4 Years to Save Earth!

buffalo said:
Earth orbit is exactly what explains the current warming trend.
No, it isn't changing fast enough or in the right way. You are trying to explain a hundred year trend with a 20,000 year cycle, and trying to explain a warming with a cooling phase of that cycle.
buffalo said:
The fact that the US is only 2% of the surface of the earth is deceptive. 2/3 of the earth is covered by water where, presumably, temperature data is not collected. That means that the US is 6% of the measurable surface area.
They have several different reasonable ways of estimating global temps, collecting temp data over water, etc.
buffalo said:
In a stunning turn of events data (quietly) released by NASA shows that the 4 warmest years ever recorded occurred in the 1930's, with the warmest year on record being 1934 (not 1998). Lets see if Al Gore revises his road show. Update - Global Warming is actually a Y2K bug!
That's old news - here's the new numbers when the dust settled. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=37215 picture of the Greenland melt in '08.
 
No, it isn't changing fast enough or in the right way. You are trying to explain a hundred year trend with a 20,000 year cycle, and trying to explain a warming with a cooling phase of that cycle.
They have several different reasonable ways of estimating global temps, collecting temp data over water, etc. That's old news - here's the new numbers when the dust settled. [/QUOTE] It doesn't have to chan...8"] http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Yes, the graph's, nice 20 year records from 1880 to 2000, which shows a -.14 cooling in the last 8 years, from their it is a WAG, it jumps 500 years, and by the end of the Graph we are look at a 1000 year projection, also called WAG


Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and the oceans since the mid-twentieth century and its projected continuation.

Projected continuation? based on what? that Wiki does not include any of the Milankovitch Cycles, or show that it used numbers that were adjusted to account for the forcing of the Temperature readings.

[urlhttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=37215[/url] picture of the Greenland melt in '08.

Really?

Then explain this? The Ice coverage has returned to near normal/normal.

Wait for it to load.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent: In October 2008, Fastest Ever Growth

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

As expected a few days ago: October 2008 has seen the fastest Arctic sea ice extent growth ever recorded. According to the data published by IARC-JAXA, the amount of growth has reached 3,481,575 square kilometers for the month, or 112,319 sq km per day on average.

The previous maximum was October 2007, with 3,330,937 sq km for the month and 107,450 sq km per day on average. Record shrinkage remains July 2007, with 2,913,593 sq km lost and 93,987 sq km per day on average.

Growth should be starting leveling off now. November values could be as high as 2,179,844 sq km (2002) or as low as 964,688 sq km (2006).

arcticseaiceoct28animated800ms.gif
 
Yes, ice the earth is suppose to be dead today:

http://tapc.ca/2008/11/predictions-of-disaster-were-wrong/

More predictions of impending disaster:

In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish. — Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day (1970)

Yes, the earth is suppose to dead today, we are in even worse shape today than we were in in the 1970tys, according the THE ALGORE

‘New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now,’ - St. Louis Post-Dispatch Sept. 17, 1989

“…civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind,” biologist George Wald, Harvard University, April 19, 1970.

By 1995, “…somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.” Sen. Gaylord Nelson, quoting Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, Look magazine, April 1970.

Because of increased dust, cloud cover and water vapor “…the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born,” Newsweek magazine, January 26, 1970.

The world will be “…11 degrees colder in the year 2000 (this is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age),” Kenneth Watt, speaking at Swarthmore University, April 19, 1970.

“By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half…” Life magazine, January 1970.

Source: Press Release, “Earth Day 2008: Predictions of Environmental Disaster Were Wrong,” Washington Policy Center, April 22, 2008.

Yes, the earth is suppose to dead today, we are in even worse shape today than we were in in the 1970tys, according the THE ALGORE

Col. Bernt Balchen, polar explorer and flier, is circulating a paper among polar specialists proposing that the Arctic pack ice is thinning and that the ocean at the North Pole may become an open sea within a decade or two. – New York Times - February 20, 1969

The United States and the Soviet Union are mounting large-scale investigations to determine why the Arctic climate is becoming more frigid, why parts of the Arctic sea ice have recently become ominously thicker and whether the extent of that ice cover contributes to the onset of ice ages. – New York Times - July 18, 1970

Yes, the earth is suppose to dead today, we are in even worse shape today than we were in in the 1970tys, according the THE ALGORE

The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. — Paul Ehrlich - The Population Bomb (1968)
 
buffalo said:
Then explain this? The Ice coverage has returned to near normal/normal.
That site is one I have bookmarked for years, and have linked for you a couple of times.

