite surprised to see this:

Oh well. So long, theoildrum. :blbl:

Yeah, it's a rough time to be PeakOilPocalypto. Perhaps in a few decades when shale oil starts to level-out PeakOilism will make a comeback - if technology-driven conservation hasn't already dropped demand past the point it matters anymore.

 

[Fraggle Rocker]

Perhaps in a few decades when shale oil starts to level-out PeakOilism will make a comeback - if technology-driven conservation hasn't already dropped demand past the point it matters anymore.

Like when this generation of Stone Age managers retire, to be replaced by kids who grew up with the internet, webcams and "please pass the mouse" meeting software, and therefore don't see any reason why everybody who's working on a project has to be crammed into the same building. Telecommuting will reduce America's petroleum consumption by more than 25%.

 

[billvon]

Like when this generation of Stone Age managers retire, to be replaced by kids who grew up with the internet, webcams and "please pass the mouse" meeting software, and therefore don't see any reason why everybody who's working on a project has to be crammed into the same building. Telecommuting will reduce America's petroleum consumption by more than 25%.

Well, some people can telecommute, some can't. We have a software guy who telecommutes from the East Coast to San Diego. But the hardware engineers can't do that.

 

[Futilitist]

Other changes are coming that we can't possibly predict, any more than the farmers in the 17th century (who comprised 99% of the world population) could foresee a 40-hour week, universal literacy, a surplus-driven economy that needs an industry called "advertising," professionally composed and performed music available 24/7, or the ability to ever travel more than 20 miles from their birthplace.

All of the things you listed are a byproduct of industrialization, which is highly dependent on cheap oil. Automation and mass production make it possible for enough people to have the free time and extra money to buy video games, music, and computers to run them on. That is what actually supports an "information economy". But as the real economy suffers from ever higher energy costs, less and less people will have the luxury of being able to spend so much of their time and money uselessly entertaining themselves. Without the economies of scale provided by infotainment, the cost of all information will rise. Thus, the information economy will collapse when the real economy can no longer support it.

The signature commodity of the Information Age is, duh, information. It has the unique feature of being able to be reproduced and delivered for almost literally no cost, once it has been created. This will turn economics on its head. It will also greatly reduce the per-capita consumption of energy.

Much of the value of the "signature commodity of the Information Age" depends upon the energy that cheap oil provides. As the basic cost of living rises exponentially, the value of "information" declines as a result. You can't eat information.

---Futilitist

 

[Write4U]

Apocalypse soon? For some this is already reality.

Watch this movie and be scared, how the fossil fuel industry values the entire ecosystem on earth and how they treat the "unalienable rights" of individuals and entire communities.

The title of this "must see" documentary is: Gasland Part II (currently showing on HBO)

Be forewarned, it is depressing but illustrates the duplicity and callous disregard to large numbers of individuals' health and environmental destruction by the fossil fuel industry and their bought representatives in congress

To further illustrate the scope, check your state, in case you don't know.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Fracking

Regulations

As of 2012, fracking is exempt from seven major federal regulations:[8]

The Clean Water Act and Safe Drinking Water Act, due to the "Halliburton loophole" pushed through by former Vice-President/former Halliburton CEO Dick Cheney, exempting corporations from revealing the chemicals used in fracking fluid;
the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, which exempts fracking from federal regulations pertaining to hazardous waste;
the Superfund law, which requires that polluters remediate for carcinogens like benzene released into the environment, except if they come from oil or gas;
the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act;
the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act;
the National Environmental Policy Act; and
the Toxic Release Inventory under the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act.

 

[Write4U]

I just realized that if BP had claimed that the spill in Gulf of Mexico was a result of fracking they would have been exempt from liability for clean-up and economic damages. Go figure.

 

[Russ_Watters]

The first "Gasland" was basically just a bunch of lies. I doubt the second is any better.

 

[Write4U]

The first "Gasland" was basically just a bunch of lies. I doubt the second is any better.

The film focuses mostly on Pennsylvania and the town of Dimock in particular. What I see is a frightening pattern developing with global implication.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Pennsylvania_and_fracking