Anyone following the submersible lost near the Titanic?

They are about 400 miles off the coast of Boston, in about 12,000 feet of water and communication has been lost since Sunday. No signs on the surface, no communications from below. It's not looking good.

I'm guessing there a crack/implosion or their oxygen system/rebreather failed and everyone passed out. I think there would be ways of dumping ballast and surfacing even if power were lost and I'd think back communications gear would be available especially for the surface.

So, the options as to what happened don't look good.

 

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It sounds unimaginably terrifying. I’ve read that if/when found, the vessel would need to be opened from the outside. Apparently, the entire crew is dead-bolted inside which means they can’t “break out” if it surfaces. There's no mechanism inside of the sub for the crew to open on their own if/when it emerges. Time is truly of the essence for this rescue mission.

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We should be close to where it would be ludicrous that a quasi-autonomous submersible was not available and in service, where AI takes over after _X_ amount of time transpires with no human operator activity. Automatically establishing communications with the surface (sending telemetry), and perhaps even being programmed safely to return to the surface if no return contact ensues. (Granting that a problem was merely life-support related rather than also other major technical problems.)

Given ROVs and UUVs, at the very least a remote control link option should be available if watercraft still aren't Jetson status worthy in the above respect. Any tour industry of this sort should get itself out of troglodyte country if it's truly devoted to safety.

If an AI autonomous recourse was the case, those on the surface would then know almost for certain that the submersible was either destroyed or so devastatingly kaput/damaged that it equated to much the same, if still no communication or independent self-rescue response ensued.
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I spent some years on a submarine, I just cringe at the thought of this.

 

I think it's most likely (given the other circumstances) that there was either a catastrophic implosion or something catastrophic from within such as a fire or the rebreather system failed.

Otherwise they could have snagged on something and lost power or the ability to communicate but I think this scenario is the least likely.

The third is that they are on the surface and no one has located them and I agree that would be hard to do. I've been scuba diving when the large commercial boat was to pick us up, we could see the boat and it was still hard for the boat to see us due to the waves and distance involved. Imagine a small submersible in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, painted white and largely carbon fiber!

However, I have to assume that the submersible, when on the surface, would have access at least to portable radios or EPIRB units. What I don't know (anyone here know?) is whether radio waves could get through the thick carbon fiber shell or the titanium end plates.

I tend to think that if they have been on the surface all this time that they would be able to at least use some backup radio but maybe not? Even if they are on the surface, they are bolted in and will still run out of air soon.

Everything still points to catastrophic issues (external or internal) from the initial communication loss given all that has followed otherwise they would be on the surface and they don't seem to be.

This structure didn't seem to be tested a lot and they may not be taken into account material fatigue. Given the immense pressures it may be that the hull could stand this environment for a few cycles and then just fail.

On paper it's supposed to be good to 14,000 feet but they are operating pretty close to that and I'm not sure that the carbon fiber has ever been tested to failure or the actual submersible tested to that depth or material fatigue taken into account?

 

I'm not a "materials" guy but when I saw them "gluing" the titanium to the carbon fiber and I've heard nothing of actual life cycle testing and environmental test and testing to failure, it just doesn't look like there was any "robustness" to the design process.

Boeing takes a section wing and puts weight on it until the wing breaks both to see what weight that is and also how it fails, suddenly, deformation first, etc.

Other mechanical system where flexing would occur, I'm sure, are tested over and over to "guarantee" a certain number of cycles. You would want the submersible to be able to go much deeper than 14,000 feet if you are going to routinely take it to 13,000 feet.

It's one thing to be able to handle a slow buildup of pressure and another when it suddenly runs into a hard surface and force is directed at one spot. They should a least be able to shoot up a line with a float attached (mechanically controlled for inside the hull) to mark the spot on the surface over the submersible.

You certainly should be able to use a radio on the surface, by design, even if this one can't.

Decompression shouldn't be an issue however. They are at ambient surface pressures.

Regarding the reports of banging. There is probably banging on the Titanic just due to the metal structure and currents but I saw something about the banging coming 30 minutes a part so I guess that is a good sign potentially. I hope they can at least get a ROV down there to at least search the area immediately around the Titanic.

I can't help but think this is a misidentified, naturally occurring sound. After this many days I doubt (?) they would still have the presence of mind to be banging on the hull every 30 minutes. I also question whether one could hear a bang against carbon fiber but maybe banging on the titanium would do the trick?

 

They may not be able to carry that much line, but as with diving, it really just requires tough "twine". That may still be too bulky of course.

The text system is a sonic system, radio doesn't work under water. They have (supposedly) a pinging system as well (every 20 minutes). That's what is even more puzzling (to me). Most systems like that (the ping) would be surface mounted and self contained with it's own battery) so that should be going off regardless if the main hull lost power.

The only hope that I can see is if it is tangled in something and a ROV can help untangle it and then it can rise on its own (there are systems that work even without battery power). That's the 1% hope though. Most signs point to a hull implosion on Sunday it seems to me.

 

One way it doesn't work is if the hull implodes suddenly.

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I've read that it has the two systems (text and ping). The ping locator, sounds to me, similar to the emergency locator beacon on an aircraft which is self powered. It makes no sense if the two black boxes and the emergency locator beacon (aircraft) only work with main battery power.

I'd like to see much more information on all the systems on this just out of curiosity. Apparently it has a lot of redundancy where rising to the surface is concerned but I'm not getting the vibe that there was enough redundancy for the other systems but who knows? I certainly wouldn't get in an untethered system with a bolted on hatch that could only be unbolted from the outside. Yikes!

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One report I've read, possibly not reliable though, suggested they didn't even have an ELT (emergency location transmitter), and that more than one person at the company previously warned that their "experimental" approach could result in "minor to catastrophic" issues. I think the current state could be defined as somewhere between minor and catastrophic. One employee was fired after voicing his concern (although reports suggest this was for disclosure of confidential information).

So time running out, even if they are still alive (which underwater sounds suggest might be the case), and they don't even know where they are, neither coordinates not depth, so outlook is, unfortunately, bleak.

 

I have seen a story that one issue raised by the ex-employee was the lack of certification of the glass viewing port to the requisite depth. But that would lead to sudden implosion, not consistent with these reports of sounds.

 

Yeah, I saw that story. Certified to 1300m or so, somewhat shallower than the 3800 to the Titanic. Apparently the waiver they signed prior to going mentioned possible death at least 3 times on just the first page.

 

I just read this after my post in Dave’s other thread related to this topic.

Yes, why did they not heed the warning? Whyyyy??

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$$$$, probably.

And perhaps some seepage of the prevailing culture of "move fast and break things", dismissal of experts as stick-in-the-muds that hold people back, etc. Even the aviation industry has not been immune, as the Boeing 737 disasters show.

In my personal view, submariners should employ an aviation culture. People going down 4k even more so. Space culture perhaps. But that is costly of course................

 

All they need to do is employ submariner culture.

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That was the problem, they didn't really seem to have any professional submariners as advisors.