Unfortunately its coverage gear screwed up recently, and the very latest days are not available, but if you look at this: http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=12&fd=25&fy=2006&sm=12&sd=25&sy=2008 you can see that this past December is not notably different from the December preceding the great thaw of '07 - when the summer ice hit its lowest recorded level.

So whether ice coverage has suddenly been restored, and normality returned (minus all the old ice that melted recently, of course, and cannot be replaced in a year), remains to be seen.

My money's on further thawing, although perhaps not to the '07 level until we have been out of the current cold snap for a couple of years.
 
That site is one I have bookmarked for years, and have linked for you a couple of times.

Unfortunately its coverage gear screwed up recently, and the very latest days are not available, but if you look at this: http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=12&fd=25&fy=2006&sm=12&sd=25&sy=2008 you can see that this past December is not notably different from the December preceding the great thaw of '07 - when the summer ice hit its lowest recorded level.

So whether ice coverage has suddenly been restored, and normality returned (minus all the old ice that melted recently, of course, and cannot be replaced in a year), remains to be seen.

My money's on further thawing, although perhaps not to the '07 level until we have been out of the current cold snap for a couple of years.

ice, NOAA is admitting to cooling.

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/JournalPDFs/RandelEtal.JGR2009.pdf

Temperature changes in the lower stratosphere show cooling of
0.5 K/decade over much of the globe for 1979–2007,

Substantially larger cooling
trends are observed in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during spring and summer, in
association with development of the Antarctic ozone hole.

The results show
mean cooling of 0.5–1.5 K/decade during 1979–2005,
 
buffalo said:
That's the stratosphere, Buffalo. Whatever website is handing you this stuff is playing you for a fool.

One of the effects of CO2 heat trapping in the lower atmosphere is a cooling of the upper atmosphere in the short term, until the lower atmosphere heats up enough to up-radiate the extra itself and make up for the pass-through deficit.
 
That's the stratosphere, Buffalo. Whatever website is handing you this stuff is playing you for a fool.

One of the effects of CO2 heat trapping in the lower atmosphere is a cooling of the upper atmosphere in the short term, until the lower atmosphere heats up enough to up-radiate the extra itself and make up for the pass-through deficit.

Now provide factual citation of your premise.

As the air cools at stratosphere level it's density increases and it sinks, and warm air rises, creating circulation, which then brings cold air down into the troposphere, exchanging the warm air for colder air, mitigating the GHG effects, and affecting the climate models.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conte...&volume=316&firstpage=1576&resourcetype=HWCIT

http://atoc.colorado.edu/~seand/headinacloud/?p=135

The guts of the article elaborate on the connection between the stratosphere and troposphere, then use that foundation to emphasize the importance of including stratospheric effects in models. A summary of the main points are given below.
1). Greenhouse Gases (including ozone) can heat or cool the atmosphere depending on the balance between absorption and emission. This balance depends on altitude and temperature.
2). Overall cooling in stratosphere due to carbon dioxide and ozone depletion (ozone is primary culprit in lower stratosphere). Lower stratosphere radiative changes are mainly latitude dependent, thus cooling at poles and warming in tropics.3). Latitudinal dependence = change in north-south temperature gradient, thus a change in the lower stratospheric wind structure.
4). A change in wind structure will modify atmospheric Rossby waves (which propagate from the troposphere into the stratosphere). These changes in turn affect weather and climate at the Earth’s surface.

Then the article gives some examples of connections between the stratosphere and troposphere to further drive the point home. Next models and their stratospheric limitations are discussed. Again, a summary is given below.

1). Coupled atmosphere-ocean models - many include radiative effects of ozone depletion and ozone depleting substances but do not include changes in the ozone layer or the dynamics of troposphere/stratosphere coupling.
2). IPCC models - most have a fixed stratospheric ozone forcing constant, thus dynamical responses to stratospheric radiative changes are not likely captured.
3). Climate models with well-represented stratospheres - accurately account for stratospheric circulations changes due to climate change but fail to correctly propagate these variations downwards into the troposphere. Most damp out tropospheric responses by using prescribed ocean-surface temperatures.
4). Some coupled chemistry-climate models can simulate ozone changes and how that couples to climate change. According to these models ozone recovery will be accelerated because of the stratosphere cooling due to increasing greenhouse gases. A cooler atmosphere will slow down chemical reactions which destroy ozone. Pre-1980 levels should be reached by the middle of this century and become thicker beyond 2050 as the stratosphere cools.

Now we have a list of ways the stratosphere influences the troposphere, thus should be included in climate models. So the stratosphere is changed by and changes the meridional temperature gradient, which then affect ozone levels and circulations in the stratosphere. Eventually these changes propagate down into the troposphere, where they are not always accurately accounted for.

The chart below was not produced by Douglass and Christy, it was produced using their data and it clearly shows that in the past four years -- the period corresponding to reduced solar activity -- all of the rise in global temperatures since 1979 has disappeared.

Professor Christy has been in charge of NASA's eight weather satellites that take more than 300,000 temperature readings daily around the globe.

893554.bin
 
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Re

Global Warming is defined as the increase of the average temperature on Earth. As the Earth is getting hotter, disasters like hurricanes, droughts and floods are getting more frequent. But it is not only about how much the Earth is warming, it is also about how fast it is warming.

Global Warming as a chain of events:
1. Permafrost: Currently the measured effect of global warming as caused by the greenhouse effect on the planet overall is approximately a 1 degree Celsius increase over the last 50 years. that one-degree of heat made you take off a sweater, segments of the Earth known as permafrost began a meltdown. Permafrost is a condition whereby sections of the Earth’s surface have remained at a temperature below freezing (0 degrees Celsius) for at least two years.
2. Tundra: Tundra describes the soil above permafrost that is frozen for most of the calendar year but thaws for allowance of small amounts of vegetation growth. Areas of Tundra throughout the world serve as sinks for absorption of massive amounts of Carbon.
3. Polar meltdown: The Next is the warming of our polar caps and oceans. An increase in overall temperature for the troposphere allows that segment of the atmosphere to absorb more water vapor. A 1% increase in water vapor is a huge increase to the overall amount of greenhouse emissions.
4. Ocean Temperature and Positive Feedback: Our oceans digest most of the carbon footprint needing to be absorbed into our ecosystem. Currently greenhouse gas emissions from production of energy and internal combustion engines results in a 36% increase in carbon dioxide over that which the planets normal balance can support. The CO2 then slightly raises the Earth’s temperature resulting in an endlessly looping progression. This situation and scenario is known as positive feedback and this is the real danger inherent as global warming.
5. Environmental cause: Not all of global warming is the result of greenhouse gases and the ensuing greenhouse effect. As the population of the earth has increased mankind has brought civilization which includes buildings, highways, land cleared for agriculture, cities built where once stood deserts. Almost everything that we build absorbs more heat than its natural predecessor. It doesn’t mean that we tear down all of our houses to plant a forest of trees and carve up the superhighways and replace them with lovely green meadows. What we do need is an awareness of our situation. We need to realize that every move we make as a result of industrialization has a corresponding consequence.

______________________
globalwarmingsurvivalcenter.com
 
So, Dr James Hansen says we have only 4 years left to save the earth. After that, it will be too late.

Dr. James Hansen made some asinine prediction if my memory serves correctly that New York City should already be experiencing some major flooding. That was twenty years ago. I linked to it once, but I won't bother myself to again.

Either or, I thought bin Laden was supposed to have killed us Americans dead if we didn't bomb the fuck outta em dummy A-rabs first. Which is gonna gettus first?

Oh, too late. He beat me to it..

Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda, blamed the United States and developed countries for not halting climate change and said that the global economy should immediately abandon its reliance on the American dollar, according to an audiotape released Friday by the broadcaster Al Jazeera. "Talk about climate change is not an ideological luxury but a reality," Mr. bin Laden was quoted as saying in...

I remember when this story came out.
Sadly, two links I had originally hoped to include here, one to the Washington Post, the other to the New York Times, were both dead or removed. Was this story too embarrassing for them to continue to keep it active?

Nonetheless, here is a funny title for you:
Osama bin Laden, Climate Expert

I will not apologize for or defend whatever politics you may find in that article. Just put it there because this
We have failed to find Osama bin Laden after eight years, and now he is opining on our climate-change policies and calling for an economic boycott. I’m waiting for the right wing to go ballistic.

...has a link to this

Obviously a more reputable news source that didn't think bin Laden's timely chastisement about climate change needed to be seen six months or so later. I wonder why they are so uncaring about the state of polar bears in our world today?

www.nytimes.com/2010/01/30/world/middleeast/30binladen.html

That one is for MEMBERS ONLY! TUT TUT!!!

You should be even MORE scared of ol' Beardo and the Global Oven Effect.
 
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So, Dr James Hansen says we have only 4 years left to save the earth. After that, it will be too late.

I have just one request. Four years from now, after we've done nothing, will global warming alarmists please finally shut up since it will then be "too late"?



Oh Please...

Once upon a time the co2 and all other So called Global warming gases were were twice as high In the Atmospere..

Question is wtf are we supposed to do about a sun that is warming us up, Deni it if you must, but explain the warming of our other Planets In the solar system.

Why do so many People apparently smart People only see part of the bigger picture,
 
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giambattista said:
Dr. James Hansen made some asinine prediction if my memory serves correctly
It never has before, in this matter.

The oddity of the Foxnews crowd being largely unable to remember what people have said over the years is perhaps best explained by examining their media environment - here's an example of their environment's typical reporting on what James Hansen has been saying (and Hansen is in fact an alarmist, a polemical and politically active member of the AGW research community, who has gone out on limbs from time to time): http://newsbusters.org/node/13114

Notice how little of it is quoted material, and none of that in context.

So what they remember as what James Hansen said is what somebody - one of their media voices - told them James Hansen said, told them repeatedly over several years. That's in the more or less sane case, where they remember what somebody else said as what somebody else said - the cases where they remember what they read of their own typing as what somebody else said would be a little sad if they were less common.
 
A little known 20 year old climate change prediction by Dr. James Hansen – that failed badly
He likely doesn’t remember this one interview he gave to a book author approximately 20 years ago, but fortunately that author recounted the interview on Salon.com. What is most interesting about this particular Hansen interview is that he dispenses with the usual models and graphs, and makes predictions about what will happen in 20 years to New York City, right in his own neighborhood. Sea level figures prominently.

Here’s the interview.

http://dir.salon.com/books/int/2001/10/23/weather/index.html

Salon.com-10/23/2001 said:
While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, "If what you're saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?" He looked for a while and was quiet and didn't say anything for a couple seconds. Then he said, "Well, there will be more traffic." I, of course, didn't think he heard the question right. Then he explained, "The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won't be there. The trees in the median strip will change." Then he said, "There will be more police cars." Why? "Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up."

Oh, but wait! Scratch 20 years. It could be 30 years!

From the original link

I’ve saved the Salon.com web page as a PDF also, here, just in case it should be deleted. So not only did Dr. Hansen make the claims in the late 1980′s, he reaffirmed his predictions again in 2001.

The scenario of the interview with Dr. Hansen looking out his window and describing the changes he envisions 20 years into the future is very plausible. As we established yesterday, Dr. Hansen’s NASA GISS office at 2880 Broadway in NYC, has a view of the Hudson River.

You'll have to read the rest of that interview in that link in order to get everything it's trying to say.

It concludes with this:
Even if we give Dr. Hansen the benefit of 30 years, I’ll point out that satellite measured rate of change of global sea level has slowed significantly in the last few years, and is not likely to rise enough to meet Dr. Hansen’s prediction even 30 years out. See this story.

He includes this graph of sea level data near Manhattan island.

It doesn't seem that Dr. Hansen's 20 year projection has yet occurred. Perhaps another 10 years or so will prove otherwise?

I don't know.

Just thought I would provide this to the person who said
So what they remember as what James Hansen said is what somebody - one of their media voices - told them James Hansen said, told them repeatedly over several years. That's in the more or less sane case, where they remember what somebody else said as what somebody else said - the cases where they remember what they read of their own typing as what somebody else said would be a little sad if they were less common.

Of course, this IS only a recounting of what one author claims to have heard from this particular scientist. Take it with a grain of salt.
 
Giambattista said:
Dr. James Hansen made some asinine prediction if my memory serves correctly

iceaura said:
It never has before, in this matter.
...
Notice how little of it is quoted material, and none of that in context.

Maybe just this once?

I did remember fairly accurately. At least in this accounting.

Was it accurate? Not? Did I not quote Dr. Hansen as adequately as is necessary? Or will you introduce some new criterion by which I will be rendered ineligible?
 
In case anyone is wondering, here is a link to the book in question.
story.gif


The Coming Storm: Extreme Weather And Our Terrifying Future


When did he say this will happen?

Within 20 or 30 years. And remember we had this conversation in 1988 or 1989.

Does he still believe these things?

Yes, he still believes everything. I talked to him a few months ago and he said he wouldn't change anything that he said then.

Anything to say, iceaura? Gonna blame me for regurgitating what can be found just floating about?

Maybe, if someone is adventurous, they could actually contact our wonderfully tax-funded James Hansen and inquire about this interview? Wonder if he would remember? Remember? Remember?
 
www.nytimes.com/2010/01/30/world/middleeast/30binladen.html

That one is for MEMBERS ONLY! TUT TUT!!!

You should be even MORE scared of ol' Beardo and the Global Oven Effect.

Apparently now that link works fine. I wonder if it's just I that couldn't see that link the first time?

TUT TUT!!! Let that be a lesson!

Bin Laden Adds Climate Change to List of Grievances Against U.S.

What else does BL add?

The authenticity of the tape could not be immediately confirmed, and Al Jazeera, which is based in Qatar, did not say how it had obtained the message.

But if substantiated, it would be Mr. bin Laden’s second public message within a week. On Sunday, Al Jazeera broadcast a one-minute tape in which Mr. bin Laden hailed the Dec. 25 attempt to bring down a plane bound for Detroit and warned of more attacks against the United States.

Mr. bin Laden, who is believed to be hiding in Pakistan near the Afghanistan border and has issued several other taped anti-West invectives, had not put one out in four months before the one about the attempted airline bombing.

Mr. bin Laden. :)

Mr. bin Laden hailed the allowed-on-the-plane underwear bomber. Cool. He trains really inept foot soldiers these days.

Whatever happened to the old days when he could do just about anything, like detonate nuclear bombs in the US and crash planes and disrupt communications from his command post?
 
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A few months ago was a program on Discovery, where he said can not highlight an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.
If you know some measurements, please link.

Also increase the global temperature is 1 degree in the last 100 years.That is normal for the exit period of glaciation.
If I remember in the '70s, people were scared that comes global cooling. :D

What was revealed, is changing the earth axis.This may cause moving poles of the earth.That means, melting ice from an side and ice growth on the other side.

So, Dr James Hansen says we have only 4 years left to save the earth. After that, it will be too late.

I am willing to risk money to make a bet that will not be so.Are amateurs who hold this bet?And what rate? :rolleyes:
 
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So, Dr James Hansen says we have only 4 years left to save the earth. After that, it will be too late.

David Bowie always stated we have five years:

"Pushing thru the market square, so many mothers sighing
News had just come over, we had five years left to cry in
News guy wept and told us, earth was really dying
Cried so much his face was wet, then I knew he was not lying"

:)
 
This thread is from January 2009. So we only have 2 1/2 years left to save the earth! Well, it could be worse:
images

Flash, I love you. But we only have 14 hours to save the earth!
 
giambattista said:
Was it accurate? Not? Did I not quote Dr. Hansen as adequately as is necessary? Or will you introduce some new criterion by which I will be rendered ineligible?
A minor uncertainty would be the "12 or 13 years ago" bit, which might with reasonable allowance for memory lapse give the great flood a couple more years to happen.

The major uncertainty is what exactly was meant, the exact wording and context, by the key introductory phrase "If what you're saying about the greenhouse effect is true - - - "

What was he saying, immediately preceding ? Was that the reference, and if not what was the reference? It's the difference between a single, definite prediction and an example of possibility within a predicted range.

Again we have this odd inability to nail the thing. Ehrlich wrote a book, which is not as bad it is made out to be but does establish his actual intent and language and implications. Didn't Hansen write anything down?

Remains only the comment that failure to occur does not make the prediction asinine. So we got lucky?
 
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